Tymoshenko and Yushchenko's Loudest Confrontation Yet: Privatization

It used to be that Yushchenko would send uncountable directives over to Tymoshenko and she would blithely ignore most of them and work towards her own purposes while saying she "admires" the president. He would veto what she did, issue a new directive, and the process would start again.

Recently, things have degenerated.

The major sticking point is Tymoshenko's extensive privatization plan, the proceeds from which she intends to use mostly for government remunerations (or handouts) to holders of Soviet bank accounts made worthless in the aftermath of the fall of the Soviet Union. Yushchenko considers this an irresponsible use of the money, and accuses her of privatizing into the hands of her allies--the claim made by pretty much every party against a privatization by one of its opponents.

So, for example, since State Property Fund Chairwoman Valentyna Semenyuk has been one of the main agents blocking Tymoshenko's privatizations, Tymoshenko kicked her out and installed her own chairman, Andriy Portnov. Yushchenko reinstated Semenyuk, cancelled the privatizations, and issued a "yellow card" warning to Tymoshenko's government. The Constitutional Court overturned his decision, and Tymoshenko told Portnov to ignore it. Along a parallel track, the privatization of, for example the Odesa Pre-Port Plant has been ordered, suspended, ordered again, and again suspended. The Eurasia Daily Monitor has a summary of all the tit-for-tat.

In retaliation, it seems, BYT lined up with the Party of Regions and Tymoshenko said she supports a vote to decrease the President's power in favor of the Parliament (and she's been taking on a number of advisors from the defunct and unmourned SDPU(o) of Viktor Medvedchuk, though this may not be a retaliatory gesture as much as a tactical one). However, when Yushchenko saw that he lacked the support of the Constitutional Court and the Parliament, he backed down. His statement is a classic one of a politician accidentally saying the truth:

Let us not put to question which organization [of power] we need, but focus on the task of achieving, through dialogue, through the work of public commission, through public referendum, a system of counterweights which would ensure serene future for us and our children.

Exactly. Now why have you been wasting your time on this issue practically since you got into office?

Not that Tymoshenko or Yanukovych are any less to blame. The last link goes to an article in Dzerkalo Tizhnya: it's wordy, but overall a great article. The line that pretty much sums everything up:

Each of the three top Ukrainian political players more or less realize the need of the reforms, but all explain their slackness by the following logic: “Now preparations for the decisive battle are going on. What is of critical importance now is to garner as much resources and voter support as possible. It is imperative that sufficient financial, media and electoral reserves be built up. I will begin attending to the country’s salvation and development once I take the country’s top office for a long enough period”. The result is that Tymoshenko and Yushchenko are competing in populism, while Yanukovych, in the absence of State resource, is busy with NATO and language-related issues. This provides an explanation as to why we keep making the same mistake, which is because we make no headway. A country cannot move ahead unless and until the main state and public challenges are correctly identified and begun to be dealt with. Purely personal and corporate interests of policy makers cannot provide enough progress to drive us away from the same old mistake.

Speaking of wasting their time on political games while gas and inflation crises loom...

The Kyiv Mayoral Election vs. Macroeconomics

Taras Kuzio, writing in the Eurasia Daily Monitor, thinks BYT's candidate in the Kyiv mayoral election, Turchynov, will be able to get past Klitchko and Chernovetsky, citing corruption charges against both of the latter. I still fail to see how Turchynov is going avoid similar charges sufficiently to overcome the huge gap in public support between himself and the main contenders--particularly since there will be no runoff. Not that we should want Chernovetsky to win (which recent polls think he might, using the same tactics as last year).

This mayoral election is the biggest distraction from the two main problems for Ukraine, both of which are economic: inflation and fuel price hikes. 

While Tymoshenko was certainly overstating things when she said her government was getting the highest appreciation in the world and holding inflation policy unchanged will be enough, it is true that she was praised by the WTO.
The IMF was more moderate in its praise. In this report it did not actively argue against her privatization plan, but it definitely suggested holding back at least some of the money thus earned to promote a more balanced budget (meaning less going to Tymoshenko's handouts). Another one of its main points is that the hryvnia should be allowed to float against the dollar (meaning appreciate, in the current economic climate). According to the Ukrainian Journal, the NBU seems interested and Tymoshenko has reigned in her criticism of the bank on at least this issue. The WTO and IMF both make the situation with inflation seem less dire than Dzerkalo Tizhnya seems to think it is, but DzT bases more of its assessment on an expected massive fuel price hike from Russia (something I also think is imminent, and the IMF notes as a potentially major problem).

Two More Good Items 

One alternative to politics-watching is this entry on Ukrainiana about Chernobyl. It includes Taras's own story from living (six years old) in Kyiv at the time. It also is heavily laden with YouTube videos related to the event.

Another wonderful and unrelated article by John Marone at Eurasia Home praises the introduction of national standardized university examinations. One step forward for transparency, one step backward for corruption.

BYuT and NUNS fight over city politics, the nation gets closer to crisis

February and part of March were the Party of Region's chance to waste everyone's time blocking parliament with their NATO Circus of Obstructionism. The end of March seems to have been burnt up looking for the next issue for politicians to focus on. Now it's April and they've finally found something to keep themselves from addressing any of the multiple looming disasters—the Kyiv Mayoral Election.

NUNS is the less popular party, but is pushing for the vastly more popular candidate in this election: Klitchko. BYuT's candidate is Turchynov, who has about 6% popularity to Klitchko's 31%. That means that if Tymoshenko wants him to win she'll have to spend massive amounts of time and political capital to do so. So far she doesn't seem to have been deterred at seeing what PoR earned for its anti-NATO efforts on a national level—a ten percent drop in popularity and repeated local election losses to Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko.

