In the news besides, the potential gas shut off (or partial shut off) to Ukraine by Gazprom, PoR is unwilling at this time end its blockade of Parliament even with a compromise regarding NATO and referendum offered by the Speaker, President Yushchenko's visit to Moscow tomorrow, Ukraine being behind on Euro 2012, Ukrainian schools closed due to the high number of children who have influenza ... The big one for me is pictures of Rudkovsky sitting behind bars.

Former Minister of Transport in PM Yanukovych's government and member of the Socialist Party, Mykola Rudkovsky has been detained by the Secret Services of Ukraine, leading to his arrest. He is known to scandals such as his jaunt to Paris with Miss Ukraine and charges of misspent state funds. (And from Ukrainiana site regarding his involvement in hosting exiled Turkmen leaders.)

"The court decided to choose arrest as preventive punishment since Rudkovskyi did not cooperate with the investigation, violated the written undertaking not to leave town in his living not at the place of registration." (Ukrainian News)

Since being arrested by SBU Rudkovsky has been plagued by illness even being in need of a wheelchair when brought in before the judge. Whether the illness is real of feigned, this formerly robust politician faces charges of not cooperating with authorities regarding investigation into his alleged misdeeds as Minister of Transport and surprising can actually say at this time, "Bandits go to jail." Let's see if others will join him. (Including current Cabinet ministers?)

Aside: Interview in english with Oleh Dubyna CEO of NaftoHaz. While "Board chairman of Ukrhaz-Energo joint venture Ihor Voronin says NJSC Naftohaz Ukrainy cannot purchase gas from Central Asia on direct contracts, bypassing the mediator RosUkrEnergo." (Ukrainian News)

Socialists held their Congress today and again Moroz was elected leader of the Socialist political party (SPU) as well as first secretary of the political party - the two offices were combined into one.. There was another candidate for the post but the candidate pulled his own nomination out of the race so Moroz was unchallenged. Moroz announced that the SPU spent 42 mil hv (8.05 mil USD) at the last election campaign (Sept. 30.)

     Yep, over 8 million dollars and they lost. Ordinarily this would mean new management, no doubt about it. Will see if they can get it together to woo back the voters or is this the end of the Socialist Party of Ukraine as long as Moroz is in charge? (Personally, another person who imho, should have stepped down was Blokhin esp. after his promise to do so,   and in the face of Ukraine's loss to Lithuania 2-0 today but that this about soccer, not politics.)

Thirty days are ticking down and so what's the deal? who/what/where is the new government?

There is the saying that 'easy come, easy go'.

Based on the time/energy/effort that is coming from all sides, on one hand it is very good news because if the reverse of the saying holds, then the 'democratic coalition' should become bonded like titanium. On the other hand, it shows how, it is not all roses/rainbows/sweetness and light but it is intense, dogged and the blending of all types, shapes and sizes. And when I write 'coming from all sides' I mean it - not just OU-PSD, BYUT but also PoR, CPU, SPU, etc.

They all seem to be Amy Winehouse fans singing, "They tried to make me go to Rehab(Opposition), I said, "No, no, no!."

Not only was a member of the Socialist Party reprimanded while in Constitutional Court (case regarding the elections.) So the court case does not seem to be going their way and so an appeal in court to have the vote recounted. The Socialist rep. in court actually fainted. An ambulance was called and he was checked out. (ukr) (High drama and 'hysterics' indeed!)

And Moroz publicly stated that rumours that the SPU would be uniting with any other political factions are unfounded.

PS Bring back Volhy at least he gave the Socialist party some 'young blood'.  

Minister of Interior Tsushko announced that the police will be arresting people on the day of the elections in his warning that he will not allow the vote to be disrupted by provocations. This comes days before he is caught on tape trying to convince policeman to vote for him at a gathering of the militia. And not to long ago he was ruled guilty of electioneering.

The police by law are not allowed to be anywhere inside where elections are taking place and the signals being given them by their leader are scary indeed. To whom can you turn to when the 'top cop' in the Ukraine is 'up to no good'? Where is the justice?

    The latest from Moroz is "We will not recognize the results of the election, whatever they may be." Moroz does not recognize the legality of the elections. While at a rally in Bila Tzerkva, he promised his supporters that he will go to court regardless of election results. (This was also stated by Vassyl Sylchenko.)

Over the past few weeks, Moroz has made numerous public appearances and statements which merit attention. Like yesterday's comments where he speaks out against competition at the oblast and rayon level between "branches of power" and states that government should be formed by those political forces which have the majority popular support in the region. He is arguing for the inevitability of decentralization. (Could federalism be far behind?)

And ever since the dissolution of Parliament, Moroz has continued to rail against the President. No surprises there.

Of course, it has been said that post Sept. 30, Moroz will not be a political force. But as Moroz has shown by his longetivity on the political scene in Ukraine, he is a careerist. Will this be the final curtain for him? I think not.

the kid nobody wants on his team 

After a few opening forays last month (a couple promises to voters snuck into other speeches as politicians tried to sneak past campaign laws here and there), the pitches are flying. Here's a helpful roundup of political slogans of the month, from ForUm. What do you all say: in this group of pitches, which are the foul balls, and which are the strikes?

And among the former orange parties, the repositioning continues. Current poll ratings indicate that the joint group of Yushchenko's Nasha Ukrayina (NU) and Lutsenko and Kyrylenko's National Self-Defense (NS) in a single bloc (NUNS) has already draw quite close to the ratings of Tymoshenko's BYuT. (Must... control urge to make "Nuns on the Run" jokes, must... control urge...). There is even some discussion of a BYuT and NUNS uniting for another election.

One development that may help NU reunite with BYuT is that it continues to sideline some of the opposing friends in its own ranks. The most recent two have been Yekhanurov and Bezsmirtniy. I've never thought much of Bezsmirtniy as a politician. so seeing him go seems like a good move to me. Yekhanurov, I'll admit I liked back when he became PM. I would have preferred no break with BYuT to having him, but he talked some economic sense and I was amazed at how much Zerkalo Nedeli seemed to like him.

He's always been part of the "rapprochement with Yanukovych before Tymoshenko" wing of NU, though, so in the interest of seeing Ukrainian voters get some options in the election, it's probably best that he's getting shunted back to the minor leagues off in Dnipropetrovsk.

