Words and Deeds
Following Up on Promises from Yushchenko
If you know of any promises I have missed, especially if you have a source to give me as well, please email me. Also note, however, that it is much better if you have a website link to a legitimate news source for your promise, as I would like to stick with promises I am sure about. This also means I will not put up items like the rumor that Yu promised Kuchma freedom from prosecution, or promised Tymoshenko that she'd be made Prime Minister, because I don't have enough evidence.
On a suggestion from reader Johannes Andersen, I will be rating promises on a scale, rather than just saying "kept" or "broken". This will help me deal with the less extreme circumstances. For example, it would be difficult to assign either a kept or broken status if Yushchenko's government instituted a number of job-growth policies, there was real large-scale job growth, but analysts did not expect growth to reach the five million jobs Yushchenko promised in his ten steps.
(++) Kept - promise clearly fulfilled
(+) Positive - policies follow up on promise, Yushchenko government should be credited for the efforts
(0) Inconclusive - I am currently uncertain about whether or not this promise is being met or I currently do not have enough information.
(-) Negative - policies either do not seem to be aimed to fulfill this promise, or are actively counterproductive
(--) Broken - promise clearly not fulfilled
Abbreviations
I will also be providing a lot of news site links as evidence, so rather than repeating the big names all the time, I will use the following acronyms (more to come):
AUR : Action Ukraine Report
EDM : Eurasia Daily Monitor
RL : Radio Liberty
UDR : Ukraine Daily Report
UJ : Ukrainian Journal
UP : Ukrainska Pravda
and of course AP is the Associated Press.
For an invaluable resource on Yushchenko's promises, just go straight to his site. Many of his promises are right here, in a separate section on his decrees.
Promises
- Melnychenko Tapes / Gongadze Affair (--)
Abdymok kindly forwarded me this link to an EDM article which states:
The promise to solve the Gongadze case was one of the main slogans of Yushchenko's election campaign. Addressing the Council of Europe after his inauguration, Yushchenko pledged that closure would be achieved within two months. He entrusted the Gongadze case to Piskun, who had been sacked as prosecutor-general by President Leonid Kuchma in 2003 -- reportedly for coming too close to solving Gongadze's murder -- and was reinstated in this position during the Orange Revolution.
Two months from his day in front of the Council of Europe puts us on 25 Mar 05. Yushchenko has mentioned having the car Gongadze was kidnapped in and the actual killers or immediate witnesses to the death of Gongadze (referred to by the Yushchenko government as the "immediate participants in his kidnapping and killing"). (more here) But as he admits in calling them the tools, the important people to have in custody are the planners. In addition, now the location of the tapes is in question, with Russian oligarch Boris Berezovsky claiming he has them, and lots of accusations floating around. With no trial, a broken promise on resolution by the end of March, and lots of confusion, I'm giving this larger promise a negative rating.
After months since this posting, and with a different shady businessman saying he had the tapes, I have heard almost nothing indicating progress from the YuGov. The promise already has a negative rating, but if they don't get a lot closer to resolution by July, I'm going to give it a double negative, regardless of whether or not they do ultimately close the case.
The trial of the three police officers thought to be directly responsible has begun, but their case will not involve any search for the persons who ordered them to kill Gongadze. This is happening in January 2006. I have posted on the blog about Ukraine's incompetent judiciary, and the lack of progress on this case is further evidence. A broken promise if I've ever seen one.
- Pull Ukrainian Troops Out of Iraq (++)
As part of his campaign, Yushchenko promised to pull Ukrainian troops out of Iraq. I do not remember his having given a date. This promise I will rate as positive. For a source on him keeping the promise, go here. You can also look here. The government appears to be pulling out troops in a measured withdrawl, and continues to state that all troops will be withdrawn by the end of the year.
The troops have been withdrawn and all that remains is a tiny advisory group. Promise kept.
- Make Yanukovych's Pension Increase Permanent (++)
My previous source for the promise was this Radio Liberty article. In the budget, pensions were set even above the Yanukovych levels.
Many analysts of the Ukrainian economy thought that such a large increase in pensions was incautious. SigmaBleyzer's comments on the budget from April 2005 are representative:
Taking into account the very ambitious increases in social security payments (including pension and minimum wage increases), the targeted deficit of 1.86% of GDP will be difficult to achieve. Although the revised budget gap target is low, the actual figure may be higher because the economy may find it difficult to adjust to significant changes in the business environment immediately implied by the Budget Law. Thus, the risk of a high budget deficit is substantial, which could have negative effects on the country's economic development.