Certainly Baloha and his new gang (a breakaway from NUNS) haven't acted constructively and won't do so in the future. But NUNS bleeds votes every election because of their pettiness and unprofessionalism. It's BYuT, which is stronger and more politically savvy that will need to compromise here, because there are much bigger national problems her Cabinet needs to be addressing.

Inflation

Thank's to IIU's blogging, readers here already know that inflation is a big problem that's getting worse. Years without reform, worldwide price increases for foodstuffs, government-on-government increases in unsupported payouts to voters (the most recent being Tymoshenko's payments on Soviet accounts) have all resulted in 26% inflation this March.

As with other issues, NUNS and BYuT are working at cross-purposes. Tymoshenko's payouts went through, but the privatizations she proposed to use to generate the money to pay for them were vetoed by Yushchenko. She's tried to get rid of a longstanding land auction ban which she also thinks could improve economic growth (I do, too) and has again been vetoed by Yushchenko. I would be less apt to think Yushchenko was simply playing spoiler if I saw any indication that he has a better plan instead of his usual vague generalities.

Tymoshenko has said the government going to stop inflation in five to six months. To do this will take actual reforms, though, and that means working with NUNS. That may not be possible under any circumstances, but fighting over the Kyiv mayor is the one way to ensure defeat.

Gas Price Hikes

RosUkrEnergo is still hanging on in Ukraine-Russia gas deals despite Tymoshenko's opposition. She is claiming a victory anyway by saying that the deals will happen on Russian soil so it is technically "out of the Ukrainian market", but it looks from this angle like she's trying to save face after failing to eliminate it.

Though Russia has been able to keep its intermediary (and its active push to keep RosUkrEnergo throughout the negotiations last month confirms that it is, indeed, Russia's preferred intermediary), this won't stop Ukraine's gas prices from increasing significantly in the next few months. The ultimate driving force will be simple, rational self-interest: why sell at under $200 per m³ to Ukraine when Europe will soon be paying over $300 per m³ to Europe?

The price rise has already been foreshadowed: a month ago Russia increased the price it pays Central Asia for gas. This was not out of generosity: it was a revision to preempt hard bargaining by Central Asia, or (much worse for Russia) actual progress on alternative gas routes to Europe that don't include it (one of them is Tymoshenko's White Stream project, lauded by The Economist, which would be a great use of her considerable political skills if she weren't too busy in Kyiv). Russia's price increase is likely to be passed on to Europe in the near future, and Ukraine should not expect to be far behind.

We should not be distracted from this issue. Yes, another Russian general has threatened to attack Ukraine militarily (and with "other methods" as well), and responding in a professional manner was important. Yes, Kommersant claims Putin said Ukraine "isn't a real nation" and it will "cease to exist" if it joins NATO (a claim his government has not refuted). Ukrainian politicians should remember this when dealing with Russia (Hey, Yanukovych, you've been shouting a lot about Ukrainian national sovereignty at anti-NATO rallies—refresh my memory, when did any NATO ally threaten that as much as Putin just did?). Nevertheless, the real motive force in the gas sphere will be the $100 per m³ price differential. Either Russia will take payment in cash, or in ownership of Ukrainian energy assets, but it won't sit for long without payment.

I don't know when the hike will come. Gazprom may not know, and maybe not even the Russian government. But since the Russian government doesn't like NATO and doesn't think Tymoshenko is going to give it anything in exchange for the discount pricing, the hike will certainly come this year. If Russia is looking to improve its chances of getting paid, it may hike them this summer or wait until inflation is more under control, so it doesn't catch Ukraine when it is more desperate. If it wants to shake Ukraine up more it may load on the hike about the same time that inflation problems come to a head.

Not Even Together Enough To Host A Soccer Match

Inadequate preparation for Euro 2012 should be a big issue. There is $25 billion more investment that needs to be made, Ukraine's reputation is on the line—this should be a cause for major concern. But, because the government has gotten into an inflationary and budgetary mess that dwarfs even this event, all that I'll do is note that it's still a problem. I will add, though, that it particularly unhelpful to see Yushchenko blithely state that everything is going smoothly despite warnings from Ukraine's host partner Poland and the Euro 2012 committee.

Tymoshenko Should Support Klitchko 

Below inflation, gas prices, Euro 2012, somewhere under corruption in public transportation, is the Kyiv mayoral election. And yet, the politicians of an entire nation are occupying themselves with this single city election.

Tymoshenko doesn't need to look very far to know what she should do in this situation: all she needs to do is remember her own decision ahead of the 2004 presidential election.

In 2004 she gave up her own candidacy in order to support Yushchenko, despite her ego and despite the animosity between them that is unlikely to have emerged fully-formed in January of 2005. The reason she did so was that she did not have a real chance at the presidency (her public popularity was in the low teens, I believe), but Yushchenko needed help to overcome his opponent Yanukovych. Divided, their two parties could have both lost a legitimate election to Yanukovych. In doing the right thing, Tymoshenko also earned enough voter support to improve her political rating far beyond anything she had had thusfar.

Tymoshenko should support Klitchko. Like Tymoshenko in 2004, Turchynov in 2008 is little more than a spoiler. This is especially true since the mayoral election, unlike the presidential, is decided without a runoff (though BYuT is trying to change this). If Turchynov and Klitchko fight one another, it is likely that both will lose to to Chornovetsky, whi is still polling above 30% popularity.

