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Waiting on the Election Results

But no sign of major violations yet

The most important thing needed in this election, that it be free and fair, seems to have happened.

The CVU has so far found long lines at the polls the most significant impediment to Ukrainians exercising their right to vote. They say the polls opened without major incident, and mentioned a few generally minor problems: overstuffed boxes, a drunken polling station commission leader. Please do check out their site. There were a couple more troublesome problems in some regions: accusations of ballot stuffing and carousel voting.

No new press releases from the OSCE that I can find. I don't expect their preliminary report on the election for a few days.

The CIS election monitors criticized the continued presence of some NSNU campaign posters during the voting. (a picture of one such posteris on Neeka's Backlog) The posters are quite annoying and unfair, and should be criticized. But as with a couple drunk commission heads, it's still small beer. I can't find anything more than that from this CIS Belarus website, and don't know where else I might find it. They may be reserving further comment until later, like the OSCE.

In any case, don't set too much stock in their accusations. Their election observation mission revealed its lack of credibility when it called Yanukovych's stolen Nov 2004 vote "transparent, legal, and free," and did the same for both the 2006 and 2004 elections in Belarus. It's nice to have them around to scout out any problems they can find, but don't pay attention to their conclusions.

Expect the Bulk of the Results to Start Coming in by 3AM Ukraine Time 

Check in with the Central Election Commission for the latest results of the actual vote count. It will still be quite a while before the results are likely to get in because the polls only closed at 10pm (an admirable extension of two hours beyond the time they closed during the presidential election, certainly for the purpose of giving people to fill out enormous ballots; some heroic poll station commissions waited even longer). From what I saw with the OSCE in 2004, when the polls closed at 8pm it took until one or two AM to finish the vote count. Expect the counting to remain incomplete until around three or even four, then, (at a minimum, considering the ballots this time are much larger), then another hour or so for the regional election centers to gather up the results from individual polling stations and announce them.

That means 6am Ukrainian time, more or less. Who knows how long it will take the CEC to give the official nation-wide vote count.

Until those votes come out, you can take a look at Neeka's Backlog (Ah, the indispensable Neeka), where she has posted up some of the exit poll numbers.

Posted on Sunday, March 26, 2006 at 02:41PM by Registered CommenterDan McMinn in | Comments20 Comments

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Reader Comments (20)

Thanks for the update.

According to my math (if Kiev time is GMT+2 [GMT = Greenwich mean time]), that means the Pacific time (GMT-8) of the results should be around 8PM and midnight on the East Coast.

Should be an interesting evening - but as Iraq and now Canada (to name two) are learning, the post-election coalition forming is just as important as the voting itself. A minority gov't should be expected of some kind, hopefully Tymoshenko led.
March 26, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterJosef in America
While you're waiting for the results to come in, you can feel like you're helping keep the election honest:
http://taggi.by.ru/prikol/Prikol_pages/yanyk2.htm

Yanukovich is left over from the last round of elections, but it's still fun.
March 26, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterR. Smith
As of now according to the CEC, Yulia's in the lead!!! :-)

This is great news to hear. I presume right about now the two bad old boys are wondering if democracy is truly as messy as we Yanks say it is...
March 26, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterJosef in America
Well there you have it folks. The Orange Revolution has split the nation in half and the split happens to negate a political solution to the Parliamentary impasse. It's no surprise that the Orange Goblinoid is now a marginal minority looking for anyone willing to ally with him. By voting for Yuljka, the radical Zapadenci want Eastern blood through reprivatization. And by voting for Yanuk, the conservative Moskali want to keep their jobs by supporting Donbass, Donetsk, Lugansk oligarchy. In both cases, we are witnessing a struggle for the industial Eastern hearland of Ukraine. There is certainly an element of ethnicity, religion, and nationality at play here. But those in the end are mere coverups for property and redistribution thereof.
March 27, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterLalulu
If they go ahead and form an 'orange government' unfortunately all that I can say is that I feel sincerely sorry for the Ukrainian/ Russian people. All that these criminals have in common is their desire to confront Russia. If this fact alone is what will unite them, theis future of your country will be even worse than its present. Ignoring half of the country, and uniting to form a government only to prevent the party that won most votes from coming to power is not only undemocratic and stupid, but is also dangerous. It will further destabilize and divide Ukraine. I hope that my brothers in East and South of the country will split from this idiotic orange state and join Russia.
March 27, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterMarko
42.54% of ballots counted and Yulia/BYT fell back into second.

