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Shovels and Determination

What Ukrainians will need to find someone to vote for if new elections are held

It's again been over two weeks since my last post. For that I apologize to readers again. That's what I get for trying to study full time and work full time, I guess.

And while I've been learning the intricacies of Japanese grammar, the Ukrainian constitutional court has been ruling whether Yushchenko can dismiss Parliament and if new elections will be held. Ukrainian politicians have spent the time talking almost twice as much as usual, if that can be imagined.

Not to each other of course.

Ready for Anything Except Negotiation

To give you a bit of foreshadowing, a compromise may be in the offing between Yushchenko and Yanukovych (more later in the entry). But if so, it comes after truly astounding displays of irresponsibility.

Those of us who are married probably know how one should handle disagreements with our spouses. You meet with the person and both express what the issue is for you in non-emotional terms, and then try to work out a reasonable compromise.

Ukrainian politicians have never been as close as loved ones, in fact, they generally have about the same amount of affection for each other as piranhas. With no love to betray, they should logically be immune to any emotional hurt caused by one another, and thus the process of rational compromise should be that much easier for them. After all, even the toothy fish manage to reach some sort of agreement whereby they don't annihilate one another.

Instead, Yanukovych has been whining to PACE about Yushchenko, Yushchenko has been whining to the EU about Yanukovych. And Tymoshenko has been whining to the entire world... about Russia.

As Zerkalo Nedeli aptly put it:

The quest for international support started on the very first day of the confrontation, which some in the mass media have called Ukraine’s most serious political crisis since the Orange Revolution. By appealing to the international community so actively and loudly, the political leaders of both the pro-government coalition and the opposition have demonstrated their helplessness, narrow-mindedness, and inability to search for rational and acceptable solutions.

And how has the world reacted? About like you should expect a neighbor to react if you decided to unburden yourself about all your spouse's problems to them.  They quite reasonably refuse to take sides and give the standard answer that the politicians should work out their difficulties without violence. What were these three expecting?

But in the meantime, Yanukovych has said Yushchenko and his aids will be "carried out on pitchforks" for calling new elections, both he and Yushchenko have accused each other of coups. Tymoshenko snaked the price for least helpful from both of them, though, by delivering a laundry list of Russia's problems to Foreign Affairs which includes a comparison to Nazi Germany. 

Ok, so accepting that Russia does have significant problems. (One of the best pieces on these events so far, as is often the case, comes from Ann Appelbaum, and the conclusion is basically that the only good thing that can be said of what is going on in Ukraine is that as messy as it is, it's still loads better than in Russia)

However, I've had a going rule here at Orange Ukraine that the first time you mention someone you dislike and "Nazi" in the same sentence publicly, you lose 50% of any respect I have for you to date instantaneously. What in the name of all things holy is Tymoshenko doing giving Russia a public dressing down at a time like this? It is as if she's so unwilling to even speak to anyone else in the government she's taken to sulking in a corner and pointing out everyone else's flaws. Or perhaps she watched Putin's noteworthy attempt to reprimand Western European governments and, disregarding how obviously it flopped, has decided that looks like a good idea.

After Running Out of People to Whine To

Now, however, despite the lack of much negotiating going on, Yushchenko and Yanukovych may be edging towards a compromise. Yushchenko has always been a compromiser, though he doesn't generally have the consistency or resolve to make his behavior a virtue, so there is a good chance that some form of compromise will eventually be reached.

It's a toss up if this is progress or not. Having to choose from this lot of politicians again in a new election is not something I should in conscience wish on Ukrainians, but any time in which they are called upon to make the decisions for the country is another time when they are given political power. From the morass, also, Vitrenko, as a particularly oily kind of much, may float to the top again. Frankly, the Socialists may be preferrable to that. But again, the other body being called upon to choose here is the Constitutional Court, and if that body were forced to make an actual decision for a change, it would be some progress. Hard to tell what the best option is here.

All in all, it makes Ukrainians willingness to even consider new elections a remarkable display of civic duty. Either that or a new and understandable desire to vote "against all".

Posted on Monday, April 23, 2007 at 05:45AM by Registered CommenterDan McMinn | Comments124 Comments

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Reader Comments (124)

"What in the name of all things holy is Tymoshenko doing giving Russia a public dressing down at a time like this?"


Well, Dan, I disagree with you on 2 points.

1) Yushchenko and Yanukovych have indeed been talking to each other. Many, many times. And Yushchenko's point has been that in the past, mechanisms did not exist for people to come together and try to hash things out.

And who knows how many other phone calls are being made in the background....

True, there has been a media blitz by all the politicians into Western media, including the Financial Times. Nevertheless, Yushchenko and Yanukovych have indded been meeting and talking.

