Victory to the Fat Men
big oligarchs are back in style
[side note: First a word of apology from me: I've been visiting family on the East Coast and couldn't get online (useless T-mobile) long enough for an entry last week. And, of course, our family trip happened at the moment of complete collapse of four months of wrangling to be absent. Hopefully you were reading Foreign Notes. Now, where to begin?]
Who knew they were so friendly?The orange coalition has collapsed and the Socialists have joined the Party of Regions and the Communists [also from RFE-RL]. Moroz and his inner core stampeded over any principles they might have had to cut a deal with PoR. After a few days of podium-blocking, the PoR freed up the Rada last week. By that time, a back-room deal must have been cut, because they voted Moroz the Speakership (flanked by a Communist Vice Speaker, God help us all). Yanukovych isn't officially PM yet, but Moroz joined with the rest of the "anti-crisis coalition" to nominate him. [image: Ukrainksa Pravda]
Why did they do this? Well, they said they'd never join in a coalition with Poroshenko as PM. Except, amazingly, he dropped his candidature in response to this ultimatum. So... money and power then.
At this point I'd just like to take you back into the misty past of three weeks ago, when the Socialists made this sarcastic statement:
"The SPU faction addresses Parliament factions able to form an [orange] coalition to stop seeking profitable offices, to immediately sign a coalition agreement, to form head Parliament bodies and the government, to solve the main economic and social problems, as well as to make efforts to break the long-term deadlock in the country."
"As to the Party of Regions and Our Ukraine, for an example, it is high time to stop dissembling and finish what they began to do," stressed SPU.
Could they have committed a more blatant act of hypocricy than joining RoU themselves? No. Well, way to go, Socialists: against all odds you managed to usurp Our Ukraine as the most disgraceful member of the now-mooted orange coalition.
Testing The Buyability of Deputies
To the infinite regret of the nation, it doesn't look like we're going to get a chance to see how many PoR deputies would defect rather than stay in opposition. Instead, we will watch more fair-weather friends of orange defect (Moroz: "I think I felt a drop, didn't you feel a drop?"), followed by the intemperate-weather friends. Eventually it will be down to friends through the black tempest - years of uninterrupted opposition. And I'm going to bet it's going to be a small opposition: Moroz is already trying to entice over NUsters.
In the meantime, though, there's a circus going on in the big ring! [From Ukrainska Pravda and translated by the Ukraine List]:
It turned out that representatives of the Party of Regions took their places in the hall early in the morning [Tuesday, 7/11], because they had received information that at 8 AM the Tymoshenko Bloc and Our Ukraine would block the podium.
The "Regionals" took under their control the "Rada" system and the press gallery. They stood in friendly rows, and also organized a corridor to allow Oleksandr Moroz to reach the Speaker's place.
Our Ukraine and the Tymoshenko Bloc observed this calmly, possibly because prior to that they "sabotaged" (stashchyly) the keyboard of the computer that was used to register deputies' cards in the session hall.
Even so after a few minutes a skirmish erupted between Tymoshenko Bloc and Regional deputies beside the "Rada" system. Oleksandr Turchynov was at the epicentre.
The tussle fizzled out, and deputies moved on to a verbal slugfest. Regionals were shouting "Glory to Moroz" and "Out with Yulia (Iuliu het')." In response, Our Ukraine and the Tymoshenko Bloc were shouting "Shame on Moroz" and "Moroz is Judas!"
Yushchenko is unlikely to dissolve Parliament and start up new elections, like Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko has called for. He says he doesn't want Ukraine to regress to pre-2004 undemocratic methods, but all he's done so far is make this strongly-worded statement to the new coalition: "Just don't change any policies, please." And with that I'll leave him to his irrelevance.
It's going to be noisy for a little while yet. The next time something of significance happens, I'll comment.