Yushchenko maintaining his Kuchma-era stance, and abandoning it

However, in a way very similar to his past behavior Yushchenko is again trying court oligarchs at the same time as he's uniting with anti-oligarch parties. Here he is taking an active hand in ousting his own PoR-friendly deputies because they're losing voters for him, as well as trying to rescue NU by bringing it together with more confrontational anti-oligarch parties, but at the same time trying to appeal to oligarchs? I really don't get what his angle is, and it can't help his relations with either NS or BYuT to be chumming with their avowed opponents, let alone voters.

More troubling still than his reverting to past form is a contradiction pointed out by Zerkalo Nedeli: Yushchenko is also agitating for reforms to the Constitution that would increase presidential power, move the country towards authoritarianism, and create "a coffin for Ukrainian democracy". The quote isn't mine, and it isn't ZN's, either. It's Yushchenko 2000's quote, when Kuchma proposed exactly the same raft of reforms. Now would be a good time for him to cut the hypocrisy and work with what he's got.

The all center-rightist candidate list

 One group of people that no one is making overtures to now, though, is the Socialists. I've mentioned this fact in the last couple entries, but wanted to at least pause in this one to contemplate this important point. With the Socialists on their way out, by all poll numbers, and the Communists reduced to perhaps 5-6% of the Rada at most, Ukrainians electoral choices seem to include no significant leftist groups.

First take a look at the other parties to see where they're located. BYuT, like it's founder has ever been more populist than leftist; much more likely to dance around the middle where they might win points with voters on both sides than run out and stake an reduced-free-market stance. NS is pretty much a one-note party, with the note being "fight corruption". In any case, Lutsenko wasn't sufficiently devoted to left-leaning policies to give up a chance to join in a block with NU. NU has always had its allies in big business, and even if they're being sidelined now, Yushchenko seems determined to make new ones. That leaves, PoR, which has more big business ties than any other party in the Rada, and thus has even less incentive than they do to take a leftist stand that would damage those ties.

All of which means that Ukrainians can choose from different personalities this September, but not substantially different ideologies. What an amazingly narrow breadth of choice! Their ballot slips are going to look almost like Soviet-era store shelves: only a few things to choose from, and not much to differentiate any them.

This being a speculation about a non-phenomenon (the lack of left) I really don't have any links or events to hang this section on. But I would certainly love opinions and speculation on the potential effects of this imbalance.

Ideas? 

bring on the populist rhetoric

Despite weak attempts by Moroz and the Socialists to forestall it, things are moving forward towards a September 30 voting day. Moroz's force will disappear after the election, so the action seems understandable. However, every other political force is unlikely to change much in its standing and is thus satisfied with holding them. Moroz is reaping what he sowed in summer of 2006 by joining with PoR, so despite his sad position now, he is unlikely to be missed in October.

Another shift that has happened is that it appears Lutsenko and Kyrylenko have gone with the safe bet. Just recently, their People's Self Defense Party signed to join in an election bloc with Our Ukraine. Taras Kuzio, writing in the Eurasia Daily Monitor, breaks down the benefits to Our Ukraine of the alliance. Missing from the discussion is the benefit to PSD. Essentially, what is probably happening is that the party is currently at 3.3% popularity. That leaves it dangerously close to the 3% bar required for a party to get into Parliament on its own. Joining with OU is the safe bet because it will mean that PSD will not have to worry about that bar, because it's numbers will be calculated as part of the overall pool with OU. A bit disappointing not to see them venture out on their own, since PSD looked cleaner than OU, but PSD deputies will largely be free to go their own way after September.

Aside from the disappearance of the Socialists and the reapportionment among the former orange parties, not much is likely to change on September 30. Polling results for President (in an "if presidential elections were held tomorrow interview) and parliament show roughly the same divide as currently.

Which means yet more years for the Communists to continue to fill our lives with mirth.

Talk Talking 

Yushchenko is about helping students, removing parliamentary deputy immunity, and giving money to lots of people: must be election time again. It seems that the primary item on that list to Yanukovych, though is the part about taking away deputy immunity. He accuses Yushchenko of words instead of deeds and thus being a populist (and, not to be outdone, his party also called on the President to sign their law to increase wages).

Furthermore, Yanukovych faults Yushchenko for populism: making promises that won't be backed up by actions. Except that the deputies' immunity from prosecution, and therefore relatively freedom from accountability, is not something Yushchenko could push through Parliament is that PoR's deeds, not its words (along with big businesspeople in every party that's got them, including Our Ukraine) would be to crush such a vote. The reason this particular rhetoric makes him angry, therefore, is that he and his party don't want to even mention the possibility.

The tight runoff in the competition for most watery promises 

Since Yanukovych brought up the term, we might take a look at Ukrainian parties to determine who are the biggest populists. Taras Kuzio has done so in a Kyiv Post article, and argued convincingly that in combining a hazy ideological standpoint and isolationist tendencies while complaining about things that matter to people (but not actually doing anything about them) PoR can claim the title of most populist party in the nation (remember when PoR was championing the Russian language (non-)issue, Crimean separatism, or devolution of power to the regions?).

Yushchenko has also been doing some good work as well as talking the talk. One effort I noticed was his decidedly un-populist batting down of limits on foreign imports. Nice one. 

Yanukovych's recent moves have included invoking the I know nothing defense about where PoR gets its financing. Good move. The defense can never hold up under even the slightest scrutiny, of course, but it moves the discussion on to other matters and the less time anyone looks at PoR financing, the better off he will be. His other recent move has been to call on all parties to sign a new mutual non-aggression pact before the September election. Not quite sure what he's angling at with that. Possibly to try and get Yushchenko to simply stand next to him and agree on something, considering how much that tanked Our Ukraine's ratings back in 2005. Or perhaps trying to steal a beat on Yushchenko and Tymoshenko by saying he opposes election fraud before they do. In any case, Yushchenko's retort was been to order central and regional governments (greatly influenced by PoR) to provide those same fair election conditions.

As for Tymoshenko, whom I myself have called a populist, she's again showing up Yushchenko and Yanukovych with her rhetoric. Specifically, I would recommend this sermon from the pulpit of Zerkalo Nedeli. What's most well-done is that, while supremely optimistic, she makes not one specific populist statment in the whole speech.

