BYuT and NUNS fight over city politics, the nation gets closer to crisis

February and part of March were the Party of Region's chance to waste everyone's time blocking parliament with their NATO Circus of Obstructionism. The end of March seems to have been burnt up looking for the next issue for politicians to focus on. Now it's April and they've finally found something to keep themselves from addressing any of the multiple looming disasters—the Kyiv Mayoral Election.

NUNS is the less popular party, but is pushing for the vastly more popular candidate in this election: Klitchko. BYuT's candidate is Turchynov, who has about 6% popularity to Klitchko's 31%. That means that if Tymoshenko wants him to win she'll have to spend massive amounts of time and political capital to do so. So far she doesn't seem to have been deterred at seeing what PoR earned for its anti-NATO efforts on a national level—a ten percent drop in popularity and repeated local election losses to Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko.

Certainly Baloha and his new gang (a breakaway from NUNS) haven't acted constructively and won't do so in the future. But NUNS bleeds votes every election because of their pettiness and unprofessionalism. It's BYuT, which is stronger and more politically savvy that will need to compromise here, because there are much bigger national problems her Cabinet needs to be addressing.

Inflation

Thank's to IIU's blogging, readers here already know that inflation is a big problem that's getting worse. Years without reform, worldwide price increases for foodstuffs, government-on-government increases in unsupported payouts to voters (the most recent being Tymoshenko's payments on Soviet accounts) have all resulted in 26% inflation this March.

As with other issues, NUNS and BYuT are working at cross-purposes. Tymoshenko's payouts went through, but the privatizations she proposed to use to generate the money to pay for them were vetoed by Yushchenko. She's tried to get rid of a longstanding land auction ban which she also thinks could improve economic growth (I do, too) and has again been vetoed by Yushchenko. I would be less apt to think Yushchenko was simply playing spoiler if I saw any indication that he has a better plan instead of his usual vague generalities.

Tymoshenko has said the government going to stop inflation in five to six months. To do this will take actual reforms, though, and that means working with NUNS. That may not be possible under any circumstances, but fighting over the Kyiv mayor is the one way to ensure defeat.

Gas Price Hikes

RosUkrEnergo is still hanging on in Ukraine-Russia gas deals despite Tymoshenko's opposition. She is claiming a victory anyway by saying that the deals will happen on Russian soil so it is technically "out of the Ukrainian market", but it looks from this angle like she's trying to save face after failing to eliminate it.

Though Russia has been able to keep its intermediary (and its active push to keep RosUkrEnergo throughout the negotiations last month confirms that it is, indeed, Russia's preferred intermediary), this won't stop Ukraine's gas prices from increasing significantly in the next few months. The ultimate driving force will be simple, rational self-interest: why sell at under $200 per m³ to Ukraine when Europe will soon be paying over $300 per m³ to Europe?

The price rise has already been foreshadowed: a month ago Russia increased the price it pays Central Asia for gas. This was not out of generosity: it was a revision to preempt hard bargaining by Central Asia, or (much worse for Russia) actual progress on alternative gas routes to Europe that don't include it (one of them is Tymoshenko's White Stream project, lauded by The Economist, which would be a great use of her considerable political skills if she weren't too busy in Kyiv). Russia's price increase is likely to be passed on to Europe in the near future, and Ukraine should not expect to be far behind.

We should not be distracted from this issue. Yes, another Russian general has threatened to attack Ukraine militarily (and with "other methods" as well), and responding in a professional manner was important. Yes, Kommersant claims Putin said Ukraine "isn't a real nation" and it will "cease to exist" if it joins NATO (a claim his government has not refuted). Ukrainian politicians should remember this when dealing with Russia (Hey, Yanukovych, you've been shouting a lot about Ukrainian national sovereignty at anti-NATO rallies—refresh my memory, when did any NATO ally threaten that as much as Putin just did?). Nevertheless, the real motive force in the gas sphere will be the $100 per m³ price differential. Either Russia will take payment in cash, or in ownership of Ukrainian energy assets, but it won't sit for long without payment.

I don't know when the hike will come. Gazprom may not know, and maybe not even the Russian government. But since the Russian government doesn't like NATO and doesn't think Tymoshenko is going to give it anything in exchange for the discount pricing, the hike will certainly come this year. If Russia is looking to improve its chances of getting paid, it may hike them this summer or wait until inflation is more under control, so it doesn't catch Ukraine when it is more desperate. If it wants to shake Ukraine up more it may load on the hike about the same time that inflation problems come to a head.