Dan McMinn
in 10) The Cabinet, 11) Tymoshenko - Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko, 12) Yanukovych - Party of Regions, 13) Yushchenko - Nasha Ukrayina, 15) Communists and the Soviet Union, 16) Opposition, 23) Socialists
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Reader Comments (7)
I actually don't believe Moroz was bribed at all, except with the satisfaction of his own ambition. (I leave aside the question about whether Moroz is in principle bribable!) Just look at it from his point of view: if he could achieve a "broad coalition" and be the savior of Ukraine, who knows what might have been possible down the road.
And the broad coalition might still be possible --- if OU decides to join (of course BYuT never will).
Given the fluid nature of party alliances in Ukraine, I wonder if the best course for OU is not new elections, but working with Regions and hoping to eventually co-opt many of them through mutual support of policies designed to enhance the economy and leaving aside divisive issues such as language.
But on the other hand, would a Yanukovych PM-ship give him so much power that he could become a Ukrainian Lukashenko? If that would be the case, better perhaps to throw the dice on a new election.
But could the Oranges win a new election after their spectacular failures and disillusionments?
Is there no way out?
Like I said, Yushchenko is unlikely to call for new elections. He fired his whole Cabinet after months of inactivity last September, so he's potentially unpredictable enough to do it. It wouldn't help his party, though, and it won't help the oranges.
So probably not.
That means RoU is in the center of the new government. I don't see how they can lose by derailing any possible agreements with NATO and promoting Russian. They don't need very many OU's on their side, just a few swing votes.
So the major ideological votes I expect to go in that direction, and meanwhile, the majority of day-to-day votes will be pro-oligarch all the way. That means the Kuchma years in all their corruption, just without a President.
Who knows, maybe things could break down again and I'll have to reevaluate everything. I should probably wait until I recharge my optimism to make any more predictions.
"I actually don't believe Moroz was bribed at all, except with the satisfaction of his own ambition." - Pretty immaterial if you ask me. Power and money: they're closely wedded around here and look to be renewing their vows.
"In the Secretariat of the Ukraine president there is a plan being developed on ruining the 'red-blue' coalition/ Yesterday during the meeting of the president of Ukraine Victor Yushchenko and the leader of the Party of Regions V. Yanukovych, 'the 'Regionals' were proposed to exclude socialists and communists from coalition and the unite with 'Our Ukraine', according to 'New Region' with reference to the informed source.
As it is known, Victor Yushchenko has already required so that before appointing the new premier the Constitutional Court would be established. Per scenario, the court should acknowledge the formation of 'red-blue' coalition to be illegitimate, after that Alexander Moroz would lose his post of a speaker. In the new coalition, 'Our Ukraine' is going to be united with the Party of Regions.
The only disagreement between the Party of Regions and 'Our Ukraine' is the candidacy of a prime minister.
The members of the Party of Regions say they won't cede the candidacy of V. Yanukovych, however, in the nearest time it is quite possible for the 'white-blue' to agree to the premiership of Yuri Yekhanurov.
In that case, you are right: It will be up to OU to decide if it wants to join or have the president be the leader of the "opposition."
It need not be all bleak, however. The president has a veto. Yanukovych and Moroz can't take that away from him.
I must admit, I did not see this coming. I did not count on the Communists being part of the coalition. Is it possible that Yush and Yulia did not see it, either? If it was forseeable, then their hardball with Moroz was stupid.
I know nothing about the Communists. What exactly is their Programme? Surely if it is anything close to that of the Russian and Belarusian counterparts what can they have in common with the Big Business B*stards in PoR? Irrelevant I suppose. There is no ideology for PoR - only bribery and lining their own pockets.
It's in their usual thorough, but also (sadly) usual horrendously complex style.
Highlight on the last section, which I will deal with in a new entry tomorrow.
Matt: Short answer is that they're totally unreformed
In addition to the expected anti-privatization, and pro-state, they're also anti-NATO, anti-West (all of which is lumped as America often, dismissing Western Europe), pro-Russia (some even pro-reintegration), anti-WTO, anti-EU.
They appeal to very old people who want the Soviet Union back and the same handful of young, uninformed conspiracy theorists that contribute members to ultra-nationalist groups and anarchist groups under slightly different circumstances.