Secession of eastern Ukraine? Will Yanuk be able to run for president of Russia?

And what if Tatarstan secedes from Russia? Or Siberia? Or Kaliningrad? Doesn't the Russian Federation consist of 83 federal subjects? Wasn't Moscow founded by Kyiv?

People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.

Reuters story points out "Putin vows support for NATO hopeful Georgia's rebels" and no comment was made re: Crimea/Krym but 'it is understood'.
http://www.reuters.com/article/asiaCrisis/idUSL03283037

And very much in line with Zhirinovsky's commentary on 1+1, as well as on April 4th, the rebel leaders were on route to Moscow.

Taras - please, get real. You know it is "do as we say and not, do as we do". Chechnya tried for secession and independence and what of it? Tibet is right now trying for independence from China ... where is the intl community? going to the Olympics, that's where.

And as u r aware, yes, there are in Ukraine people who would heed the call to secede, just as there are those who would not mind seeing them go, while the majority if remain silent, will have their wishes swept to the side.

Even if there is no secession, and Ukraine is kept out of Nato it is a major win for Putin as well as if the east and the south are able to obtain greater autonomy and a loosening of the grip from Kyiv (decentralization.)

"Ukraine’s and Georgia’s membership in NATO (even in a long-term prospect) will not just upset the strategic balance in the world and the region but affect Russian geopolitical interests. The Russians think that this will push them out of those post-Soviet countries, which they traditionally consider their historic sphere of influence. In this case, Kyiv should expect tough economical, political and informational pressure from the Russian side. Just days before the summit, the Russian diplomats said that Russia had developed a plan of action in case Ukraine and Georgia join the MAP. We can now conjecture what trump cards the Kremlin has up its sleeve to hamper Ukraine’s joining the MAP.

Experts assume that during the next one to two months, Moscow will put political-psychological pressure upon Ukrainian authorities and business--and not only with the help of verbal announcements. For quite a long time now, Moscow has been warning us about the serious consequences of a cutback in Russian-Ukrainian cooperation in the military-industrial sphere. Additionally, it is obvious that the Kremlin will use the pro-Russian politicians and the hierarchs of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of Moscow Patriarchate to conduct active anti-NATO propaganda and hold mass protest activities in our country. Besides, the Russians will carry out a violent anti-NATO campaign in Ukrainian mass media.

The postponed decision on Ukraine joining the MAP is not good also because in a medium-term prospect, the Russians might use all their means and reserves (including the Black Sea fleet of the Russian Federation) to destabilize the situation in Ukraine and provoke new political crises. This will demonstrate to NATO that our country is not ready to work on NATO membership programs.

It looks like Russia won’t leave Ukraine alone until Ukraine becomes a NATO member. And we will be able to resist this pressure only if all Ukrainian political forces join their efforts in order to protect national interests and accept the principals of the civilized world as has happened with our Western neighbors."
"Object of Exchange"
http://www.mw.ua/1000/1550/62625/

If separatism gained momentum in Russia, the international community’s response would be largely irrelevant.

Getting Chechnya back proved extremely costly, and the international community had limited leverage over either side of the conflict.

Even if Russia succeeded in rocking the boat in Ukraine or Georgia, it would still risk having its chickens coming home to roost. The blowback potential of exporting Russian irredentism should not be underestimated by the exporter.

How does secession factor into Ukrainian oligarchs’ corporate strategies? It would decimate the market value of their possessions. Is there an oligarch who would prefer being a small fry in Moscow to being a big fish in Kyiv? I don’t see any.

We had some politicians who tried to explore the separatist avenue during the Orange Revolution, but their ranks haven’t increased.

"We had some politicians who tried to explore the separatist avenue during the Orange Revolution, but their ranks haven’t increased."

You hit the nail on the head when u wrote the following - "Is there an oligarch who would prefer being a small fry in Moscow to being a big fish in Kyiv?"

True, very true. Piranhas and sharks live in very different bio-systems for just such a reason. Don't need the competition and strife. But what oligarchs will NOT stand for is a loss of power and influence (this has be detrimental to their bottom line.)

But babushka on the other hand and her grandson/daughter, what do they have to lose? Taras, there are enough people to make RU's 'commentary' a real threat esp. when backed with mighty 'petro-dollars'.

Reality is that yes, everyone knows which way the wind is blowing but why go quietly or make it easy for UA?

"The blowback potential of exporting Russian irredentism should not be underestimated by the exporter"

Oh yeah? Don't see any blowback from all those gas exports. In fact "NATO softened the blow by promising eventual membership and saying the MAP issue will be addressed again later this year. Will anything change when NATO foreign ministers reopen the debate in December? Not unless Russia runs out of gas in eight months -- which, of course, is not going to happen."

http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2008/04/F1531098-453D-4C0F-BB0B-C158FA5E7B0B.html