Other moves of hers include an attempt to steer voters away from newly minted parties and a call on Yushchenko to stop PoR from privatizing state assets in ways that don't help the nation. In drawing attention to privatization record of the Yanukovych government, though, she is only repeating accusations made by Yushchenko's secretary Viktor Boloha. With quite a bit of luck, there might even be a government in power by October with an inclination to do something about this.

Good News 

I like to end entries on a happy note around here, so economic news comes last. According to the WTO Ukrainian poverty has gone from 32% in 2001, to 14% in 2004, to 8% today. As the Economist mentions in this excellent survey of the current Ukrainian situation (recommended reading!) "one reason the economy is doing well, say some, is that politicians are too busy fighting each other to meddle".

... as Ukrainians become indifferent to crisis

It was an astounding moment. I open up an article from the Economist and saw what amounted to a travelog diary. In the Economist, a magazine so committed to journalistic distance that it doesn't even include their names by their articles, I saw first person pronouns being used. What was the subject that inspired the icon of dispassionate and objective journalism to this chattiness?

In this case, it was a walk down Kreshchatyk, meeting seeming untroubled citizens. A wholely normal, civilized afternoon. Of course there was, theoretically, a crisis going on. 

Things that should have caused concern 

Objectively, Yanukovych and Co. had followed up months of aggressive power accumulation with an old Soviet-style attack on Lutsenko and a huge effort to pull away Our Ukraine defectors. The group was so blatant, it even forced Yushchenko, one of the last people to assert himself, to call for new elections. (see previous entry)

Then things escalated to the point where Yuschenko removed Pyskun, for the second time, the pro-POR Interior Minister Tsushko mustered armed police to stop Pyskun from being removed (greatly exceeding his authority), the President mustered other troops to his cause (also exceeding his authority), who were met by a barricade of POR loyal law enforcement personnel (on the authority of... uh.... well, he was probably exceeding his authority) and you had armed groups of Ukrainians facing off against one another (read about the whole sorry build-up in this EDM article).

The events of the time make the final resolution on May 30 to hold elections in September seem like a huge relief from a nail-biting confrontation.

Care for an ice-cream cone? 

That was four days before the journalist from the Economist went for this walk in Kyiv (I recommend the whole journal, it's a nice, if fluffy, piece. Get it while it's still not in archives!). His opening line:

Arriving in Kiev on a swelteringly hot day last week, I went walking in the city centre. I found myself exchanging pleasantries with three burly black-clad commandos, sporting guns and truncheons, sitting in a four-wheel drive—and eating ice-cream. Like everyone else on Independence Square they were enjoying the cool gusts from the fountains. “It is too nice a day to talk about politics”, said one of them, smiling broadly. “Let's talk about women.”

 The author goes on to describe how the troops loyal to Yushchenko proceeded through unarmed and on foot when confronted by the police mentioned above. He also attributes part of the the lack of violence to the lack of ideological divide and ideological leaders. All in all, it's a very nice alternative to violent coups, I must say.

In a similar vein is a typically long-winded but insightful Zerkalo Nedeli article that begins: 

By all appearances, there is one good thing about all this muddle of political turmoil in Ukraine: it gives the people a wonderful opportunity to see the total impotence of the state machine – wheels and all. Now, after a series of functional denunciations provoked and exchanged by the warring camps, even those who have never cared about politics before can see that the country exists but the state almost does not.

Learning to ignore the political tourists

Part of what has inured Ukrainians to politics may have been the months of PoR sponsored political tourists, as Taras Kuzio calls the anti-presidential protesters-for-hire in this worthwhile EDM article. As the citizens of Kyiv watched the supporters show up for their required hours, then go off sightseeing, and with no charismatic figure to rally behind, they've simply decided that political furor is much like inclement weather. Hopefully you have an umbrella, but in any case, you go to work.

It makes Putin's comment on the situation seem almost funny: "We had a hope for the men in Ukraine but they have also brought themselves into discredit, things are going towards total tyranny." It's like that little old grandma you know complaining about how all kids these days seem to be listening to satanic death metal rock lyrics. You can't really blame him for not being up on events in Ukraine, though; his government had only just finished suppressing protesters and wasting everyone's time at the Russian-EU summit in Samara.

The calmness of Ukrainian citizenry also puts a weird spin on an Economist Intelligence Unit report placing Ukraine far down the list of peaceful countries (80 of 120), though ahead of both the US (96) and Russia (118). Maybe the EIU should have had two scores for Ukraine, one for Political Ukraine and one for Non-Political Ukraine (see next entry)?

Perhaps take a little time this summer to pay attention to politics

Some folks in the bloggy world have worried that the lack of attention Ukrainians are paying to politics has lapsed into a dangerous indifference. After all, citizens who are not paying attention are not keeping their politicians in check. But assuming that the vote does take place in September, and is not derailed by some sort of last minute feint (such as might come from the Communists and Socialists, who are highly likely to be voted out of office in this election), Ukrainians will get to chose whom to vote for again. They're not likely to change their opinions much from last time, but at least they're the ones who get to decide.

Here's hoping that this neglect is benign. 

I've got to be honest here, I haven't got all that much exciting or thrilling news today; the country is mostly just muddling along. But thankfully, the Communists have a solution for real democratic change: abolish the presidency. In Symonenko's words: "The Communist faction will propose abolishing the post of president, which does not correspond to the nation's centuries-long democratic traditions and has hampered state development."

I'll pause for a moment while that sinks in.

... 

Meanwhile, Moroz, perhaps in an effort to distract attention from his fellow lefties, is trying to stop the presses by accusing Tymoshenko of formulating what appears to be the least diabolical plot ever. She's going to wait around, and then try to use constitutionally sanctioned methods to agitate for a shift of power, then sweet talk Yushchenko into retiring and then... take over the country by winning an election.

Bwahaha.

At least it might stop the presses long enough for the Lead Editor's to formulate a proper retort.

NATO Stalling

Yanukovych wants to back off talks about Ukraine joining NATO. Ostensibly this is in order to convince voters that NATO is a good choice, but one might wonder how good a persuader Yanukovych is going to be when his Party of Regions deputies made staying out of NATO one of their major campaign platforms and joined with Vitrenko in protests against it.