Not Even Together Enough To Host A Soccer Match

Inadequate preparation for Euro 2012 should be a big issue. There is $25 billion more investment that needs to be made, Ukraine's reputation is on the line—this should be a cause for major concern. But, because the government has gotten into an inflationary and budgetary mess that dwarfs even this event, all that I'll do is note that it's still a problem. I will add, though, that it particularly unhelpful to see Yushchenko blithely state that everything is going smoothly despite warnings from Ukraine's host partner Poland and the Euro 2012 committee.

Tymoshenko Should Support Klitchko 

Below inflation, gas prices, Euro 2012, somewhere under corruption in public transportation, is the Kyiv mayoral election. And yet, the politicians of an entire nation are occupying themselves with this single city election.

Tymoshenko doesn't need to look very far to know what she should do in this situation: all she needs to do is remember her own decision ahead of the 2004 presidential election.

In 2004 she gave up her own candidacy in order to support Yushchenko, despite her ego and despite the animosity between them that is unlikely to have emerged fully-formed in January of 2005. The reason she did so was that she did not have a real chance at the presidency (her public popularity was in the low teens, I believe), but Yushchenko needed help to overcome his opponent Yanukovych. Divided, their two parties could have both lost a legitimate election to Yanukovych. In doing the right thing, Tymoshenko also earned enough voter support to improve her political rating far beyond anything she had had thusfar.

Tymoshenko should support Klitchko. Like Tymoshenko in 2004, Turchynov in 2008 is little more than a spoiler. This is especially true since the mayoral election, unlike the presidential, is decided without a runoff (though BYuT is trying to change this). If Turchynov and Klitchko fight one another, it is likely that both will lose to to Chornovetsky, whi is still polling above 30% popularity.

In a real, monetary way, Ukrainians cannot afford to watch BYuT and NUNS continue to squabble. If Tymoshenko makes the magnanimous step here, not only will it improve the nation's chances in the upcoming crises, but likely result in voters rewarding her as they did after 2004.

Located an english lang. source which dealt with the award to judge Maria Prindiuk by Pres. Yushchenko. (hat tip eP)

IFJ website (on site can link to actual letter) - "In a letter to Ukraine President Yushchenko, the International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) today condemned the awarding last week of the title “Lawyer of Honour of Ukraine” to Maria Prindiuk.

In April 2004 Judge Prindiuk closed the case against General Olexiy Pukach for destroying documents related to the case of Gyorgy Gongadze, the journalist murdered in September 2000. This action helped General Pukach, the prime suspect in Gongadze’s murder, to evade justice.

“This award represents a signal of support by your administration for officials who, whether deliberately or by their gross negligence, have allowed the organisers of Gongadze’s murder to go unpunished,” wrote Aidan White. “In this respect your administration is affording impunity to those organisers of the crime.”

The Presidential administration announced the award on 14 December. The award to Judge Prindiuk – like the medal awarded to former general prosecutor Mikhail Potebenko, who failed to take action when Gongadze approached him for help, and then woefully failed to investigate his murder – amounts to a reward for obstructing justice in this vital case.

The letter was supported by Gongadze’s widow, Myroslava Gongadze, the Institute of Mass Information, the Independent Media Trade Union of Ukraine and the National Union of Journalists of the UK and Ireland.

The IFJ urges President Yushchenko to revoke the title conferred upon Judge Prindiuk and to hold to account all those who have obstructed the successful investigation of the Gongadze case."

While in Simferopol, Crimean Mejli Tartars have set up a protest camp and are protesting for their heritage, rights and justice calling to the President to intervene. Story in ukr here and here. Will their appeal be heard? The leader of the Mejli stated that in Crimea Russian businessmen massively purchase land, bribe officials and initiate attacks on Tartar people using Russian youth. He cautioned that a quarter million Tartar could go on the streets in protest to protect themselves and their rights.

see Ukrainiana for coverage of recent events in Crimea inc. video relating to events which took place Ai-Petra near Yalta. (coverage from Novynar in ukr here, here, here and here.) (Background article which I have linked to before from Ukrayinksa Pravda in eng.)

It is Monday and the "Ukraine in Focus" newsletter is out with day by day coverage of last weeks events in english.