Unfortunately, with the notable exception of Krivoryzhstal, there has been little economic reform since last spring. The nice gesture towards pensioners is therefore not being supported by greater efficiency or savings elsewhere. It's still on the books, which is why this promise is listed as kept, but it will be part of negative economic ratings later on.
- Reprivatize Krivoryzhstal in 2005 (++)
Yushchenko promised to privatize Krivoryzhstal in legitimate tender, unlike the travesty of the original. The reprivatization is still slated to occur, but I've heard nothing about the progress in ages. If I still haven't heard anything by July, I'm going to downgrade this to "uncertain".
I forgot to downgrade this in July, apologies. However, the privatization went through in a transparent manner in October. It has been one of very few clearly positive news items I've had to comment on in ages. Promise kept.
- Get the Odesa-Brody pipeline operating in 2005 (--)
This promise should have been a major part of Yushchenko's tenth step--profitable, transparent foreign policy--But I will deal with it separately here. I am confused about the direction the pipeline will start pumping. I believe the government is for pumping towards Europe, but I believe Yushchenko has also said he would be willing to let it pump in reverse for a while, just to get oil in it. I am looking for sources on that information, if you have any, please tell me.
This issue totally dropped off the map. I've heard nothing about it in ages. I will count this as broken, unless someone has information I've missed.
- Get Ukraine "Market Economy" Status from the European Union by June 2005 (-)
For a source on this promise I currently have this article from the UJ. You can also reference this UP article.
This goal was obviously not achieved in June. It was, however, achieved on December 1. I was torn about whether to give this item a full broken for being late, or some sort of weird comma-separated rating for at least getting in under the one-year mark.
I still believe Ukraine was arguably worthy of the rating as early as last summer, but Europe's foot dragging is at least understandable in light of the complications in Ukraine's progress towards the WTO. I'll address those in the next item, so I'll give this a simple negative, and put the harsher criticism next.
- Get Ukraine into the WTO by the End of 2005 (--)
I used this article from the UJ as a source for the promise. Yushchenko has talked about the WTO a lot and appealed to the US for help, but nothing concrete yet.
A major step in the right direction would be if the US were to repeal the Jackson-Vanik amendment. There was much empty talk about it throughout the year, but it didn't get through the Senate until December, and the House of Representative stalled until break, so they could put off thinking about it until the end of January. Disgraceful. Now it will come too late to be of any incentive to anyone, if, indeed, they vote fore it.
As for why this obvious step was overlooked for so long, the US-Ukraine Foundation (Who pushed the issue all 2005, I'm very sorry guys, thanks for trying) speculated: "There appears to be reluctance, [despite lack of outright opposition], in the House Ways and Means Committee (the Committee with primary jurisdiction for Jackson-Vanik, which Congress considers as a trade bill) to take up graduation legislation until it has the opportunity to review the U.S.- Ukraine bilateral protocol on Ukraine's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO)."
If that's true, the Representatives are trying to link the baby-step of Vanik with the much larger step of WTO entry. What kind of sense does that make? Way to support a political movement you all cheered last summer you orange-tie-wearing hypocrites.
Theoretically, this would only have been a minor handicap if Ukraine had been ready for WTO entry. But as is, through the stymying efforts of the Regions of Ukraine, Communists, SDPU(u), the Socialists and other malcontents, Ukraine has had necessary WTO-compliance legislation shot down in the Verkhovna Rada on multiple occasions. I mentioned one last summer. In November Yekhanurov got a couple more necessary pieces of legislation through, but according to Yushchenko that only brought the numbers up to 65% of requirements, and the passage of the laws was not without the usual loud Communist obstructionism we've come to expect. There has been progress, but it is unlikely that Ukraine will get in before fall of next year. Promise broken.
- Make Progress with the EU on Membership (--)
I know he has made this a priority, but I don't currently have the promise. I am looking for it.
For evidence of progress I currently have this from the EDM, as well as this OK site link.
The previous item on getting into the WTO is instructive. Some progress has been made. But there is still a long way to go, and EU Membership will only be a real possibility after WTO legislation is adopted and significant additional progress made after that. Promise broken.