I'm not terribly broken up by the news. On the bright side, Yanukovych managed to fulfill at one campaign pledge while keeping talks diplomatic and civil. That's at least a relief - having him blatantly snub and insult the West was my personal worst-case scenario, something that seemed possible after PoR support for the anti-NATO protests.

Now that he's officially put talks on ice, we should move on to other topics rather than waste time fretting, for three reasons:

1.  No politician in Ukraine, in NSNU, PoR, BYT or any other party has ever had the political will to really try to convince the majority of Ukrainians that it would be worthwhile to join. Ignore Yushchenko's usual whining; he didn't make any great effort to talk with citizens about the alliance, either, only foreign governments. All Yanukovych's statement did was make Ukraine's muddling explicit.
2. Don't get me wrong, joining NATO would be good for Ukraine. It would help the country improve the professionalism of the military and phase out the draft. It would give Ukraine an "in" in talks with Western European countries and the US. But since Yanukovych hasn't scuttled cooperation entirely, the country shouldn't be set back forever. And right now, corruption and judicial ineffectiveness are simply going to mess up Ukrainians' lives more. Attention spent bemoaning NATO would be better utilized protesting corruption.
3. Ukraine is so close to getting into the WTO and that process is stalled, too. In fact, everyone seems to have gone quiet about WTO entry... Too quiet. This would be a big boost for good economic policy and it hasn't officially been shelved, so if we've only got so much attention to spare, we should spare it for WTO issues. (Oh... wait a second, I found an item on Yanukovych at least talking about WTO. Movement is better, but keeping it on the agenda is good.)
   

And so now I'll take my own advice and move on. 

More Proof That the Judicial Branch is Broken

Yushchenko may be a weak President, but he is the leader of the country. So when the Prosecutor General's Office has known he was poisoned for two years and has produced exactly zero evidence to incriminate anyone, you know the PGO is incapable of doing anything. 

I can just see their search tactics now: "Well, where could that bad guy be hiding? Maybe he's... under my desk! Nope... Maybe he's... in the closet! Not there either..."

Gas Is Rising 

Yanukoyvch and the PoR have pretty much failed to win any concessions from Russia (quietly assenting to higher gas prices after only a modicrum of resistance). That Yushchenko was the one getting praised by Putin for his reasonableness and his acceptance of the higher prices also indicate that Yanukovych and the Party of Regions are trying to back away from the issue.

It will be interesting to see if PoR can have their man as PM and still avoid criticism from voters when the cold season hits. Certainly they haven't been selling off oil and gas assets any faster than Yushchenko's NSNU was doing up through the summer.

It seems like an inevitable sell-off of Ukrainian assets with the Ukrainian government over the barrel. The only glimmer of optimism I can draw out of this situation is that no country (with the exception of Norway) has ever really reaped a benefit from the oil business on behalf of the population as a whole. If Ukraine gets pushed out, perhaps it will mean one fewer industry where oligarchs can skim off easy money without having to earn anything.

Yeah, I had to pull out all the stops on the optimism to come up with that one. I did warn you it wasn't a particularly happy entry.

I remember this dance from 1994

On Aug 21, Ukrainian authorities found the bullet-ridden body of the top anti-organized crime official in Donetsk, Roman Yerokhin, just a week before erecting a new monument to Vyacheslav Chornovil, nationalist politician (who died sandwiched between long-haul trucks a few months before the presidential election in which he was to run). So while Yushchenko tries to convince Ukrainians he's going to launch a new inquiry into Chornovil's murder, another skeleton walks to the end of the line. (Foreign Notes has been all over this case, describing: Lutsenko's typically vague statement that "we know he's a Donetsk businessman", his claim that the murders have been detained, the small likelihood those that orderd the hit will be prosecuted by the do-nothing PG Medvedko, and more of the usual you-know-who ridiculousness Ukrainian news agencies are always panning off as news rather than gossip (this time that the person who ordered the hit was a BYUT deputy whose name begins with "Sh"). As soon as I get my hands on a picture of the guy, I'll get him up on Skeletons.

In industrial news: as expected, the Yanukovych Cabinet is also putting a stop to any further privatization of Ukrainian state assets like the hugely successful Krivoryzhstal (re-)privatization. Meanwhile the actual campaign promises Yanukovych and his party made have all gotten sidelined, as I pointed out a few weeks ago, and Tymoshenko mocked him for yesterday.

The only solid blow against corruption has landed, though. It fell on Pavlo Lazarenko, former PM, who was convicted of money laundering and sentenced to nine years in prison. Oh... wait, Lazarenko was convicted in the US. Pretty sad for Ukraine that the only bandit to go to prison was living abroad. On the other hand, I'm proud of my country for nailing the bastard. My congratulation to the US judicial branch and San Francisco circuit court in specific.

"Grand Coalition" Not Yet Finalized

So, pretty much a full return to the Kuchma era. But don't worry, says Yushchenko, if the ministers in the Cabinet get out of line I'll make sure they resign. What power he's going to use to do this is unclear, but not nearly as unclear as how he plans to fulfil his promise that all state money be used "for the benefit of the poor, social programs, the army, in other words – for the welfare of Ukraine". Let me get this straight: he can't keep his own party in line, he couldn't stop his opponent from getting into power, but now we're supposed to believe he's got the power to coerce the Party of Regions into becoming a philanthropic government?

Yushchenko's party, meanwhile, seems to be attempting to make the coalition with PoR-Socialists-Communists as unproductive as the Orange coalition. In fact, the coalition is apparently still under discussion. Maybe this is supposed to be a sneaky way to cut down on corruption: drag out discussions so long that no one can get anything done (For a prediction of what the final outcome will look like, I recommend the Kyiv Post's article on Kyiv politics as a possible foreshadowing).

Natural Gas Prices Not Finalized, Either

Regional governments will get a say in the planning of the 2007 budget, promised Yanukovych. Ukraine won't steal any gas this winter, he also promised, but he wouldn't speculate on what price the country is going to be paying (though hinting it might rise "a little" due to world price trends). First Vice PM Azarov was less optimistic, saying the price won't be less than $135/1000cu m.

Regions of Ukraine deputies suddenly sound like a bunch of Kuchma acolytes

What a difference power makes! Gone is the Party of Regions (PoR) that stumped it for all the hot-button issues in the East. Gone is the party that represented "half of a divided country" as so many AP articles told me. In its place is a whole horde of little(-er) Kuchmas willing to drop any demand so long as it doesn't threaten their power or avenues for graft.