In a real, monetary way, Ukrainians cannot afford to watch BYuT and NUNS continue to squabble. If Tymoshenko makes the magnanimous step here, not only will it improve the nation's chances in the upcoming crises, but likely result in voters rewarding her as they did after 2004.

"Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s group will soon join forces with opposition Regions Party to create a panel in Parliament that would focus on making amendments to the constitution, lawmakers said Monday. The panel, which will be a direct challenge to President Viktor Yushchenko’s own plans for re-writing the constitution, will focus on whether to dramatically increase powers of the prime minister." (Ukrainian Journal)

While "The faction of the Party of Regions at the Verkhovna Rada has elected Anatolii Kinakh as the deputy chairman of the faction for coordination with other parties and NGOs.... Anatolii Kinakh is the leader of the Ukrainian League of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs and the head of the all-Ukrainian Association of NGOs "People's Majority of Ukraine." The main tasks of faction deputy chairman Kinakh include the realization of public initiatives, accumulation of successful experience of NGOs and political organizations, the consolidation of their influence on the democratic reforms in the society and the organization of civil control over the work of the authorities." (Ukrainian News)

It's the politicians who are thuggish

Democracy has never been the most polite form of government. If one were to try to find a government full of polite officials, one would want to look elsewhere, say the latter part of the reign of Louis XIV in France. No, democracies are confrontational and often raucous. Thanks to a commercial for milk, for example, I won't ever forget that American politician and vice president Aaron Burr and American founding father Alexander Hamilton fought each other to the death over an insult. Or the non-milk-related historical incident of Preston Brooks beating Charles Sumner into unconsciousness with a cane on the senate floor while his friends stood guard with a pistol (which, incidentally was not enough to get him kicked out of the Senate).

Be that as it may, democracies have had a few decades to learn some manners. Which is why the incivility of Ukrainian politicians is particularly galling. Both this great Business Ukraine article, and this good article from Taras Kuzio's blog lay out the situation well.

Internal Affairs Minister Punches Mayor of Kyiv

A new low point came when Internal Affairs Minister Yuriy Lutsenko punched Kyiv Mayor Leonid Chernovetskiy in front of top politicians. My kudos to Kyiv Post for their response: having the top figure in law enforcement try to score points by hitting an opponent is an embarrassment. For him continue to be pleased with him about it is disgusting. PoR is right: resigning would be a respectable thing for him to do, kicking him out would be fair (though their scrums around the podium whenever Yushchenko and Tymoshenko factions are looking concilatory are hardly different, aside from the number of people involved). What an appalling model Lutsenko showed all the police officers under him.

Listen to Leopold the Cat: "Let's Live in Harmony!"I wouldn't take things as far as Kyiv Post and call directly for the resignation. It would be enough to see an apology and chalk one more bad mark for crudeness in Ukrainian politics. But Ukrainians won't even get that. (update: They did! Lutsenko apologized. My respects to him for admitting his mistake like an adult, and I wish him luck in corruption-fighting) Instead, Yushchenko ordered a probe. (What in the world could that be for? Lutsenko hit him in full view of other politicians, nothing could be more obvious. Is he implying that there's something Chernovetskiy could have said that would justify the attack?)

What's worse, I rather like some of Lutsenko's politics, and it hasn't hurt my impression of him that PoR's done everything it can to stymie him. How disappointing to see him disporting like them, then.

They Talk Ugly, Too

It seems almost anticlimactic to mention more bad language from Yanukovych after Lutsenko's actual violence. Moreover, he used it to accuse his opponents of separating friends from khokhols (an epithet used against Ukrainians), rather than calling them names directly (like chattel, among other things). But much of the nastiness in Ukrainian politics starts in this way. As Kuzio points out: since it is not possible to actually prosecute high-level officials for libel, or anything else for that matter, libelous and hateful words abound.

The problem is in finding the limit. Generally the thing that stops politicians is not fear of accountability before their peers, it is fear of disgusting voters. When that's the only check on words, things get ugly, because voters are notoriously responsive to negativity: the limit on scathing words is not particularly stringent.

Not Much In the Way of A Fix 

I know I'm not going to wow you by saying that the best step towards more civility would be to remove deputy immunity from prosecution. The new government is more likely than the Yushchenko-Yanukovych association to actual scrap the immunity, but there's still not a lot of movement forward.

To end on at least a mildly optimistic note, there's one form of ugly speech that Ukraine is relatively free of: military bellicosity. This is a particularly attractive feature of politics in this country when I compare it to, say, the statements that get made by Russian generals these days.

"The Cabinet of Ministers has granted the State Tax Administration and the State Customs Service permission to ignore illegal court decisions that grant exemptions on payment of taxes. ... «In order to protect our Customs, Tax Administration, and other [bodies] that are obliged to collect taxes, we have adopted a special resolution that grants the freedom and the right on the basis of the Constitution not to implement criminal court decisions that are knowingly issued,» Tymoshenko said. Tymoshenko read to journalists several rulings issued by courts in Kharkiv and Kremenchuk that exempted businesspeople from paying taxes. Tymoshenko stressed that the existence of criminal groups among representatives of the government, courts, and enterprises was resulting in evasion of taxes and a shortfall in budget revenues necessary for financing increases in pensions and wages. Tymoshenko also said that the Cabinet of Ministers has directed the Justice Ministry to document illegal court decisions with the aim of asking the parliament to remove the judges that issued the illegal decisions and asking the Prosecutor-General’s Office to file criminal cases against them.