And there have been several offers of compromise, publicly made.


2) Now, to the second point. Obviously, Yulia had a lot of help in writing the article in Foreign Affairs. I doubt very much that she knew anything about Kenan's "long telegram," for example.

To answer your question, why now? Because Russia is the 9,000,000 pound gorilla, full of vile and hot air, that still haunts Ukrainian politics and life in general.

And because that gorilla needs to be deflated once and for all.

And because she is right.

And because it needed to be done.


Yushchenko took a slam at Russia in his Easter speech as well - "a 'guided' democracy, with a stacked deck for cheating and theatrical appurtenances - is not for us."

He was very clearly talking about Russia's "guided" or "managed" democracy.


Even though Yanukovych now uses nice sound bites in the Financial Times, there are still code words:

"Ukraine (I) am not against NATO - just that there has been no referendum."

"Ukraine (I) am not against joining the EU - just not so fast."

Those are code words made because the Russian gorilla is still in Yanuk's head.

Why do you think that Luhansk Teplovoz was just sold to a Russian bidder in a rigged bid?

Why do you think that a delegation from the Russian Duma showed up in Ukraine's Rada, even though the Rada has been dismissed??????!!!!!


Do you know of any foreign parliamentary members that have ever been invited to sit in on a session of British Parliament, or the US Congress, whether dismissed or not??????


Kurochkin, the thug who was just killed by a sniper in Kyiv, was a fund-raiser from Russia for Yanuk and company.

And, I disagree with you also about the Nazi comment. Putin and his government are indeed acting like the Gestapo.

Kasparov's lawyer was just arrested. For what?

9,000 police - 2,000 protesters.

For what? According to Ivanov - in order not to disrupt traffic!


Russia is a snake, and it acts like a snake.

The Russians LIE. And they have taught others how to LIE.

And Ukraine does not need any snakes in its house.

So - good for Tymoshenko, good for Yushchenko, and good for Lutsenko.
April 23, 2007 | Unregistered Commenterelmer
Just to clarify, Dan.

Russia has always been chauvinistic towards Ukraine, and has regarded Ukraine as "Little Russia." Those people still view Ukraine as their little playground, their little domain.

Up till now, Russia, through Putin and others, has inserted itself very publicly into Ukrainian politics, including vile animals like Zhirinovsky going to Crimea to deliberately stir up trouble for Ukraine.

Elsewhere, like in Transdniester and Ossetia, Russia has done more than talk .....


Now that Tymoshenko has stood up for Ukraine, and turned the tables on Russia - I don't see any basis for criticizing her.
April 23, 2007 | Unregistered Commenterelmer
I agree that the usual rule against bringing up Nazis might not be play for describing the gov't of Russia...

Of course, compromises/accomodations will eventually be needed to be made with Russia, but the gravity of the situation in Ukraine needs to be framed and I think the Ukrainians have a legit basis for using the "nazi" frame for Russia and its servants in their country...

dlw
April 23, 2007 | Unregistered Commenterdlw
Taras K writes on Yulia's article.
http://blog.taraskuzio.net/2007/04/23/tymoshenko-wants-to-contain-russia/

Yulia is dramatically opposing Russia's neo-imperialism, particularly in its energy policies. She however has avoided the NATO question and so she is picking her battles and not trying to incite a cold war.

Taras' comments about earlier drafts and alternative titles do show that there was concern over the perceived belligerence but it sounds like he is okay with it. If Putin wants to make critical remarks like he did in Munich in March then Russia cannot cry "cold war mongering" when others are similarly critical of Russia.

dlw
April 23, 2007 | Unregistered Commenterdlw
Now that we're started on Nazis, I've had fun reading the wikipedia article for "fascism" and trying to identify which characteristic elements of fascism are present in Russia, and which are absent. An excerpt from the first paragraph:

"the following elements are usually seen as its integral parts: nationalism, authoritarianism, militarism, corporatism, collectivism, totalitarianism, anti-communism, and opposition to economic and political liberalism."

There's a lot of nationalist and/or anti-nationalist rhetoric floating around Russia these days... seems like it's an issue, anyway. The one that really sticks in my mind is corporatism.
April 23, 2007 | Unregistered CommenterR. Smith
Well, it seems that in Ukraine the state is by no means the measure of all things, as in the last week 22.6 thousand mass measures were taken by more than 20% of the population.
http://www.unian.net/eng/news/news-193116.html

I think opposition to political and economic liberalism is also a biggy with Russia, as there "diversification" is still primarily targeted to keep the hyper-elites completely in power and expanding in influence...
dlw
April 23, 2007 | Unregistered Commenterdlw
Did somebody mention Molotov-Ribbentrop?


http://cybercossack.com/?p=622
April 23, 2007 | Unregistered Commenterblackminorcapullets
*****************D*A*N************!!!!!!!!!
Woohoo! Hurrah! Cheers!
You are a very welcome 'site' for sore eyes!