Visit Channel 5 for video goodies - prior to his leaving for abroad, President Yushchenko had an interview with Channel 5 and the video is downloadable (in ukr), Tymoshenko's speech to Parliament prior to the vote on her candidacy Dec. 11, press conference afterwards.

In the Channel 5 interview, Pres. Yushchenko "claims that Victor Yanukovych will not remain on the post of acting Prime Minister even if the head of the new government is not elected." He refers to it as 'suicide'. (UNIAN eng)

Sidenote it is an interesting point that in any discussion of a potential disaster or occurence of an accident esp. one involving chemicals, machinery, technological works - the phrase 'another Chornobyl' pops up in discourse esp. when the person is of a particular age and background and voter orientation.

(I am not sure where I am heading with this but will let you know. Would this be the key to unlocking the 'brotherhood' bond? To tell the truth about Chornobyl?)

Remember that there is nothing stable in human affairs; therefore avoid undue elation in prosperity, or undue depression in adversity.  - Socrates

Having not received responses from outgoing mail and from what responses I have been sent being akin to monkey puzzles (men in my life, it seems, are playing out "International Men of Mystery and Intrigue" Week), I am greatly concerned - so the above mentioned quote is apt. Especially when I think I have been played. And very well so too.

Direct 'war' with your foe can be exhausting. Pitched battles back and forth, etc. Look at football - lucky if there is even a score after hours of intense concentration and hard work (btw Blokhin will now be coaching a Moscow team.) So why not make it easier on yourself? Become 'one of them'? Turn oneself into a shining, glorious example of the opposing side. After all you do know their rhetoric, values, belief system, etc. Pitch a tent, set up camp and hang out a flag and then wait to see who comes a 'knockin. Invite them in, make them feel at home, be a 'warm stove' (in meantime id'ed their static IP addresses, discovered who they are and been welcomed into their 'families'), and gathered up enough intel, to turn chatter and whispers, on the net into names, addresses, etc. It is called a honeypot.

Sounds unlikely? far-fetched? and how does it relate to Ukrainian politics, if at all? Well, this technique is very commonly used and was most recently used by members, leaders, followers of what was formerly known as the 'anti-crisis coalition'. Like soilders who dress themselves in uniforms of those who they have killed, in order that they may walk amongst their foe in safety (another recent news story in Ukraine.) Slogans used by their counterparts were being stated in speeches, overtures were made ('see, we are the same you and I'), time and time again. 'Come, we are 'brothers' let's talk at the same table.' And so on and so on. Well, no broad coalition materialized despite rumors which truly gained momentum and leaped from 'speculation' to 'fact'. Faced with the election to PM of Tymoshenko in what would be a stunning defeat for the political party which did receive the highest number of votes, the rostrum was again blocked by Party of Regions deputies.

Upshot: The PoR got what they wanted - concessions were made and some very valuable posts for their own were obtained. And NO vote for Tymoshenko was held today and next Tuesday her candidacy for PM will be voted on by a show of hands.

PoR showed over the past year, how government can 'work' and now is showing how to 'work' in opposition. (Good guys/girls always finish last.)

Why is it that on the Pres. official website the ukr lang and eng lang content is not the same with eng lang news being short-changed (though the changes and upgrades have been a most welcome sight)? Why is it that 5 kanal completely stopped translating any of its content into english? Can someone please tell me why at UNIAN the major story of extreme importance to have published into the english lang is the following "Japanese scientists bred fearless mouse (photo)" - so imp. that it is the only story (so far released) from (local time) 2 pm. yesterday until 12:30 pm. today.?

Today btw is the official day commemorating those citizens who gave their lives, their health so-called 'liquidators' --- they were told to do a job and they did it. And if not for them the Chornobyl after-math would have been even more catastrophic.

"On Tuesday morning several European governments asked Moscow for more information but there was no response. At the same time the Soviet government was secretly approaching Sweden, West Germany and Britain for advice on putting out a graphite fire in a nuclear reactor core. It took 12 days and 10,000 tons of sand, lead, clay and boron dropped from helicopters to diminish the fire which was pouring 150 million curies of radioactivity into the air. The helicopter pilots died from radiation and a dozen giant helicopters became so radioactive that they had to be abandoned with other radioactive trucks, cars and equipment in the Zone. The Zone is a 30 kilometer (18 mile) radius circle area of about 1,000 square miles centered on Chornobyl/Pripyat emptied of 135,000 people which is now closed. Only a few elderly people have returned to live in their old homes in the radioactive Zone.