According to Tymoshenko, Deputy Prosecutor-General Tetiana Korniakova, who was present at the Cabinet of Ministers meeting, supported the idea of launching criminal cases against judges that issue illegal decisions. Moreover, Tymoshenko said that she intended to ask the Supreme Court’s chief justice to document illegal court decisions and draw the necessary conclusions." (Ukrainian News)

"According to a statement released today on the Ministry of Justice’s official website, the Cabinet of Ministers is planning to remove the stamps “Not to be printed” and “Not to be published” from Cabinet of Ministers Resolutions and Instructions issued between 1991 and 2005 since these stamps are not allowed for by Ukrainian legislation. The Minister of Justice Mykola Onishchuk informs that the relevant Instruction on revoking these stamps has already gone through checking procedure in the Ministry. He adds that the Instruction is aimed at ensuring citizens’ rights of access to information, as guaranteed by the Constitution and the European Convention on Human Rights. 

The statement goes on to say that the Cabinet of Ministers plans to ensure free access to legislative acts which were not on general access in previous years.

The Minister states that restrictions in access to more than one thousand government acts issued between 1991 and 2005 will be removed.

Approximately 300 others will have the above mentioned stamps removed, however will still not be available to public scrutiny with another stamp “For official use only” being used instead.  It is stated that almost all these acts deal with defence and security or contain issues relating to economic competition." (bold is mine, from KHPG)

New proposed law by the President would make changes to the Cabinet Minister's Bill and powers. The stated goal of the proposed law is to bring the Bill in line with the Constitution. It would give the right to the President to refuse to put forward a candidate for the PM to Parliament (under current legislation the President's hands are tied and they must put forward a candidate.) Also it would provide that a government's action plan needs to be approved at the same time that the PM candidate is voted on in Parliament. (UNIAN in ukr)

Speaker of the Parliament Yatseniuk believes that deputy immunity will be voted out. He stated that in order to do so, the Constitution needs to be changed and in order for this to happen, would take several sessions and 300 votes. He said it was possible. (btw according to survery polls the Ukrainian populace is overwhelmingly in favor of ditching deputy immunity from prosecution.)

Get 2008 budget set up before end of year and conduct a compete audit relating to all of Yanu's Cabinet's expenditures, privatizations, tenders, etc. The 2008 budget has to be okayed or Ukraine will not have one beginning Jan. 1st. and govt stops functioning while a thorough audit of predecessor's records is also a worthwhile function but maybe complicated if Azarov is missing in action. Reputedly, those in PoR learnt from the last time that they had their offices taken over and quite alot during this past Cabinet was not written down.

First Cabinet meeting held today while in Parliament, Shyfrysch and Lykash called for the public announcement that the 'democratic coalition' is no more due to the number of deputies 14 who have been kicked upstairs into Cabinet from BYuT and NUNS. (Story from Ukrainian Journal) While Central Election Commisssion has announced that it will take at least a week (?) to register new deputies to Parliament. The lack of 226 votes does create a 'gray area' for the coalition - it is in technical default but not. Kinda like limbo and it makes sense to postpone Parliament sessions until this is cleared up and we all cheer Lytvyn Bloc's people to help make this possible. And of course, PoR is going to block registration of new deputies (jeez is there any doubt about this? They who worked so hard to delay the vote and formation of a new Cabinet for close to 80 days ???)

Yep, the opposition is going to play hardball - Bohatyriova for First Deputy Speaker. 

OMG - I do not want to be in Yukhym Zvyahilsky's shoes for all the tea in China !!! and India !!! "Cabinet Appoints Turchynov Head Of Commission For Liquidation Of Zasiadko Mine Blast Aftermath." Turchynov is a combination of the energizer Bunny, Inspector Gagdet,  James Bond 007. In order - he never quits, he will figure out a way how and he always gets his man. He is driven, focused and will not quit. Excellent choice. My compliments - give 'em hell. :) And my advice to Zvyahilsky - don't even try it and spill everything with the first question. You are not going to prevent the inevitable unless you skip the country.

And I am cool with the following choice "President Viktor Yuschenko is proposing that the Verkhovna Rada appoint Valentyn Nalyvaichenko as chief of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU)."

While Ukraine's population has dropped - yet again - this time to  46,5 million people.

'after evening plenary session at the working area of deputy Dmitry PRITIKI (faction of Party of Regions) after closing of the evening meeting of parliament the elements of the electronic system "Rada" was discovered' (UNIAN in ukr)

[doing up a count Omelchenko 1 vote problem with premature release and Yatsenyuk's card being taken from the machine there is well, what happened to the second vote? they have a total of 227 right, so 225+1 brings up to 226. Don't know but for a deputy to have at their work location sections of code relating to the electronic system is a major no-no.]

Secret Services has initiated a criminal case against Minister of Transport Rudkovksy relating to financial misappropriation of funds from the budget of the Ministry around $80,000 relating to private plane ride - Kyiv to Paris roundtrip. Rudkovky's whereabouts are currently unknown as he evaded the investigators. (UNIAN ukr)

     (I am doing stuff on the fly so pls. point out any errors or inaccuracies - they are unintentional. Thank you.)

Politicians and their lifestyles including their clothing are closely followed and this piece does some interviewing regarding the phenom. And there are photos of Tymoshenko's Ukrainian hand embroidered ensemble which she wore on Dec. 3rd. (Better photographs here.) From UNIAN photos here, here (Turchynov in background), here and here with Nina Matvienko.

Also today in Ukraine was the honoring the disabled. President Yushchenko stated that he would fire any authorities who are not sensitive to the problems of the disabled (such as transportation for wheelchair bound etc..)

Three years ago the Constitutional Court in Kyiv announced the decision which made invalidated the second round of Presidential elections and set the way open for a new round of Presidential elections.