In the process, they're making all those PoR voters look like suckers. As expected.

First the bad news, and there's quite a bit of it: journalists are feeling the pinch again as "incidents" against them increase, Yanukovych has recently signed through a Cabinet decree allowing civil servants to be fired with less warning, Akhmetov is threatening to try to get Krivoryzhstal back, and (as I describe below) WTO accession is looking shakier and gas issues hazier. (thanks to Foreign Notes and frequent commenter IIU for most of these points)

WTO Accession - Like a Software Release Date

I've got to admit: I am in the dark about what's going on with Ukraine's WTO bid. According to UNIAN, on 8 Aug, Yanukovych suggested Ukraine might not join until 2007, while Tarasyuk was still adamant that accession will happen this year. The next day, Kinakh managed to agree with both of them; how's that for a political trick! (Ok, factually he only agreed with both that it should happen "soon", but still...) "Soon," says Yushchenko's Economic secretary, too.

And then a couple days ago, a new word from Yanukovych, more optimistic than the last. Now he is saying that Ukraine's been trying so long, it really should make it into the WTO this year, though "It would be wrong if we conceded on positions which would damage our market and our manufacturers."

The vagueness makes me suspicious that the deal won't go through until 2007.

Natural Gas For Influence
gas price extended through the end of the year. This despite Turkmenistan's stated aim of increasing its own price to Russia to $100/1000cu m. Should that take place, The Russian government will be selling gas to Ukraine at rates below the price it pays to suppliers. This before Yanukovych has even made it to Russia to negotiate. (although I'm also reading that this is not yet an agreement, but just a pronouncement from Yanukovych without official Russian confirmation yet, or something "being agreed upon")One other thing Yanukovych has decided: RosUkrEnergo is probably not so bad after all.failed to secure a deal on gas. Large price hikes and shortages are now imminent. I'm inclined to believe it, considering the thrust of the other two puzzling articles I placed after EDM. Looks like I'm going to have to downgrade my estimations of EDM, huh. In their defense, for quite some time they've been very reliable. I sincerely hope this doesn't indicate a downward trend.

The new news, of course, is great. If Yanukovych is having difficulties in negotiations and even he is suggesting price hikes to $150/ 1000cu m minimum, that means Russia is demanding real-world rates. A real, economically-based, agreement would not presuppose any backroom sell-out. It would mean clear negotiation based on national (and business) self-interest.

I can quote the same article referenced below, but now from the most optimistic option, rather than second-best:

Outcome 1: The Russian government takes the principled position that Russia should be selling gas to Ukraine openly at market rates - good policy which moves Ukrainian-Russian relations in a positive direction, good for forcing Ukrainian development along a sustainable route, good for reinforcing Ukrainian independence, and damaging to Yanukovych's credibility (as a bonus).

The following conclusions are therefore, happily, no longer applicable. Very comforting.

A couple postings ago I described what [a maintained $95 price] would mean: the Russian government is not interested in transparent economic relations with its neighbors. When it looked like the former orange blocs would continue in power, Putin repeatedly threatened to hike the price and now: suddenly the Russian government has decided it didn't really want to make an (economic) profit after all.

The price that will be paid will instead be determined in backroom deals. Russia will sell at ostensibly cut-rate prices expecting non-economic returns that are never announced to Ukrainian citizens (or any others, for that matter, including Russians). With all the secrecy, it doesn't require a terribly suspicious mind to wonder if unscrupulous Ukrainian politicians (like Boyko, back to his oily, gassy business as Minister now) might be selling out their nations at a discount, in exchange for kickbacks.]

A Couple Happy Side-Effects of the PoR Resurgence

There aren't many, granted, but there are some. Most of them got helpfully summed up by Vitrenko in her whine about how Yanukovych betrayed PoR voters. Essentially, while RoU will be concentrating its efforts on corruption and corrosion of the rule of law, it won't be focusing on any of the divisive issues it campaigned about.

Chief among its shifts is its quick backpedaling on the language issue. Like I said from the start: the language issue was just vote-gathering rhetoric with no real RoU deputy support. Tossing it to Yushchenko like a bone was the easiest decision they made. Of course the best option is if the language issue remains on the table enough to reach some sort of compromise, but I'd take neglect over a quickie conversion to dual state languages.

the port's quiet, the protests are over, and NATO is backAnother is that NATO military exercises got ok'd by the Rada and are happening again in Crimea. This is great. Regardless of whether or not Ukraine eventually joins (which I believe has always required a referendum, though perhaps this might have been a RoU win), it's a better diplomatic stance to at least look amenable. Vitrenko can't be to happy to see RoU voicing support for Crimean Tatars, either. (pic: VOA)

And finally, the Constitutional Court is back in action. 

Lutsenko Is Still Better Than Any Other Cabinet Member

As I said in my last entry, I was disappointed to see Lutsenko go back on his word by continuing to serve as Internal Affairs Minister under Yanukovych. It would have been nice to have seen a Ukrainian politician keeping his word for a change. (here's his excuse - short version, and his excuse - long version; for a fun comparison, here's Moroz's excuse for cutting a deal with Yanukovych. A question for you, Mr. Frosty: If you're so opposed to Yanukovych's policies, why didn't you just refuse to support any candidate?)

But I can't say I'm devastated Lutsenko will still be around. After all, he was a decent Minister; certainly I'm a lot happier to see him still there than to see Zvarych back in the Cabinet. It also looks like he may just be able to use his powers as a check against other Cabinet members.

my goodness

Ukraine has a Parliament again. It's lead by Yanukovych, and it includes the Communists (over protests from NSNU). Some NSNU deputies and almost all BYT deputies either withheld their votes or voted against the nomination of the cabinet,  but the nomination nonetheless passed easily. Those NSNU deputies who opposed it have expressed desires to join in general political opposition, but, of course, the strength of their convictions have not yet been tested. [pic: Voice of America]

Yanukovych gets a new CabinetThe US has sent its diplomatic congratulations, and recently the US Ambassador attended talks with PM Yanukovych. US embassy personnel and the US government are likely not thrilled by the new government, probably closer to the opinions in the article "Don't Give Up On Ukraine", written by former US Ambassador to Ukraine Carlos Pascal. But this is a good time for diplomacy and businesslike international relations. I'm glad the US is making good-faith gestures. Of course Putin also sent his congrats. I found Channel 5's short comment on the subject amusing.