The destroyed Chornobyl Reactor No. 4 after the accident.

Some heroes have emerged from the disaster and among them are six firemen including Victor Kibenok and Volodymyr Pravyk who sacrificed their lives in fighting the 100-foot-high fire. American firefighters in New York State presented an award to the Ukrainian firemen in recognition of their courage. The American doctor Robert Gale of California operated with bone marrow transplants on 13 Chernobyl victims, most of whom apparently did not survive." (Full story)

I would also like to add the name of one of the others who later passed as a result of working with non-existent or completely inadequate protection safety gear. He and a team spent 100 days filming and documenting what was going on at the site. His name is Volodymyr Shevchenko and the film 'Chornobyl: Chronicle of Terrible Times' contains some of the most gut-wrenching video showing how workers were being transported in and out without gear. The film-makers did realize the health risks to their own lives but Shevchenko lying on a hospital bed, having received a heavy dose of radiation, wrote in his journal 'If someone said to me that had I had not gone, I would still have my lungs - I would quickly respond , 'better to be without lungs then those, many, who have no honor.'

Lucky enough to have enjoyed a relaxing and fun-filled weekend, and then on Monday or so, you realize that you have forgotten the events of the week prior. Do you want to quickly catch up? Or keep track of how many days it has been since the Sept. 30th elections?

Well, hop on over to the publications page where a full day by day description is provided in a concise, english lang. edition called "Ukraine in Focus".

Russian and Ukrainian language editions are also available.

"On Saturday, Nov. 24, 2007, Ukraine will mark the 75th anniversary of the terrible famine of 1932-33 in which millions of Soviet citizens perished. But this mass starvation was no act of nature: it was engineered by Stalin and Soviet authorities to force stubborn peasants to give up their privately held plots of land and join collective farms. ...

Estimates of the number of people who perished in Holodomor differ, but there is no doubt the death toll was horrific. ...

Authorities set production quotas for each village. But these quotas generally exceeded crop yields and in village after village, when farmers failed to meet their targets, all their food was confiscated.

Residents were prohibited to leave their homes — effectively condemning them to starvation." (Great Famine Anniversary in Ukraine)

(BBC News Ukraine Remembers Famine Horror) (RFE/RL Ukraine Marks Famine Anniversary Amid Denials) (AFP Ukraine Commemorates 75th Anniversary of Great Famine 1932-33) (sda/afp/baz Ukraine gedenkt des 75. Jahrestages der Hungerkatastrophe) (Le Matin L'Ukraine marque le 75e anniversaire) (Univision Ucrania observa aniversario de hambruna estalinista) (ATS Ucraina: 75/0 grande fame; Iushenko, comunismo come nazismo) 

President Yushchenko's Light a Candle campaign, in english and in ukrainian.  (and televised address to nation on November 23rd, in ukr video) (statement regarding Holodomor by Tymoshenko)

"Ukraine Remembers the Hoodomor" at Ukrainiana. And 'Holodomor Gedenktag" at Mein Kiew blog.

Channel 5 video and report. Minute of silence for the victims video. Channel 5 people who lived through Holodomor report and video. Channel 5 archives hundreds of thousands cases against Ukrainian villagers. 1+1 Ukraine remembers Holodomor report and videos. NTN in Symy unveiled a Holodomor memorial report and video. Holodomor remembrances in Odessa, Western Ukraine, Warsaw, Brussels, London.

Вічна пам'ять. Eternal remembrance.

[except for no comments from Party of Regions nor from Yanukovych]

Worthwhile reading is the latest entry in the Taras Kuzio blog which in english and ukrainian, covers the recent events in regards to Pliushch/(Plyushch) and the Speaker of the Parliament position.

BYT and OU-PSD united against a deputy in Zhytomyr oblast, Irene Sinyavskoy, for basicly doing a lousy job. In Zhytomyr btw five people have died from freezing to death.