And at press conference of BYuT politicians from Dnipropetrovsk information was revelaed regarding illegal actions of local authorities and governement relating to land deals. Will try to get the okay for new elections in Spring 2008 to get city officials voted out. 

And missed picking up the following news item published on Dec. 1st, " Ambassador of China to Ukraine Zhou Li and two more people were taken to hospital after a road accident that occurred in Kyiv on November 30."

WTO WATCH 

Report from UNIAN - Azarov calls the EU requirement for Ukraine to drop export taxes, 'an artificial barrier in Ukraine's path to entry'. (From just a few days ago) (Why is it coming up now? When EU has been saying this prior, yes/no? This was known before the documents were handed over to the WTO working group. After the Kyrkygz situation, I am finding difficult to beleive what is being side on these issues from certain Ukrainian politicians.) 

Yatsenuik/Yatsenyuk wants to hold consultations with all fractions in Parliament. (in eng)

Tymoshenko has stated that everyone in BYuT supports Yatsenuik's cadidacy as Speaker. 

While Chechetov of  Party of Regions has stated that the entire political party will boycott the vote for Speaker. While Bohatyriova states that there are no official overtures from Yatseniuk to meet. And stated that in answer to the question, if PoR will put forth their own candidate, that no such discussion has been held yet. (Personally, I find this very hard to believe.) BTW in the photo accompanying the photo are Bohatyriova and two other prominent deputies from PoR.

Update: Now Bohatyriova states that the meeting with Yatseniuk if he is officially nominated. Well, now he IS the official nomination, will PoR meet with him now?

     Just as a person on the street stated in the talk show Maidan that PoR/CPU taught the democratic coalition how to work (be effective), the PoR/CPU is conducting a Master Class in how to "work" while being in opposition. Preach to the public in public appearances and in the press, that they will be constructive opposition and then construct, obstruct, instruct, destruct, construe, ... 

Tymoshenko has stated that she will leave the office of Prime Minister if she does not fulfill campaign promise of giving the money lost by depositors, in accounts Soviet-era banks inc. Oschadbank. (story in english here) "The comments show that Tymoshenko is determined to go ahead with the controversial plan that some economists say is very dangerous and may lead to financial instability. The persistence to the plan may lower support for Tymoshenko when lawmakers get together for approving the next prime minister next week. Among the potential sources of funding the payments, Tymoshenko mentioned “an honest privatization,” which indicates that she might try to sell state-owned assets to raise cash for the payments."

Former PM Yekhanurov and deputy of OU-PSD explained in an interview with Delo newspaper (UNIAN) why he signed the coalition agreement. He put it down to a question of national interest. He said that in meeting President Yushchenko said to him, "«For almost three years of the presidency I not once ever had a pro-Presidential majority and have not lead any fatal decision for the country in Parliament». (Delo rus)

And in a side story, Yanukovych's top bodyguard/security guy has been relieved of duty by an order from Pres. Yuschenko signed and dated Dec. 1st. (Think it is an administrative order as Yanukovych has officially resigned from Prime Minister position. As of this moment in time, the only legitimate representative of Ukrainian government is the President. If the democratic coalition holds and the PM is voted on, Cabinet members chosen, etc. then a new PM may be in place tomorrow, while the PoR/CPU go into opposition. Will see what happens ... Will also see if Tymoshenko's idea of having the vote in the main hall with votes registered rather in a 'secret ballot' will take place. "Regions party insists on secret voting during election of Speaker" It is a vote where the votes are not publicly acknowledged but "secret" I beg to differ with, as when deputies from certain parties like PoR vote, there is someone standing right next to the box, before the vote is put in to which the deputy shows (it is face up) how they voted. It is a "secret" only to the public and not on an official record.)

Sidenote: What may end up being fateful for Ukraine in its discussions with Gazprom over the price of natural gas, may be the agreements signed that basicly freeze the rates which Ukraine can charge for transiting gas to Europe for Gazprom. These agreements were signed back in Jan. 2006 after the gas-shut off crisis. STILL no official price notification for what Urkaine will pay for gas though in reality discussions have been in motion since August. This is one of the challenges that the new Cabinet will face in addition to inflation, etc.

Regarding Chornobyl 

"President Viktor Yuschenko has directed the Cabinet of Ministers to develop list of primary tasks at the Shelter (Ukryttia) facility of the Chornobyl nuclear power plant and envisage their funding in the state’s budget 2008-2012. ... Yuschenko has also tasked the Cabinet to discuss with the European reconstruction and development bank inclusion of funds allocated from the state’s budget to implement listed primary tasks as additional contribution of Ukraine into Chornobyl fund Ukryttia. As Ukrainian News reported, in July Yuschenko has directed the Cabinet of Ministers to hold audition of implementation of tasks set forth in the Plan on implementation of measures at Ukryttia by 2008." (full story)

While Poroshenko (head of the National Bank) stated that inflation could rise as high to 15.5% this year, an agreement was reached with Azarov and the Cabinet on Nov. 22nd "on creation of a working group to draft a new method for calculating inflation rates." The group is set to start work on Monday, November 26th. (Hopefully, official stats will be closer in line with reality, in future.)