Yushchenko's Ten Steps
During his campaign, Yushchenko outlined "Ten Steps For the People" which was a collection of ten promises his government made to Ukrainian citizens. They are the most clearly expressed promises he made, even coming with explanations here, on his site. He also spoke about them here. The source of each promise is Yushchenko's site. As such, I have devoted this separate section of Words and Deeds exclusively to them. The title of each promise is Yushchenko's own, but I tried to trim down or cut out the less mesurable promises. Other links to information on Yushchenko's Ten Steps: 1, 2, 3, ...
- Create Five Million New Jobs (--)
Yushchenko gave further explanation of this promise here on his website. Hrytsenko also talks about this promise, here. I early gave this a negative rating assuming massive capital construction cuts in the new budget would make the new government contracts/public works programs unfeasable. As Dave Sheridan thoughtfully commented in my discussion of the budget, the government may get better returns by not increasing the public works budget and instead demonstrating fiscal conservatism and waiting for investors to respond with capital.
sub-pledges:
a) develop the domestic market (-)
b) create government contracts/public works program (-)
c) guarantee jobs to students whose college education was paid for by the government (somewhat like recipients of US government scholarships; comprise about 30% of the top achievers in an average school's student body, different at each university) (-)
d) get rid of obstacles to starting a small business (+)
e) decrease credit rates (-)
f) promote advanced technologies (-)
g) attract ten times former levels of foreign investment (-)
As the economy has soured and little progress on reforms has been made since spring, almost all the items on the list above have languished. In the spring the restrictions on small business were reduced, but that hardly makes up for the other failings. Promise broken.
- Ensure Priority Funding of Social Programs (-)
An additional explanation of this pledge is given on Yushchenko's website here. I'm giving this promise a tentative positive after reading about the new budget. It looks like both the promises to pensioners and the disabled. This positive is conditional on the budgeted payments actually coming into effect, of course.
This promise covers:
a) increasing pensions (+)
b) pay government back-wages within a year
c) rebuild town and village healthcare
d) provide some guarantees on the preferred healthcare treatment for veterans
e) improve systems for the disabled (+)
f) pay teachers' salaries on time and increasing them to the level of salaries in the industrial sector
g) return to 10-year 5 point educational system
h) build public housing for low-income citizens with money formerly wasted on government buildings and expensive government vehicles
Despite the keeping of promises in the budget, most noticably for pensioners and the disabled, I've seen little progress on this issue since the economy soured and the government split. Promise negative.
- Increasing the Budget by Decreasing Taxation (-)
sub pledges include:
a) decrease taxes (+)
b) decrease salary tax to 20% by 2010
c) simplify taxation and make it transparent (+)
d) separate business from government, and protect small businesses from extortion
e) get corrupt officials out of tax bodies, raise salaries for the non-corrupt
f) force oligarchs to pay taxes fairly
For more on budget-balancing pledges, read this Radio Liberty article.
On the follow up, I have this clipping from the Ukraine Daily Report on the 2005 Budget:
Premier Tymoshenko explained the delay in the preparation of the new budget bill by the serious problems left by the previous Cabinet of Viktor Yanukovych. She said that the old 2005 budget is too problematic and provides for a state deficit of UAH 32.8bn. "It is impossible to live with such a deficit," Tymoshenko stated. The Minister of Finance, Viktor Pynzenyk, explained that the old Cabinet increased social spending, including pensions, but did not raise wages therefore creating a huge deficit of the State Pension Fund. The Minister of Economy, Serhiy Teryokhin, stated that the real budget deficit according to the old 2005 budget law may reach as much as 10% of the GDP, while the current law ‘On The 2005 State Budget’ provides for a 2.2% or UAH 8.87bn of maximum budget deficit. Teryokhin further claimed that the new edition of the 2005 state budget provides for deficit of no more than 1.54% of GDP. [translated from Finport, 9 Mar]
Taxes were down and collections up a little this year. That's a very good sign. I haven't seen much progress on any of the other items, though, so I'm going to have to give this item a weak negative rating.