Eurasian group which vandalized Mt. Hoverla are at it again, this time in Moscow protesting and vandalizing the Holodomor exhibit about the millions who died from forced starvation 1932-33 in Ukraine. They entered into the cultural center and started kinocking over the exhibit stands. Three youths were turned over to the Russian police by security guards. Ukraine has filed a protest with the RF over the incident. (Could make some cracks about how free speech is alive and well in Russia esp. if it is anti-Ukrainian but with the new visa rules for Ukrainian citizens in Russia coming down the pipe - don't want to make any waves.)

Pres. Yushchenko is calling for people to light a candle in memorium for the many millions who passed away in the Holodomor. Yesterday was the start of the days remembering that tragedy in Ukrainian history. Oksana Bilozir has a new music clip called, "Candle" (hat tip to elmer for video link) about the tragedy which was shown as part of yesterday's ceremonies in Kyiv. Nov. 24  is the official day commemorating the tragedy and "Light a Candle" will be observed in Ukraine and abroad. 

(and would ordinarily link to the ukr and eng versions in regards to Pres. Yushchenko's words but the eng. lang. version is not up yet - two days later.)

A hit in the Kerch Strait between a Russian and a Cambodian ship. Thankfully, although there are holes in both ships there was no further damage to the catastrophically hit area.

Web site for children's Ombudsman opened on the official site for Vinnytsia city. (Could not locate on the site but could be that simply could not find it.) Today, also is "Student's Day" in Ukraine.

Yesterday there was a bomb scare at Kyiv's main train terminus but none was located.

"Міський голова Донецька Олександр Лук’янченко заявляє, що сьогодні ”в місцевому бюджеті немає фінансових ресурсів” на зміну назв вулиць і районів, які носять імена організаторів Голодомору 1932-1933 років." (Novynar)

City head of Donetsk stated today that "in the city budget there are no financial resources" for the changing of street names and areas, which still have the names of those who organized the Holodomor Famine during 1932-1933.

It is estimated that 10 million people died in Ukraine during 'Holodomor' which was the second of three Famines, which occurred during Soviet times.

[Sidebar to this story is the report that the number of millionaires (in hryvnia) in Donetsk has increased by 36 to 98 based on those who declared their income (total of which is 45,379.] (Yep, that's it in an area in which millions of people reside less than 50,000 made income statements. What do they call this type of situation? 'tax haven'? 'tax amnesty'? 'died and gone to heaven'?)

"У Секретаріаті Президента підготовлено законопроект про встановлення кримінальної та адміністративної відповідальності за заперечення Голодомору і Голокосту" (UNIAN)

Presidential Secretariat working on proposed legislation which would establish criminal and administrative responsibility for deniers of Holodomor and Holocaust.

(Imho such legislation is way overdue) 

"The representatives of the bloc disclosed to UNIAN that 69 out of 72 parliament members, elected by the list of the OU-PSD to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine of the 6th convocation, signed the commitments.

Ivan Plyushch, Igor Kril and Vassyl Petyoika did not put their signatures." (eng) (ukr) Katerunchyk avows that all will sign the document. (Novynar) 

While former PM Yekhanurov does not want to work within Tymoshenko's Cabinet. "Брати участь у групі по інтересах або клубі популістів не збираюся. У такий спосіб в уряді Юлії Тимошенко я не буду працювати ні за яких умов. Все", сказав він." (Novynar) 

I do not plan to take part in special interest groups, or 'political clubs'. For such reasons, I will not work in Yulia Tymoshenko's government(Cabinet) under any terms. That's all, he said.

President Yushchenko continues with making personnel changes this time in SBU (Secret Sevices). (prior changes have included appointing Governors in place of those who had been elected to Parliament and Boyko to his staff.)

President Yushchenko gave Yanukovych 3 days (sent him a letter) in which to solve the problems regarding non-payment of the coal miners. 

The Kingdom of Sweden has announced its support for Ukraine's entrance into the EU. 

UNESCO passed resolution regarding Ukraine and Holodomor but no mention of word "genocide". Ohryzko of the Foreign Ministry, explains that as an educational, cultural, informational organization it has no right to make legal or judicial decisions and so cannot declare it a genocide. But UNESCO did pass resolution as remembrance of victims of Holodomor. (eng) (ukr)

"Ukraine on Saturday reburied some 2,000 people killed by the Soviet secret police before World War Two and dumped in mass graves near the capital." (Reuters)

"According to various estimates, more than 100,000 people were killed by the NKVD between 1936 and 1941 during Joseph Stalin's rule." (BBC)

    Sept. 16, 2007 will be the seven year anniversary of Gongadzhe's disappearance and as journalists cover the story yet again, the report card for President Yuschenko and the government is not good. Zerkalo Nedeli goes so far to call it as "seven years of human tragedy and political dancing on the bones”.