Shell is not going to be purchasing Regal assets in Ukraine after Regal appointed as CEO an ex-Shell employee, David Greer. "Royal Dutch Shell has pulled out of a deal, announced just two days ago, to acquire a large stake in the Ukrainian gasfields of Regal Petroleum after Regal appointed a new management team on Thursday. A Shell spokeswoman said: “We were not expecting it and are deciding not to proceed. Our memorandum of understanding was with the previous management team.” In a deal that had been considered an encouraging step for Regal, Shell had agreed on Wednesday to invest up to $410 million (£199 million) to acquire 51 per cent of Regal Petroleum’s gasfields in Ukraine and to cover much of the development cost." (Times)

Well, it does not seem that Shell pulled out for the same reasons that Cardinal decided to sell its assets in Ukraine. "Cardinal Resources, an independent oil and gas exploration and production company, is selling off its Ukrainian interests in the wake of a decree by the government of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych that introduces price caps on gas sold by companies in joint activity agreements (JAA) with the state. Cardinal is being sold for $71 million to a company called Kuwait Energy, a private oil and gas company based in Kuwait, whose majority shareholders are unknown. ... The decree, which was passed in late 2006 and came into force early this year, obligates companies in JAAs with the state, or majority owned by the state, to sell gas to the state-owned oil and gas company Naftogaz Ukrainy at a fixed government rate of around $1.50 per 1,000 cubic feet – a fraction of the current market rate of $4.80 per 1,000 cubic feet. According to Bensh, the rate is even below the company’s production costs. ... Cardinal is not the only foreign investor trying to develop Ukraine’s oil and gas deposits feeling uneasy over the government’s decree. Anglo-Dutch energy giant Royal Dutch Shell, which has made an initial commitment of $100 million in a joint agreement with Ukrgazvydobuvannya to explore for oil and gas in central-eastern Ukraine, could also be affected down the road.“Decree 31 does not currently affect Shell’s exploration activities, which are just entering the seismic study phase. However, should these studies prove successful, and Shell and its partner begin producing gas, it will have an adverse effect on the project’s ability to remain profitable and sustainable,” Shell’s spokesman in Ukraine, Antonius Papaspiropoulos, told the Post." (Kyiv Post)

WTO Watch 

Kinakh announced that WTO working group will look at Ukraine's entry Nov. 30th to Dec. 2nd. And an article dated Nov. 22, in Kommersant stated that Ukraine outpaced Russia in regards to entry. They named Dec. 19th as the day that Ukraine could be invited by WTO to join.

Although, it seemed that it would be smooth sailing from opening of Parliament to formation of coalition, events went differently after the 'housekeeping' took place.

It started out with deputies lining up at their assigned locations (photos ukr, here, and eng)(with BYuT group showing off matching outfits: white sweaters with a red heart on the right breast), to the opening ceremonies and verbal oath taking, to deputies signing their oaths and having photo opportunities, the temporary presidium elected, the PM formally resigning and the end of the current Cabinet (Bohatyriova made a short speech thanking the Cabinet and PM for their 'efficient' work in office which was applauded by PoR and CPU deputies while BYuT and OU-PSD deputies were booing or silent), Moroz doing his last speech as Speaker denouncing the President and the legality of the elections - during which some BYut and OU-PSD deputies walked out of the main chamber of Parliament: 'taking a recess' (Moroz's speech was criticized as shaming and insulting the 5th convocation of Parliament by deputy Matvienko), the formation of 5 political groups in Parliament (1+1 report and video in ukr), (Kyrylenko is t to lead OU-PSD), there will be 26 committees, etc. after all items - Parliament/Rada was closed for the day. (Check out Channel 5 for report and video in ukr) (1+1 report and video in ukr)

Closed until November 29. Closed for 6 days.

     But what a sec., they just opened Parliament and then are going to shut it down for SIX days with no PM, no Cabinet, etc.? (Yes, I know the PM and Cabinet become 'caretaker' government until the new one is formed but it you know what I mean. Please note that the decision to shut down for six days happened quite abruptly and without warning (a number of deputies were away from their locations and found out about the closure and delay, afterwards, but to continue ....) After the Parliamentary working group was supposed to actually begin workig November 6th? and kept getting delayed and stalled? Yep. But why? Well, according to Party of Regions spokesperson, Chornovil, Raisa Bohatyriova did so because not all deputies signed the coalition agreement. According to Ukrayinska Pravda, 8 MPs/deputies did not sign:

"According to sources, Stanislav Dovhy, Yuriy Yekhanurov, Ihor Kril, Mykola Onishchuk, Ihor Palytsya, Vasyl Petyovka, Ivan Plyushch and Viktor Topolov did not sign the agreement. Those persons explained their position due to admonitions to the agreement text. At the same time, it was reported that the decision on the coalition formation with Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc was supported unanimously on Friday session." (Novynar ukr) UPDATE: and newly elected PSD deputy Doniy (known from 1990/91 "Protests on the Granite" which helped bring down the Ukrainian SSR) criticized "these Baloha's people" - he called for the President to influence those who have not signed the agreement. update from 1+1 that one person has since signed: Palytsya. And statement regarding the 7 non-signees from another newly elected deputy from PSD former investigative journalist for Channel 5 of the show, 'Zakryta Zona', Ar'yev.

Well, BYuT and OU-PSD voiced their discontent with the shutdown of Parliament for 6 days and the next meeting session of Parliament is Tuesday Nov. 27th with Zvarych (in eng) presiding and not the Presisium head, Bohatyriova. (Well see if the Party of Regions show up and if they come this time in blue and white sweaters.)

Tymoshenko voiced her sentiments that the 6 day break was for "Це (рішення) - абсолютне порушення регламенту. Їм потрібен час, щоб і далі підкуповувати депутатів. Вони хочуть виграти кілька днів. Оголошення перерви є самодіяльністю Раїси Богатирьової", - сказала Тимошенко, коментуючи рішення про закриття засідання у п’ятницю, 23 листопада." (Tymoshenko) It (decision) is absolute violation of regulation. They need time, and farther to suborn/purchase deputies. They want to win a few days. Announcement of interruption is the independent action of Raisa Bohatyriova", - said [Tymoshenko], commenting a decision about closing of meeting in Friday, on November, 23. 

