I repeat: there's not really a good choice, just a better one
The Party of Regions-Socialist-Communist "anti-crisis" coalition has officially been formed and acknowledged, even by BYT, and has formally nominated Yanukovych for Prime Minister. This official formation has addressed some the concerns Yushchenko voiced last week. That other procedural matters remain allows BYT and NSNU deputies to shout, but the goal of that shouting is probably no greater than stalling for time. I don't think BYT and NSNU are truly trying to win back the Socialists, (if they were you'd expect they'd spend more time on negotiation and less on decrying traitorousness). The PoR-SPU-CPU crew is thus presumably going to plod on through any necessary process. In theory, though, since everything's taken so long, Yushchenko may be able to exercise his right to disband parliament and call new elections. (again, the Zerkalo Nedeli article lays out the possibilities)
What will Yu do?So will Yushchenko do it? I don't think so. Probably his most prominent weakness has been his hesitancy to take stands, and thus I would not expect him to make such a drastic move. Yanu is even saying NSNU is about to join with the coalition, though this is probably just rhetoric. Bezsmertniy calls the possibility unlikely, and Yushchenko himself has said he is against a broad coalition. Kinakh seems to be trying to steal a beat on Yushchenko, announcing NSNU's move into the opposition even before we're sure Yushchenko is going to allow the new Cabinet to get through. [picture: Yushchenko's site]
On the other side: Tymoshenko still wants Yushchenko to dissolve the parliament, and has asked NSNU deputies to resign alongside her own and force new elections. Except these calls are coming from a distance now, because her bloc walked out of parliament. "Like that's going to stop us", answered the PoR deputies, adding that if Yanukovych is not appointed they'll "respond adequately" (intimating that they may attempt to legislate in spite of Yushchenko's actions). BYT and Pora protesters outside the Rada didn't manage to stop deputies, either.
Honestly, I don't know if I believe Tymoshenko's actually hot for new elections: according to current polls, the majority of Ukrainians would oppose them, and by other polling numbers any gains her party would make over NSNU would be more than offset by what orange parties would lose to Yanu. She may calculate she could beat Yanukovych in a new campaign with a charm offensive, but I would personally expect Ukrainians to give such a campaign only a lukewarm response.
Could Ukraine replay Yeltsin's anti-parliament offensive? Naw.
Frequent commenter WRY has repeatedly suggested in recent comments that Yushchenko might make no decision, hoping to extend the term of Yekhanurov's interim Cabinet. Should he do so, the reasoning goes, RoU will follow up on its threat to meet anyway. Then, at the end of this apocalyptic vision, Yushchenko will use the Yeltsin tactic of calling in the army to storm Parliament.
After pausing for a shudder, I thought about this possibility. Yes, the potential is there, but really, I think this is blogosphere paranoia getting the better of us. This is a man who made a career of reforming without ever getting in conflicts with top politicians. Non-confrontational is probably among the first adjectives one would use to describe the man.
This character trait has been part of the problem: if he'd been a decisive leader, the orange government might have actually followed through on prosecuting Kuchma and many of the people now topping the PoR rosters. The character trait also explains why he agreed to constitutional reform in 2004 that reduced his powers in 2006, rather than listening to Tymoshenko and others telling him he need not negotiate.
I just don't think this is a president who would take things to that extreme. Even if he tried to stall for time for Yekhanurov, I would be very surprised to see him dismiss or storm Parliament.
A Divided Parliament Weakens Both Sides
As I said in my last posting, I certainly hope Yushchenko concedes. For the most part, this is because there is no better option: new elections will mean more months of non-government, followed by an even stronger Yanukovych presence. Winning back the Socialists is probably unrealistic. Other options are mostly non-democratic.
While a PoR-SPU-CPU government will certainly be corrupt and pro-oligarch, there are at least some positive changes which don’t impinge on oligarch power, and thus they may support. Even better, one thing I forgot to mention last week was that an orange coalition would have been greatly weakened by its small majority, and disunity would have sapped much of its potential power. But the same works in reverse for PoR-SPU-CPU: weakness and disunity will inhibit major regressive moves. This suggests to me that while the country won’t likely progress, it also won’t regress greatly.
And hey, I must be dreaming because it already looks like RoU just behaved like a responsible political party. According to Ukrainska Pravda, PoR just expelled Kalashnikov for his antics (beating up a journalist, lying about it) last week. Somebody tell me what I've gotten wrong, because that looks like principled self-policing to me. In response to complaints from the media, even! Quite an improvement over PoR 2004.
Meanwhile, NSNU is still trying to eliminate the remaining difference between it and an “anti-crisis” government. Specifically, Plachkov is trying to weasel-word his way around admitting that some influence over Ukrainian pipes is being given to Russia.
Just to cheer me up, my Google Alerts threw in this breaking announcement with my political news. Things may be messy and disappointing in congress, and some western investors will probably start looking elsewhere, but at least the goth metal bands are still bullish on Ukraine.