This is going to be close, that's for sure.
March 27, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterJosef in America
Regions is going to finish much stronger than at present because the count is proceeding in the west of Ukraine at a much faster pace. Ternopil has counted 76 percent but Donestk has counted only 37 percent and other strong Regions oblasts have counted 25-35 percent.
On the other hand, Kyiv city has counted 15 percent so this will offset the Orange loss from here on out in the counting.
March 27, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterWRY
My numbers are as of 11 a.m. EST in the US
March 27, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterWRY
Made closer by the sudden renaming of Russian last names that confused some to the point of their being unable to vote and the voting difficulty imposed upon the Ukrainian citizenry of Trans-Dniester.

But all we hear about is how rigged the election was in Belarus. Any clear proof offered on that?
March 27, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterMichael Averko
Also of interest: Counting by oblast, Yush party is in first place in 4: Lviv, Ternopil, Ivano-Franko and Transcarpathia. Yulia leads in all the other oblasts that went Orange in the presidential election. Then it is like falling off a cliff (or looking up one, depending on one's point of view: every blue oblast from the presidential election is going 41-73 percent Regions.
Yush gets his biggest percentage in I-F (48 percent) and Yulia gets hers in Kyiv (oblast) and Volyn - 44 percent each.
Also, Yulia is in 2nd place everywhere she does not lead, except in the "Far East" of Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea (including Sevastopol.
March 27, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterWRY
The four Yush oblasts are in the far west, in parts of the country that were not in the Soviet Union until WWII and after.
March 27, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterWRY
A study in contrasts:

Donestsk: Regions: 73%; BYUT: 2.3%

Volyn: BYUT: 44%; Yush, 21%; Regions: 3.8%

Kyiv (city): BYUT: 40%; Yush, 15%; Regions:12%
March 27, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterWRY
Yush now leads BYuT in Chernivets. So 5 oblasts for Our Ukraine.
March 27, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterWRY
Half the vote has been counted.
Regions: 27.34%
BYuT: 23.53%
Nasha Uk.: 16.27%
Socialist: 6.89%
Communist: 3.53%

No others past 3 percent.
In oblasts being carried by Regions, an average of 39 percent of the vote has been counted.
I wonder if they're up to Mayor Daly's old Chicago tricks: He used to wait until all the downstate Illinois vote was counted before releasing his numbers from Chicago. The story goes that he would then know how much padding of the numbers to do.
Not that Regions can win at this point, but I wonder if they will go over 30 percent and by how much. The "Orange" forces are getting about 47 percent of the total vote, but about 60 percent of the vote that is cast for parties over 3 percent.
On the other hand if Yushchenko did ally with Regions the combination would have about 250 seats.
Everybody talks about how the results are so bad for Yushchenko, but on the other hand he has quite a bit of bargaining power too.
March 27, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterWRY
WRY: Thanks so much for the updates! Josef, too, but the important element is what WRY pointed out, the pro-Regions regions are consistently lagging 20% behind in the vote counting, so RoU is going to pull ahead considerably in the tail end of the vote count. That means we could see a Yanukovych vote of 35%+.

Lalulu: My goodness gracious! You are the last person I expected to see full of doom-and-gloom. Yanukoyvch is set to have a 3-4% better showing than most of the polls on average put him. (i.e. I might have expected 32%, but he could be above 35%)

Can it be you weren't paying attention to WRY's comment about the lag in Eastern vote counting? (Crimea, too)

Michael: As I mentioned in a previous post, the real question is about how many people are going to both affected, and unable to figure their way to finding the (atrocious) translation of names. I've seen many Ukrainians behave extremely determinedly and resourcefully when presented with situations like this. (as well as dead people on the voter lists and ghost neighbors where there are no neighbors, etc...)

I'm waiting on the OSCE's determination, but you, of course, are not. :)
March 27, 2006 | Registered CommenterDan McMinn
This is just a rough guess, but given the percentage of the vote outstanding there is a chance Vitrenko will get past the 3 percent mark and into the Verkhovna Rada. Her percentage stands at 2.3 percent now, but she is 2nd- or 3rd place, and well over 3 percent, in the big eastern oblasts where the vote is slow coming in. She's the only one that's not over 3 percent now that stands a chance. The others under 3 percent seem to be fading as the count goes on.
March 27, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterWRY
Yeah, the exit polls had placed her just above 3%, for the most part. It does make sense that she would have a good showing if RoU also had a good showing.
March 27, 2006 | Registered CommenterDan McMinn
Dan;

That's because the OSCE has become compromised.

This name change business isn't right no matter how one wants to spin it. Ditto hastling the Ukrainian citizenry of Trans-Dniester.
March 27, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterMichael Averko
Here she comes - up a notch into 7th place.
March 27, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterWRY
With 100% of votes now counted, I have posted an analysis that readers of this thread might be interested in. I am an elections specialist (by profession, but also by hobby!) and generalist rather than a Ukraine expert, so I would certainly benefit from comments by those of you who follow Ukraine all the time!

http://fruitsandvotes.com/?p=661
March 30, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterMatthew

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