Bohatyriova named according to her opinion the candidates for Speaker as: Lytvyn (leader of Lytvyn Bloc), Plyushch (see "Curses" entry), or Symonenko (leader of Communist Party of Ukraine.) 

In regards to the signatures on the coalition agreement, BYuT and OU-PSD have achieved a compromise. The sticking point was the eradication of the contract army and setting a 5% threshold to enter Parliament. (Pres. Yushchenko was also against the end to the contract army before 2010.) But according to Lutsenko all is well now and even Tymoshenko says that the coalition will happen.

No surprise, President Yushchenko in an interview stated that "the main source of this political instability remained the parliament. " (ukranews) He did not attend the opening day of Parliament and instead handed out writing prizes about the Holodomor.

    All of this is seems really childish and annoying but the games/intrigues/staregies/machinations are super-serious as the power plays continue.

    Is the current administration only interested in 'short-term' answers until it becomes another Cabinet's and another PM's problem???

"As if it wasn't dramatic enough yet, experts are predicting that inflation in Ukraine will take another spike upwards in January, as the government is interested in controlling the inflation rate only until the end of the year. News reports are quoting Vyacheslav Gerasimovich, an expert at CASE-Ukraine, as saying that the government's main task is to keep inflation within certain limits, like 11 percent, by the year's end. After that, apparently, people's interest in prices will fall off, and the government will let inflation creep up again." (bold is mine) (url for story here)

Story about inflation in Ukraine (UNIAN ukr) and inflation hit a record seven year high in October 2007. (UNIAN ukr) while Horbal states not to "dramatize inflation". (MW ukr)

Eventually someone at sometime will mess with the hryvnia (UNIAN ukr) and it is expected at some time to go down.

In the trajectory of who would be the head of the working group for the new Parliamentary session, the prize goes to Raisa Bohatyriova from the Party of Regions. (Ah, betcha you did not see that coming! esp. not after their ultimatum to accept no one but Martinyuk! So yet again, Party of Regions has these great pr moments in front of the cameras emphasizing to the voters, how they (PoR) are 'working' and making strides, etc. while at the same time emphasizing how the 'democratic' coalition blew it. Of course, there is no mention by PoR of their part in deadlocking the entire process and threatening a deputy blockade of the podium or maybe even a deputy no-show leaving the new Parliament a stillborn death. This round definitely goes to them.)

And 449 out of 450 deputies/MPs have been registered by the Central Election Committee. Which was also busy in giving Kivalov an award and medal for 'honesty'. Kivalov who was involved in announcing that Yanukovych won the second round of Pres. elections which were later invalidated is quoted as saying in an interview today that "to this day, no one has thanked me" for doing his job.

NOVEMBER 23 is the new date when the coalition agreement between BYT and OU-PSD is expected to be signed by all of those in Our Ukraine-PSD. And the expected start date of the New Rada/Parliament.  

The beaten body of a Donetsk police captain has been found. "The statement reads that the 36-year-old police captain was the chief inspector for personnel at the police department at Donetsk railways. Circumstances of his death are being investigated." (This is heavy news indeed and will watch my copies of "Men Never Weep" and mourn. Whether he was a bad man or a good man, I know not, but am shocked that neither his uniform nor office kept him from being killed.) While "The Donetsk District Administrative Court banned the Donetsk Republic, a public association, on November 6 for violating the legislation on associations of citizens as well as for organizing activities aimed at violating the territorial integrity of Ukraine."

In regards to the Balck Sea/Kerch Strait oil spill - there is no money for adequate cleanup of oil spill/wreckage on Tuzla Island while no money will be asked as recompense for sailor rescue ops. Total cost of clean up expected to be at least $10 mil USD [or is it total cost $13 bil USD] and TEN YEARS to eliminate effects of the disaster. [Of course, no amount can be placed on those who have died (and will die) as a result of the catastrophe - both human and animal. Now there are reports that in addition to birds (the area is a major spot for the migration of birds 30,000 dead was quoted), dolphins as well as other sea life, are dying as well.]

BTW - cyclone weather predicted for coming weekend. And power is still out in numerous Ukrainian regions but is expected to be turned on around Nov. 17th - let's hope so as -7C weather at night is expected.

And to try to curb stories like the following: "Nine People Taken To Hospital After Road Accident In Kyiv" and in Kyiv today a car from the Ministry of Internal Affairs killed a little girl, not to mention the numerous accidents involving fast-driving deputies, their special license plates as well as others in govt employ are being liquidated within a month. These license plates, allowed those in govt service to have a 'get out of obeying any type of driving law or pay any fine'. And driving schools are being evaluated. Even scare tactics may be deployed showing pics of road accidents to those getting licenses. But the problem is how to eradicate corruption in a country where even a guy resp. for that type of stuff - sees no sense in taking away special license plates. And for those whose have given in their special license plates - they are getting new ones which are also 'special.'

Well it is not going to be Europe's problem once the true weight of the new Schengen zone rules comes to bear (not that this will affect the muckey-mucks.) But it will effect Ukraine's economy (money going into Ukraine from workers abroad) and the 'shadow economy'. Human trafficking will only increase as it gets harder to get into "Fortress Europe".

In regards to UkraTatNafta Kremenchug refinery - neither Russian nor Tatarstan shareholders were at the shareholders mtg. today.