- Force the Government to Work for the People and Battle Corruption Decisively (--)
As part of this, Korrespondent quotes Yushchenko as promising to eliminate the Tax Police. On the follow-up for this item, I have the 18,000 appointee positions that the YuGov changed.
sub-pledges include:
a) fire corrupt officials in the executive branch (--)
b) abolish useless government structures, force remaing officials to sign an "Code of Honor"
c) clearly define the sphere of the remaining government officies
d) fire corrupt judges (--)
e) conduct political reforms - adopt changes to the Constitution after free and fair Parlimentary election in 2006 (--)
f) Strengthen local government both legally and financially (--)
What a disappointment this has been. Aside from the minor move of abolishing the bribe-loving traffic police, I've seen little progress against corruption. Against that the wretched deputy immunity from prosecution has been extended down to the regional level. Yushchenko has appointed regional governors, and the regions may even have lost power to the state. The judiciary is a mess, and it took Yushchenko until last October to fire his Kuchma-holdover Prosecutor General, and his new one hasn't distinguished himself either. A very deeply broken promise.
- Create Safe Living Conditions (-)
sub-pledges include:
a) make law-enforcement focus on public safety
b) fire corrupt law-enforcement officials
c) improve defenses against natural disasters
I haven't heard of any major progress on law-enforcement, aside from getting rid of the traffic cops. On the other hand, my sister-in-law and a couple friends of friends were mugged this year. So a negative here.
- Protect Family Values, Respect for Parents, and Children's Rights (+)
I'm giving this promise a tentative positive after reading about the new budget. It looks like both the promises to new mothers and disabled children have been covered. This positive is conditional on the budgeted payments actually coming into effect, of course, as well as dealing with the majority of other sub-pledges.
sub-pledges include:
a) Reverse population decline (-)
b) Increase support for new mothers tenfold (+)
c) guarantee good healthcare for pregnant women.
d) provide assistance to those raising children or caring for the elderly
e) revive state kindergartens and nurseries, ban the sale of preschools (-)
f) provide credit to homebuyers (-)
g) eliminate child homelessness (-)
h) provide free medical care to disabled children (+)
i) establish a family doctor system (-)
I'm going to give this more minor issue a weak negative rating. As with everything else, the benefits for families are on the budget, but the economy is so weak it is questionable whether or not they are affordable.
- Promote Spirituality and Strengthen Moral Values (-)
sub-promises include: (this was a particularly hazy pledge)
a) promote unity and respect of human values
b) support public initiatives
Negative because I've seen nothing of significance.
- Promote the Development of the Countryside (-)
sub-promises include:
a) end land market speculation
b) double agricultural productivity
c) make financial resources available to farmers, and ensure fair prices of ag products
d) raise rural incomes to the state average
e) improve village access to natural gas, electricity, public transport and public buildings like schools and clubs and medical facilities
Again, negative because I've seen no legislation of significance.
- Improve Military Capabilities and Respect for the Military (-)
sub-promises include:
a) reduce duration of conscription military service to twelve months starting with the spring 2005 draft
b) abolish conscription by 2010
c) provide housing for military personnel
Once more: negative, no significant progress.
- Conduct Foreign Policy that Benefits the People of Ukraine (--)
sub-promises include:
a) honest, transparent, consistent, profitable foreign policy (-)
I originally gave Yushchenko a positive for his all out international support-gathering campaign. But transparency takes a hit with the huge increase in the power of RosUkrEnergo in the Russia-Ukraine gas deal. And the deal itself was worked out behind closed doors. The government was making some progress up until then, but not big enough to outweigh this mistake.
As for "profitable" that was covered in the fits-and-starts movement towards the WTO.
b) measure success in foreign investment, export, and security of Ukrainians abroad (-)
Ukraine has not reformed it's economy definitively enough to attract major western capital.
c) mutually beneficial, friendly, and stable relations with Russia (-)
The Russian government has never liked Yushchenko, and they likely never will. But in summer Tymoshenko postured over the oil issue in an irritating and anti-market fashion.
What I wrote after the oil crisis in JULY 2005: "Russian companies are still selling less gasoline than before, and understandably so, because the prices they were charging in December [2004] were artificially low to support Yanukovych's presidential candidacy. (as the heir to the incumbent) Pretending that the current higher prices are the anomoly is a false way to deal with the Ukrainian people, gives the Russian government a legitimate point of contention, and will lead to no good."
And that has indeed happened, albeit over natural gas, not oil. Russians are mad because the country's still providing gas at below-market rates. Ukrainians are mad because the old price was fixed by law before the Russians decided it was unprofitable. The deal introduces a huge question-mark with RosUkrEnergo (which I mentioned earlier). I still think it was probably an acceptable compromise in unfavorable circumstances, and Russia was certainly the instigator of the event (with a ready-made media blitz to go with it), but that doesn't change the fact that things aren't any friendlier or more stable.