Of course BYT is in opposition, but in a surprising turnaround, Lutsenko has gone for pragmatism and power over his earlier promises of principled opposition. I'm not so sure his recent hospitalization for hypertension got diagnosed right. Have they tested for pangs of conscience?

Initial Illiberal Economic Legislation

According to a statement from [First Vice PM] Azarov, some of the first legislation the new Cabinet will look at is economic (more from the AP).  It involves restarting some tax-privileged zones (bad idea; they are unfair and an invitation to corruption) and also deciding on compensation to be provided to investors who've suffered over the last year and a half (As if the most disadvantaged group in Ukraine has been the small minority of wealthy stockholders).

Funny enough, the majority of the advantages from these illiberal economic moves will accrue to the Donbas industrial area, or, more specifically, to Donbas area industrialists. Yushchenko has called it a mistake, but that's the most he can do about it.

Having this be the Yanu Cabinet's opening move is pretty disheartening. Four more years like this would be horrible for the economy. More to come soon, especially regarding oil and gas.

There are some benefits simply from having a government, though. Along with nominating Yanukovych, Yushchenko signed off on a document stating that the Dec 2004 Constitutional amendments that stripped him of some of his powers will not be brought to the as-yet-unformed Constitutional Court.  Since most lawmakers didn't want to see Yushchenko get a chance to regain those powers, they'd avoided nominating any CC candidates as a form of filibuster. This new piece of legislation will most likely expedite the process considerably.

Hunker Management

My feelings on the issue largely reflect those in Zerkalo Nedeli (pardon the pun; you can hold the one in the title against me, though).

It's going to be an unpleasant next few years. It's likely that "the country that has lately forgotten the meaning of the phase 'tax authorities as a tool of administrative pressure' will have a chance to recollect it; on the other hand, the budget has a chance to take in more revenues." And this was the direct result of the Orange government's "failure to follow the principles it proclaimed and pursue the priorities it set". Nothing for it but to hold on tight.

a more substantive entry from me on Tuesday 

Hey folks! I'm afraid I'm not going to get out this week's entry today, as I'm headed off to a writing conference soon. I'll try to add some more serious content Tuesday when I get back.

The big news is that Yushchenko signed onto a "National Unity Statement" with the Party of Regions and the rest of the blocs in parliament (except Tymoshenko's), and also appointed Yanukovych.

Looks like the best that could really be made from a compromise, and some items I actually very much approve of: the statement softened the Ukrainian language bits of the constitution without making Russian a second national language, and stated plainly that a referendum will be needed before NATO entry. I'm not exactly thrilled about the Single Economic Space (or Common Economic Space, or whatever) but all they really committed to was to keep working with that. Which is fine, so long as they don't get anything done.

The best that could have been hoped for from the agreement, on a quick read from me.

More when I get back.

[update: The Eurasia Daily Monitor now has a high quality and detailed description of the compromise] 

no wonder western reporters don't cover Ukraine much anymore

Yushchenko is stalling for all the time he can get (until Aug 2) to decide whether to dismiss Parliament or accept Yanukovych as Prime Minister. And you can just watch the ultimatums fly: BYT - dismiss parliament or be a traitor, Party of Regions - accept Yanukovych as PM or face impeachment.

As for carrots: Yanukovych says he'd welcome a little chat with NSNU to see if they can't offer some ministerial posts.  NSNU's complaints (according to Ukrainian National Radio, against "politicial blackmail and licentiousness) seem a bit hollow when you know that at the same time they're negotiating with PoR over how many carrots they might get. In any case, the term "political blackmail" has always made me chuckle. In the rest of the world, this is when somebody gets a couple pictures of your candidate doing things voters might object to. In Ukraine, it apparently means "pressing your advantage in Parliament". The licentiousness part sounds much more intriguing, if also a little disturbing. Has Moroz been looking at Poroshenko with bedroom eyes or something?

Um... that's about it. Aside from lots of speculation. You've gotten four of my cents already on this issue, I'll spare y'all from an additional two.

[update: Yushchenko's added his own ultimatum of sorts: his demands from the "anti-crisis" coalition in exchange for the participation of his party. They're pretty extensive, a lot more so than RoU looks ready to accept considering their strong position. Hopefully Yushchenko and NSNU are ready for some tough negotiating and humble compromise.] 

A Few Things To Look At While We're Waiting

How about something to take the mind off? Boing Boing recently posted links to pictures of the Balaklava submarine base, which I mentioned in my Crimea article, but did not have pictures of, myself. Very cool. I especially like the fifth or sixth picture from the bottom, with the stairs going down into the water and the caption reading: "Stairs from Half-Life".

Making Me Feel Guilty about BlogtimeSome other fun media:

An Enormous Flickr Gallery of Soviet posters (hat tip to my buddy, Terry)

Old Russian-language cartoon bits (just snippets, I'm afraid)

Huge selection of Russian-language cartoons (ten-gallon hat tip to R. Smith for this link to a  great selection of toons)

I repeat: there's not really a good choice, just a better one

The Party of Regions-Socialist-Communist "anti-crisis" coalition has officially been formed and acknowledged, even by BYT, and has formally nominated Yanukovych for Prime Minister. This official formation has addressed some the concerns Yushchenko voiced last week. That other procedural matters remain allows BYT and NSNU deputies to shout, but the goal of that shouting is probably no greater than stalling for time. I don't think BYT and NSNU are truly trying to win back the Socialists, (if they were you'd expect they'd spend more time on negotiation and less on decrying traitorousness). The PoR-SPU-CPU crew is thus presumably going to plod on through any necessary process. In theory, though, since everything's taken so long, Yushchenko may be able to exercise his right to disband parliament and call new elections. (again, the Zerkalo Nedeli article lays out the possibilities)

What will Yu do?So will Yushchenko do it? I don't think so. Probably his most prominent weakness has been his hesitancy to take stands, and thus I would not expect him to make such a drastic move. Yanu is even saying NSNU is about to join with the coalition, though this is probably just rhetoric. Bezsmertniy calls the possibility unlikely, and Yushchenko himself has said he is against a broad coalition. Kinakh seems to be trying to steal a beat on Yushchenko, announcing NSNU's move into the opposition even before we're sure Yushchenko is going to allow the new Cabinet to get through. [picture: Yushchenko's site]

On the other side: Tymoshenko still wants Yushchenko to dissolve the parliament, and has asked NSNU deputies to resign alongside her own and force new elections. Except these calls are coming from a distance now, because her bloc walked out of parliament. "Like that's going to stop us", answered the PoR deputies, adding that if Yanukovych is not appointed they'll "respond adequately" (intimating that they may attempt to legislate in spite of Yushchenko's actions). BYT and Pora protesters outside the Rada didn't manage to stop deputies, either.