Today in Kyiv, The International Federation of Journalists has released a copy of its third report regarding Gongadzhe's disappearance and the finding of his beheaded body. The title of the report, "Official Obstruction is Rewarded" refers to President Yushchenko's action in presenting the Order of Prince Yaroslav the Wise award to the former general prosecutor Mikhail Potebenko. [Taras Kuzio wote about in his blog (see entry entitled "A Shameful Decision" dated Feb. 19, 2007) which brought the award ceremony to the attention of western media.]

Radio Free Europe summarizes the findings of the IFJ report as "Ukraine Lacks 'Political Will' To Solve Gongadze Case" which basicly means that the case will not be closed anytime soon.

I remember this dance from 1994

On Aug 21, Ukrainian authorities found the bullet-ridden body of the top anti-organized crime official in Donetsk, Roman Yerokhin, just a week before erecting a new monument to Vyacheslav Chornovil, nationalist politician (who died sandwiched between long-haul trucks a few months before the presidential election in which he was to run). So while Yushchenko tries to convince Ukrainians he's going to launch a new inquiry into Chornovil's murder, another skeleton walks to the end of the line. (Foreign Notes has been all over this case, describing: Lutsenko's typically vague statement that "we know he's a Donetsk businessman", his claim that the murders have been detained, the small likelihood those that orderd the hit will be prosecuted by the do-nothing PG Medvedko, and more of the usual you-know-who ridiculousness Ukrainian news agencies are always panning off as news rather than gossip (this time that the person who ordered the hit was a BYUT deputy whose name begins with "Sh"). As soon as I get my hands on a picture of the guy, I'll get him up on Skeletons.

In industrial news: as expected, the Yanukovych Cabinet is also putting a stop to any further privatization of Ukrainian state assets like the hugely successful Krivoryzhstal (re-)privatization. Meanwhile the actual campaign promises Yanukovych and his party made have all gotten sidelined, as I pointed out a few weeks ago, and Tymoshenko mocked him for yesterday.

The only solid blow against corruption has landed, though. It fell on Pavlo Lazarenko, former PM, who was convicted of money laundering and sentenced to nine years in prison. Oh... wait, Lazarenko was convicted in the US. Pretty sad for Ukraine that the only bandit to go to prison was living abroad. On the other hand, I'm proud of my country for nailing the bastard. My congratulation to the US judicial branch and San Francisco circuit court in specific.

"Grand Coalition" Not Yet Finalized

So, pretty much a full return to the Kuchma era. But don't worry, says Yushchenko, if the ministers in the Cabinet get out of line I'll make sure they resign. What power he's going to use to do this is unclear, but not nearly as unclear as how he plans to fulfil his promise that all state money be used "for the benefit of the poor, social programs, the army, in other words – for the welfare of Ukraine". Let me get this straight: he can't keep his own party in line, he couldn't stop his opponent from getting into power, but now we're supposed to believe he's got the power to coerce the Party of Regions into becoming a philanthropic government?

Yushchenko's party, meanwhile, seems to be attempting to make the coalition with PoR-Socialists-Communists as unproductive as the Orange coalition. In fact, the coalition is apparently still under discussion. Maybe this is supposed to be a sneaky way to cut down on corruption: drag out discussions so long that no one can get anything done (For a prediction of what the final outcome will look like, I recommend the Kyiv Post's article on Kyiv politics as a possible foreshadowing).

Natural Gas Prices Not Finalized, Either

Regional governments will get a say in the planning of the 2007 budget, promised Yanukovych. Ukraine won't steal any gas this winter, he also promised, but he wouldn't speculate on what price the country is going to be paying (though hinting it might rise "a little" due to world price trends). First Vice PM Azarov was less optimistic, saying the price won't be less than $135/1000cu m.

Hi all. I feel I must observe the Chornobyl twenty-year anniversary here on the blog, though I have very little to add on the subject. Here is an AP article on the debate about the number of victims. Here is another, just your basic commemoration piece. My steadily aging tour piece (written last November, about a trip the year before) is still up.