Welcome back! Bienvenue! Willkommen! etc. And I will ALWAYS forgive you anything inc. slipping off to travel, learn a foreign lang. and live life to the fullest! GO DAN!

-----------------

AND I AGREE WITH DAN - as do the Europeans who want this crisis settled and not blown up! Which is what that ghost-written piece tried to do. And it makes no sense at all = to fight on two fronts = right now PoR/SPU/CPU are MUCH MORE of a hazard than Russian Fed. which has its own problemas.

Taking slam yes, the President did but there is a way to do so in the lang. of intl diplomacy which makes the point very clear but does not conflagurate. Yulia is much more used to the banging on the tabletop approach to make a point - which is NOT needed - this is where subtlety rules.

----------------
Kuzio is entitled to his opinion as I am entitled to mine and I disagree with him. Yulia stepped out of line - as for me primacy is UKRAINE and the UKRAINIAN people. And right now - deal with PoR/CPU/SPU! Actually who should have cautioned Russian Fed. was Europe and they completely dropped the ball - completely! for which yes, they should be slammed. Let's see what they do regarding Kosovo.

THE MORE TIME THIS CRISIS DRAGS ON THE MORE UKRAINIAN INDUSTRIES, STATE FUND, ETC. IS BEING 'RAPED' AND PILLAGED. Nothing will be left and the money will all be gone out of the country!

NEGATIVE TAX REVENUE? Argh!
April 24, 2007 | Unregistered CommenterIIU
OK, IIU, we disagree - which, as between us, is fine.

Here's where we disagree -

1) The stealing has been occurring all along, regardless of the current so-called crisis, and with 300 or 450 deputies it would have intensified, but there would have been worse consequences.

Like backsliding on freedom of speech, etc.

So it really makes no difference as to whether the sharks continue fighting among themselves.

Except for one thing.

All of the actions of a dissovled zRada are not, and cannot be legal.

So all of the stealing that occurs during this time period can be undone.

Whereas, with a 450 majority - pechatka, and end of story.

2) Russia has been banging Ukraine over the head constantly, and you know that there are people inside Ukraine, even in the government, whose loyalties are to Ukraine and not Russia.

That included, as you remember, making a pornographic movie about Yulia.

And that included, as you remember, Zvirinovsky publicly stating that Condi Rice needed to be taken to the barracks by a company of soldiers in order to deal with her supposed sexual frustration, which, according to him, is the cause of her statements about Russia's bad behavior.

I can provide the link, if you like, to Zvirinovksy's statements.


So Yulia's speech put an end to that.

It doesn't prolong anything, and it certainly does not create anything new in the "fight" between Ukraine and Russia.

Yulia standing up for Ukraine, in order to call a spade a spade, as far as Russia is concerned, is never out of line.

In other words, Ukrainians standing up for themselves, and getting the Russian monkey off their backs, is never out of line.


3) The Europeans are not going to inflame this situation, and they are right

- this is a matter that needs to be settled in Ukraine, by Ukrainians.

Which is why I find it funny that the first thing that Yanuk and his boys did is to look for legitimacy from the Austrian government, and from elsewhere in Europe.


IIU, it's not the first time that money has been taken out of the country - Lazarenko, for example, as you know.


So I say - I don't see any reason to continue to tiptoe around a bunch of thugs in Russia.

Russia is a snake.

And good for Yulia, and for Yushchenko, and for Lutsenko, for standing up for Ukraine,
April 24, 2007 | Unregistered Commenterelmer
One more thing, IIU -

As you know, the Yanuky, with the help of Manafort and his American PR firm, have been trying to change their image.

That includes putting out propaganda about how they have already improved life for Ukrainians.

Comment from Ukrainian forum on Ukrainian Pravda.

"Yanuk claims he has improved life already for Ukrainians. We want to show him how - in the next elections."
April 24, 2007 | Unregistered Commenterelmer
I wd add that slamming Russia is import for framing the ongoing conflict rightly in the minds of the West and the world. Even if we are mainly neutral, we can be aggressively neutral and knowing that such "neutrality" is needed to ensure a balance of power that does not tip towards strong Russian influence or a Russia-like system is important motivation.

Putin's slam of the US's imperialistic actions were unspun easily, in large part because they reeked of hypocripsy. I don't think the same can be said for Timo's article and, as Kuzio pointed out, she did still show some discretion. I don't think her position of conflict vis-a-vis with Russia and those serving Russian interests changed dramatically. They opposed her before, now maybe they'll fear her more...

dlw
dlw
April 24, 2007 | Unregistered Commenterdlw
dlw - I agree.