Honestly, I don't know if I believe Tymoshenko's actually hot for new elections: according to current polls, the majority of Ukrainians would oppose them, and by other polling numbers any gains her party would make over NSNU would be more than offset by what orange parties would lose to Yanu. She may calculate she could beat Yanukovych in a new campaign with a charm offensive, but I would personally expect Ukrainians to give such a campaign only a lukewarm response.

Could Ukraine replay Yeltsin's anti-parliament offensive? Naw.

Frequent commenter WRY has repeatedly suggested in recent comments that Yushchenko might make no decision, hoping to extend the term of Yekhanurov's interim Cabinet. Should he do so, the reasoning goes, RoU will follow up on its threat to meet anyway. Then, at the end of this apocalyptic vision, Yushchenko will use the Yeltsin tactic of calling in the army to storm Parliament.

After pausing for a shudder, I thought about this possibility. Yes, the potential is there, but really, I think this is blogosphere paranoia getting the better of us. This is a man who made a career of reforming without ever getting in conflicts with top politicians. Non-confrontational is probably among the first adjectives one would use to describe the man.

This character trait has been part of the problem: if he'd been a decisive leader, the orange government might have actually followed through on prosecuting Kuchma and many of the people now topping the PoR rosters. The character trait also explains why he agreed to constitutional reform in 2004 that reduced his powers in 2006, rather than listening to Tymoshenko and others telling him he need not negotiate.

I just don't think this is a president who would take things to that extreme. Even if he tried to stall for time for Yekhanurov, I would be very surprised to see him dismiss or storm Parliament.

A Divided Parliament Weakens Both Sides

As I said in my last posting, I certainly hope Yushchenko concedes. For the most part, this is because there is no better option: new elections will mean more months of non-government, followed by an even stronger Yanukovych presence. Winning back the Socialists is probably unrealistic. Other options are mostly non-democratic.

While a PoR-SPU-CPU government will certainly be corrupt and pro-oligarch, there are at least some positive changes which don’t impinge on oligarch power, and thus they may support. Even better, one thing I forgot to mention last week was that an orange coalition would have been greatly weakened by its small majority, and disunity would have sapped much of its potential power. But the same works in reverse for PoR-SPU-CPU: weakness and disunity will inhibit major regressive moves. This suggests to me that while the country won’t likely progress, it also won’t regress greatly.

And hey, I must be dreaming because it already looks like RoU just behaved like a responsible political party. According to Ukrainska Pravda, PoR just expelled Kalashnikov for his antics (beating up a journalist, lying about it) last week. Somebody tell me what I've gotten wrong, because that looks like principled self-policing to me. In response to complaints from the media, even! Quite an improvement over PoR 2004.

Meanwhile, NSNU is still trying to eliminate the remaining difference between it and an “anti-crisis” government. Specifically, Plachkov is trying to weasel-word his way around admitting that some influence over Ukrainian pipes is being given to Russia.

Just to cheer me up, my Google Alerts threw in this breaking announcement with my political news. Things may be messy and disappointing in congress, and some western investors will probably start looking elsewhere, but at least the goth metal bands are still bullish on Ukraine.

Prime Minister Yanukovych is a better option than new elections

Yushchenko is currently refusing to acknowledge the new coalition and has threatened to dissolve the Parliament. BYT and NU deputies are using the same kinds of disruptive tactics RoU was using until last Friday. Protesters are in the streets, and some, like BYT are calling for new election.

Are these the right moves?

No. First because NU and the SPU have already destroyed the Orange coalition: it's gone. Attempts to try and bring it back will not succeed, and so there is no use in carrying on. The Party of Regions was able to use it's noise as a filibuster until it could reach a deal with the Socialists. NU and BYT don't even seem to be trying to win them back, so of what use is the agitation?

Take yet one more step back: the thing that was supposed to unite the economic liberals and conservatives in the orange coalition was supposed to be fighting corruption. It's pretty clear that it didn't and would not have in the future. What other cause should bring Ukrainians out in support of them?

Maxed Out On Political Promises

Even assuming there were a chance of bringing back the Orange coalition, neither new elections nor protests will help.

It's possible, in watching the distasteful display in Parliament these days, to forget about the even less tasteful parties that were swept out in the last election: Vitrenko's band, the Ne Takers (the only party with a less competent campaign than NU), and all the contenders on technicalities (two dozen of them!). It would have been nice if Pora had made the cut, but not nice enough to go through the whole mess again. Remember what it cost to eliminate the deadwood deputies: four months of political posturing, allegations, and smear. All this while deputies were too chicken to make any major decisions and problems became crises. Ukrainians should not be forced to endure another four months of this for the privilege of possibly seeing deadwood bob up in Parliament again.

Beyond this, the last election was free and fair: a procedural triumph at the very least. Will the next one be as fair when held under extraordinary circumstances and probably in a rush?

Now about the protests. For starters, read Foreign Notes:

There are tents cities going up from PORA and others but PR has them too. If there’s a call for protests now, what will it be for? Corruption? After the allegations that accompanied the dismissal of Poroshenko and Tymoshenko? People think that Our Ukraine is as corrupt as RoU... So what we would be left with is a call for protests over what amounts to political differences. "Come out and protest their forming a different coalition!" To paraphrase a quote from a movie, that’s a helluva a concept to have men die for. It just ain’t gonna work.

The Orange Revolution had a real, tangible goal. It was against documented illegal activity. And it was a grassroots effort, much more against political corruption than it was for Yushchenko, as I've always said.