If you're looking for further reading on the subject, Neeka recommends Svetlana Alexievich's Voices of Chernobyl, recently translated into English.

The Coalition Haggling

In the last two posts, I talked about the haggling between NSNU and BYT over the coalition. Well, it's still going on. Tymoshenko wanted Yushchenko to come in and provide some guidance (and in the process make his views plain) but he rebuffed her. What with Orthodox Easter last Sunday, there was time for little else to happen. The bickering goes on, but ITAR-TASS, for one, points out that at least the coalition hasn't been impregnated.

The Commonwealth of Independent States

The most recent CIS conference seems to have failed. Talks have been failing for a while now, because the first item on the agenda has been the creation of a Common Economic Space (confusingly CES). Russia and Belarus have wanted an economic union from the CES, Ukraine wants nothing more than a free trade area, in order not to jeopardize its EU aspirations. The conflict has never been resolved, and the CIS has done little, but it's failure has not generally been to the point where Ukraine's Foreign Minister and representative calls it: "not a normal international organization," "unresponsive to situations that are most sensitive to member states," "useless," and "has no future."

Gas and Oil

Big big news here: Izvestia, a Russian newspaper owned by Gazprom just outed its co-owners of RosUkrEnergo. What they have said is that Dmitriy Firtash owns 90% and Ivan Fursin 10% of Centragas, the company holding a 50% share of RosUkrEnergo (Gazprom has the other 50%). Raiffaisen Bank, based out of Austria, was holding the shares but refused to reveal who owned them. When Izvestia came out with the news, they confirmed it.

This is surprising to me. I am at a loss to understand why Gazprom would choose to reveal these investors now. I mean, I'm thrilled, the more transparency the better, so I'm certainly happy they did. But Russia has given every indication it wants the current agreement to stand. So why then would they think this would help prevent that? Perhaps they hoped the fact that Firtash and Fursin are Ukrainian would counter some allegations that the company was a Russian front? If anyone out there has another theory, I'm all ears.

Some background: Firtash had been suspected of being one of the owners for a while, as he had been tied to the precursor to RosUkrEnergo, EuralTransGas. (sub only Kyiv Post, for more read this RFE-RL article)

Another tiny, and as yet little reported bit of news. A mystery oil and gas company called Vanko International (incorporated in the US), has won a tender to develop a gas deposit in the Ukrainian part of the Black Sea. It beat Shell and ExxonMobile for the tender. Man I hate transparency-stifling mystery companies. I hope some enterprising Ukrainian journalists take a closer look at this tender and ferret out more information.

An Easter Greeting

Easter GreetingsKristos Voskres, everyone! Lesya and were spending quality time with the family, and hope y'all were able to, too. To celebrate, here are some of our pictures from the Carpathians.

Officially today has been declared "Freedom Day" by Yushchenko, to celebrate the beginning of the Orange Revolution. On November 21, 2004, the second round of the Ukrainian election was held, and on November 22, when it became clear than Yanukovych and pals had stolen it, people started taking to the streets.

The Orange Revolution was certainly successful in that the fraudulent result was overturned, and in the rerun the guy who should have won Round 2 finally got his win.

However, a number of my Ukrainian friends have been depressed recently about Yushchenko firing Tymoshenko, the "Memorandum of Understanding" with Yanukovych, the rising cost of everything (having to do with Ukraine's current economic difficulties), and the recent poll figures suggesting that Regions of Ukraine might get enough votes to put Yanukovych in as newly-empowered Prime Minister in March 2006. "What did we (and a third of the nation) have the Orange Revolution for?" they ask.

This is what.

Things to Celebrate on Orange Day

1. Democratic Choice: As I will say a million times if I have to - throughout the Orange Revolution, precedent was more important than President. The results on November 22 were very straightforward, Yushchenko had won more of the votes, and the results had been falsified. There had been numerous violations of election law on polling day against Yushchenko, during a process even more suspect than the October vote. Ukrainians had been cheated.
   
   Maybe Yanukovych and the Party of Regions will win big in March. He did get 44% of the electoral vote in round three of the presidential election, so somebody was voting for him. But if his party does win in March, it will be based on votes, not administrative influence. In contrast, the SDPU(o) is hated by the people; it won't be able to win anyway.
   
   This doesn't mean that Ukrainians will necessarily have pleasant choices to make when elections roll around, but they can trust that they live in a democracy, and the results will reflect their vote. If Yanukovych had won based on fraud, then their democratic powers would have been strongly curtailed.
   