And Channel 1+1 (second largest tv broadcaster in Ukraine) had one of its licenses revoked as it was not showing Parliamentary sessions which it was supposed to but instead other programming. Channel 1+1 is trying to work this out. Channel 1+1 esp. in its news segments, had provided some of the best coverage in the past (aside from Channel 5) but with its new owners there was expected to be 'changes'.

And according to news report - Ukraine and Gazprom have 'in principle' agreed upon on a price for natural gas. Earlier it had been announced to be $160 1,000 c m  by CEO of Gazprom. No official announcement yet, but Ukraine was trying to get into the $150 to $160 range.

And although many die in Ukraine from TB because they simply do not get treatment and for those who do - multi-drug resistance TB on the rise as well in Ukraine, "November 12 the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria declined Ukraine's application for obtaining a grant in the amount of USD 94.683 million to fight tuberculosis. ... A well-informed source told Ukrainian News that the Global Fund decision not to give money to Ukraine is reasoned with a number of drawbacks. He specified such decision results from the Cabinet of Ministers' non-committing all its obligations to the Global Fund on the current and previously allocated grants, unsatisfactory work of the National council for resisting tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS and also the Global Fund considers that Ukraine provides insufficient funds from the state budget to prevent and treat HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis." (bold is mine) (So, I guess the message from the Global Fund is "die, because your government does not care about you and so neither do we.") 

Angry and crursing

During a time of price increases and inflation, "The Cabinet of Ministers has reduced the size of the monthly increase in the pensions of former workers of the Chornobyl nuclear power plant that were made redundant as a result of the shutdown of the plant from 50% to 25% of the size of the subsistence minimum for disabled people. ... As Ukrainian News earlier reported, the state budget for 2007 provides for raising the monthly subsistence minimum for disabled people (which is used as the guideline for establishing the size of the minimum pension) from UAH 380 on January 1 to UAH 406 ($81) on April 1 and UAH 411 ($82) on October 1." (UkraNews eng)

"BYuT front-runner Yulia Tymoshenko claims that the first session of the Verkhovna Rada of sixth convocation will open no later than on November 26." (UNIAN eng) (UNIAN ukr)

She also balmed the Party of Regions and Communist Party of Ukraine in messing up todays session of the working group for the New Parliament. The working group did have a quorum but no decisions were ratified - even could not make decision as to the leader of the working group - from BYT+OU-PSD Zvarych while PoR+CPU pushed Martinyuk.  (UNIAN ukr) (UNIAN ukr)

At this point only 270 deputies out of 450 have been registered by the Central Election Commitee. (UNIAN ukr) And this piece in eng relates the view from the Party of Regions. Though according to info. PoR did submit documents (morning of Nov. 12) to CEC for registering all 175 of its MPs/deputies though it has yet to be made 'official'. This is expected to happen on Nov. 15th (UNIAN ukr)

     Every day delayed is a day longer for PoR+CPU in power and a day closer to new early Parliamentary elections. What actually seems to be needed to speed things up is as during the OR, people banging on drums outside the corridors of power to remind the politicians inside that voters are keeping watch. People pressure.

From Mirror Weekly an article translated into english about civil society and dangers to such: populism, political moralization and "Ukrainian “parasitic” tradition inculcated by seven decades of the communist regime".

"President Victor Yushchenko on Friday chaired a meeting on Ukraine’s WTO accession, according to the President`s press-office. Deputy Economy Minister Valeriy Pyatnytsky, who leads the country’s delegation in WTO talks, said Ukraine must complete negotiations with Kyrgyzstan, agree on its membership obligations and draft a final entry report with the WTO secretariat and pass necessary laws for this after consultations with other members of the organization. He added that these amendments and Ukraine`s WTO Accession Agreement could be adopted and ratified simultaneously." (UNIAN)

"Top Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine, Finance Minister Mykola Azarov will leave for Bishkek (Kirghizia) to solve problems connected with Ukraine’s joining WTO. ... (M.Azarov will head the Ukrainian part of this group, which will also include Foreign Minister of Ukraine Arseniy Yatseniuk)... [deputy President’s chief of staff Oleksander Shlapak] added that in case of a successful of work of the group, all the problems with Kirghizia will be solved in a week or in ten days." (UNIAN)

"Ukraine's inflation rate reached a 25- month high in October, almost doubled the government's inflation target for this year. Inflation accelerated to an annual 14.8 percent in October from 14.4 percent the month before, ...  Food costs increased 18.4 percent in October from the same month a year ago after a three-month drought damaged harvest, according to the statistics data. Prices for services jumped 18.9 percent in October as utility bills surged on higher prices for natural gas, while prices for manufactured goods increased 2.5 percent, the committee said." (bold is mine) (Bloomberg) (UNIAN eng)

While top economist Minister of Finance Azarov spouts off about the dangers of 'populism' and attacks the 'orangists'. (UNIAN eng)

========

WTO WATCH

" The Cabinet of Ministers is aiming to complete preparation of a final report on admission of Ukraine into the WTO in late November." (not sure what year is being talked about here ...????) but the following from the report is very TRUE: "

Khandohii recognized the possibility of some risks for Ukraine at the first stages, after joining the WTO. «It may lead to a worsening of the situation in certain regions,» he added." (full story in eng)

And for anyone who missed it good Jon Marone article in Kyiv Post about Ukraine and WTO, aptly entitled, "Lies, Damned Lies and Ukraine's WTO Bid".

Update: Ukraine completed talks with Vietnam regarding WTO. (let's wait and see if the Vietnamese deny this news story.)