Current protests are just gatherings of angry people lead by politicians. The result? Viktor Taran of BYT scaring off RoU deputies by firing rubber bullets in the air. And Oleh Kalashnikov of PoR one-upped him by assaulting a journalist, destroying the tape in his camera, lying and saying it never happened, then saying he was "provoked".

The OR camps were up two months without violent incident: these new ones obviously don't have the same heart.

The Deal

The PoR-CPU-SPU coalition is likely to be corrupt, backsliding, and anti-democratic. Here's what else it might be:

If the NU people do their messy deals with RoU, they may be able to leverage out the Communists in the process. That would be a big step towards having a government with at least a little common sense. Distasteful compromise like this might even bring enough sense to the government to deal with the host of inefficiencies in the economy (as described in this IMF paper).

NU, BYT and supporters of the former orange parties might as well let Yanukovych try to fulfill his promise to sort out the gas crisis. No way to lose, just consider the possible outcomes:

1. The Russian government takes the principled position that Russia should be selling gas to Ukraine openly at market rates - good policy which moves Ukrainian-Russian relations in a positive direction, good for forcing Ukrainian development along a sustainable route, good for reinforcing Ukrainian independence, and damaging to Yanukovych's credibility.
   
2. The Russian government inks an old Belarus-style cut-rate deal, Ukrainians pay less for gas, and we at least have more confirmation about how things really work in the neighbor to the north.
   
3. Actually, I'll amend that. It could be bad if Yanukovych sells off Ukrainian gas infrastructure in a fire sale, but one would expect that to tank his political career. This tends to dissuade rational politicians, unlike Yushchenko's party which is trying to give over control of the gas pipes, excuse me, "temporary joint control" of the pipes, to Gazprom. It's almost pathologically self destructive: Yushchenko is expending every effort to keep Yanukovych out of office just long enough for his people to forfeit control over a tremendous amount of Ukrainian infrastructure. The RoU-Reds can't do worse.
   

Letting the coalition stand also gives Ukraine a chance of getting into the WTO ahead of Russia (which may be getting closer, see this EDM article). If the only sound in the Rada is coming from noiseblowers, no progress will be possible. This is a time-sensitive issue: if Russia gains membership, and thus veto power, Ukraine's task will become exponentially more difficult.

Finally, there is at least a chance Ukraine can get a damn Constitutional Court. It's been over a year without any legal way to determine constitutionality. This has already complicated dozens of messes.

Lutsenko doesn't want to be a part of the Anti-Crisis CabinetFor these reasons, the neglect that will result from four months of non-government and the potential problems resulting from new elections are even worse than a PoR-CPU-SPU Cabinet. There is going to be corruption, the oligarchs will keep their power, and little progress is likely over the next five years. But the majorities in NU and the Socialists, by courting PoR, have already demonstrated that they didn't have the will to do otherwise.

What remains for Ukrainians interested in the democratic and economic development of their nation is only to try and support the deputies that behave least reprehensibly.

Lutsenko and Tymoshenko are looking good this week. [image - Axis]

big oligarchs are back in style

[side note: First a word of apology from me: I've been visiting family on the East Coast and couldn't get online (useless T-mobile) long enough for an entry last week. And, of course, our family trip happened at the moment of complete collapse of four months of wrangling to be absent. Hopefully you were reading Foreign Notes. Now, where to begin?]

Who knew they were so friendly?The orange coalition has collapsed and the Socialists have joined the Party of Regions and the Communists [also from RFE-RL]. Moroz and his inner core stampeded over any principles they might have had to cut a deal with PoR. After a few days of podium-blocking, the PoR freed up the Rada last week. By that time, a back-room deal must have been cut, because they voted Moroz the Speakership (flanked by a Communist Vice Speaker, God help us all). Yanukovych isn't officially PM yet, but Moroz joined with the rest of the "anti-crisis coalition" to nominate him. [image: Ukrainksa Pravda]

Why did they do this? Well, they said they'd never join in a coalition with Poroshenko as PM. Except, amazingly, he dropped his candidature in response to this ultimatum. So... money and power then.

At this point I'd just like to take you back into the misty past of three weeks ago, when the Socialists made this sarcastic statement:

"The SPU faction addresses Parliament factions able to form an [orange] coalition to stop seeking  profitable offices, to immediately sign a coalition agreement, to form head Parliament bodies and the government, to solve the main economic and social problems, as well as to make efforts to break the long-term deadlock in the country."

"As to the Party of Regions and Our Ukraine, for an example, it is high time to stop dissembling and finish what they began to do," stressed SPU.

Could they have committed a more blatant act of hypocricy than joining RoU themselves? No. Well, way to go, Socialists: against all odds you managed to usurp Our Ukraine as the most disgraceful member of the now-mooted orange coalition.

Testing The Buyability of Deputies

To the infinite regret of the nation, it doesn't look like we're going to get a chance to see how many PoR deputies would defect rather than stay in opposition. Instead, we will watch more fair-weather friends of orange defect (Moroz: "I think I felt a drop, didn't you feel a drop?"), followed by the intemperate-weather friends. Eventually it will be down to friends through the black tempest - years of uninterrupted opposition. And I'm going to bet it's going to be a small opposition: Moroz is already trying to entice over NUsters.

In the meantime, though, there's a circus going on in the big ring! [From Ukrainska Pravda and translated by the Ukraine List]:

It turned out that representatives of the Party of Regions took their places in the hall early in the morning [Tuesday, 7/11], because they had received information that at 8 AM the Tymoshenko Bloc and Our Ukraine would block the podium.

The "Regionals" took under their control the "Rada" system and the press gallery. They stood in friendly rows, and also organized a corridor to allow Oleksandr Moroz to reach the Speaker's place.

Our Ukraine and the Tymoshenko Bloc observed this calmly, possibly because prior to that they "sabotaged" (stashchyly) the keyboard of the computer that was used to register deputies' cards in the session hall.

Even so after a few minutes a skirmish erupted between Tymoshenko Bloc and Regional deputies beside the "Rada" system. Oleksandr Turchynov was at the epicentre.

The tussle fizzled out, and deputies moved on to a verbal slugfest. Regionals were shouting "Glory to Moroz" and "Out with Yulia (Iuliu het')." In response, Our Ukraine and the Tymoshen