Something else -

They're dropping like flies over at the Constitutional Court.

First, a PR deputy claims "bad health" in order to excuse himself.

Now, 2 ministers want to be excused from having to sit through the hearings due to "work.

The Constitutional Court can act only on the complainst of members of the zRada, or ministers, and certain other persons.

But it looks like the people who filed the complaints about the President's decree are not willing to sit through the hearings in the Court.

http://www.ukranews.com/eng/article/39319.html

Also, Lutsenko's passport has not been returned to him.

His Komsomol card - yes. But his passport - no.

This is the "rule of law"?!!!!!!!???


http://www.ukranews.com/eng/article/39300.html



April 24, 2007 | Unregistered Commenterelmer
I like Taras' wisdom of spinning Timo's article as not extremely anti-Russian or cold war-mongering. It probably wasn't an easy call to make at the time and it probably is for the best if we let it go and forge ahead on other stuff rather than debate its wisdom at length. I agree that resolving the crisis favorably for political reforms is right now far more import for Ukraine than standing up to Russia. IIU is right that it shd be the EU(and the US), not Ukraine, who calls Russia to task for its policies.
dlw
April 24, 2007 | Unregistered Commenterdlw
a bit off topic, but not completely.

This article talks about why the World Bank is incapable of fostering autonomous development within countries...

http://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue33/Ellerman33.htm

It indirectly I believe gets at what Ukraine shd want, apart from Russia, EU and the US!
dlw
April 24, 2007 | Unregistered Commenterdlw
It seems signs of compromise are in the air.
http://www.jamestown.org/publications_details.php?volume_id=420&issue_id=4082&article_id=2372119

Kudos to PACE for being peace-makers!

Though, according to Levko, the wealthier members of the parties also likely may have had a hand in forcing compromise.
http://foreignnotes.blogspot.com/2007/04/big-business-to-solve-crisis.html

But one of the sticking points for the NU in the prior link is an unwillingness to admit that Yusch's decree holds for now. IOW, they're not going to give over what they've done and taken in the past month without a fight. It's all contraband to be put on the bargaining table, it seems...

dlw
April 24, 2007 | Unregistered Commenterdlw
elmer and dlw -

a) the stealing will be perfectly legal should the CC rule that the Pres. decree dissolving Parliament was unconstitutional which could very well happen not only for the 'weakness' of the Pres. case but also because of people like Stanik and their wealthy mamashas!

b) yes it does create something new as it gives more grist to the mill that the gas prices should be higher for Ukraine. major grist indeed. Also she is an opposition leader - let her go slammin her opposition and let the Pres. do his thing and give the RU Fed. the what for as he should and has. Working to steal his 'thunder' is undermining his authority plain and simple.

c) let Russians deal with Russia. And the people will rise up but if ANYONE is confronted they will defend. Again this is why I liked Lutsenko's approach - meet the people where they are at and tell the truth.

d) propaganda is certainly what has and is constantly spewed to voters in East Ukraine and the Western countries got a taste of the propaganda and rhetoric. good for them.

dlw - u said it urself when u called it spin. enuff said.

On this - yes, elmer and dlw - we disagree which is fine and we shall see how it all works out. We will either rejoice or mourn together. All in good company.

And elmer u will always be 2 cool 4 words in my book!
April 24, 2007 | Unregistered CommenterIIU
c) let Russians deal with Russia.


or, as the Good Bood says:

"let the dead bury their dead."
April 25, 2007 | Unregistered Commenterelmer
Look at today's Foreign Notes.

Stanik's husband, for some unkown reason, agreed to be interiewed by Unian.

When the female reporter asks him questions about the apartments that Stanik's mother got, his retort is to ask the reporter what underwear she is wearing.

He says in the interview that he is a supporter of Kuchma, and that he spoke with Kuchma not too long ago.

This kind of, that government officials are not to be questioned, and that they are responsible or accountable to noone, is absolutely astonishing.

This guy has no concept whatsoever of democracy. He thinks he's living in a totalitarian state, on the power side, and not on the "slave" side.

In his picture, the guy looks very angry.

Of course, if I were married to a battle-axe like Stanik, I'd be angry too!!!
April 25, 2007 | Unregistered Commenterelmer
Listened to Neeka's interview on BBC.

Very nice!

Everybody in Russia blogs - and argues.

Nothing like a good argument to make one happy!
April 25, 2007 | Unregistered Commenterelmer
Clever comment from Neeka:

Yeltsin's funeral is one demonstration that Putin could not break up - too many Bushes, Clintons and Majors are around.

Very clever!!!
April 25, 2007 | Unregistered Commenterelmer

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