   
2. Actual Freedom of Speech: There are no more temnyky. You hear again and again, but I want to remind us what it was like before all these changes.
   
   According to the OSCE: in the period they covered, about 43% of news was covered in such a similar manner across numerous sources that they believed those sources could only have been given the same guidelines to follow. This was verified by reporters standing up on Independence Square to renounce the temnyky guidelines they had been following. All major media sources were pro-government, with the exception of Channel 5, which had been shut down, or threatened with being shut down, three times over the course of the year. When they were shut down in October, the month of the first round of the election, they went on hunger strike to protest and gain enough attention to get put back on. They only made it back on the air just before the election.
   
   My favorite fact from the OSCE, though, is its breakdown of the coverage on UT1, Ukraine's public television station, the equivalent of PBS or the BBC. That station gave 64% of its political and election prime time coverage to Yanukovych, and portrayed him positively or neutral 99% of the time. Yushchenko got 21% of its time, and 46% positive or neutral coverage. Some regional sources were even worse, with Zaporizhzhya state TV giving Yanu 100% of its coverage, and 100% either positive or neutral.
   
   Now you have news stations that hate Yushchenko and Tymoshenko, ones that love them, and ones that are more measured in their attitudes; there are stations all over the map.
   
   
3. Reduced Corruption: The Tymoshenko and Yushchenko people have slung accusations of corruption against one another, and invoked the Orange Revolution in the process. The government still can't carry out a high-profile court case in a respectable manner. And Poroshenko isn't out yet, despite voter opinion. The situation is still loads better than in 2004.
   
   The rules and regulations governing entrepreneurial ventures have been drastically simplified. Tax dodging has shrunk considerably. The corrupt traffic police are gone. And when voters protested against poor regional officials, those officials generally didn't keep their jobs. Even Poroshenko has been demoted in the NSNU party (thanks for the link, LEvko!). He may not be out, but he's down.
   
   Modest progress? Of course, very modest. But compare: Under Kuchma in 1998, Lazarenko was Prime Minister despite being the most hated man in the nation. He stole millions from the economy using his position during the negotiation of oil deals with Russia to do it. How has Poroshenko thusfar been able to use his position for personal advantage? Possibly something, but nobody really knows, and he's out of the government.
   
   Kuchma gave away Krivoryzhstal to his son-in-law. The windfall money from the resale may not all go to voters, but it will certainly be better for the nation than the original sale. Kuchma was a president who based his government in corruption. Yanukovych was his successor, and gave no indication he would change that behavior until he lost the election. Now the way he's trying to get back into politics is by claiming he will fight the corruption in the current administration.
   
   Corruption is on the agenda in a way in never was under Kuchma, and would not have been without the Orange Revolution.

These three items have lead to another benefit Ukrainians will get from the Orange Revolution.

A Parliamentary Election Based on Parties and Platforms

In 1994 there were dozens of possible parties to choose from, most of which appeared just before the election. In 1998, same problem, in 2002, same problem. Just before each election, a new group of deputies would come up with a new name for themselves and go to voters, who would have no idea what their underlying ideology would be. Were they liberal? conservative? free-market? state-control?

No one would be able to tell a thing about them, except, perhaps, for the sadly short-lived "Beer Lovers' Party". But in this Parliamentary election Ukrainians can count on access to a wider range of media sources, providing better information on candidates, with parties competing for their votes whose voting record they can see. And when they vote, they can be much more sure that it will be their votes that determine the winners.

That's worth celebrating.

For my part in the celebration, here's that old Yanukovych Egg Incident video. (6mb avi)

[Taras Kuzio has a list of accomplishments in the Eurasia Daily Monitor (problem areas coming tomorrow). I referenced his when making mine.]

NY Times/Duranty Protest - Friday, November 18, 2005 –12:00 noon –opposite the NY Times building - 229 West 43rd Street between 7th and 8th in Manhattan. Organizer: United Ukrainian American Organizations of Greater New York.

UPDATE: Gareth Jones who snuck into Ukraine to refute Duranty will be represented at the rally by Nigel Colley, the great nephew. He and his mother Siriol, the niece of Gareth Jones, have been petitioning the New York Times to surrender the Pulitzer Plaque and they hope this will be done on Friday.