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Corruption Returns, Episode VI

Some economic old news

"Corruption is back," warned Yushchenko at a press conference recently.

My goodness. I wasn't aware it had left. Perhaps he meant it had just stepped back in after a restroom break.

Certainly PoR is going to spend no efforts reigning it in, but with, for example, RosUkrEnergo, the company has not gone back into the shadows, it never left and NSNU supported it in power as much as PoR does now.

More eyebrow-raising was how frank Stephen Pifer, former US Ambassador to Ukraine, was about corruption concerns. I do like it when my compatriots call things like they are. (also from Channel 5) As one might expect, the Economist Intelligence Unit also listed corruption at the top of its risk assessment for Ukraine.

Wait, I take that back. It may not be that corruption was absent during the orange tenure, but things are definitely going downdownhill

Of course the other big problem in 2007 is likely to be the price of energy. While SigmaBleyzer's most recent montly report is again bullish, the optimistic folks there couldn't strike quite so happy a note in a report on energy. Hopefully, they say, the $130 price to be charged next year will only slow down GDP growth by 2%.

Which brings us to another bit of old, old news. 

Remember Odesa-Brody?

This used to be an oil pipeline project with prospects to help Ukraine circumvent Russian supply/transit dominance in Western Europe. But recently all negotiations teetered and ultimately collapsed after some solid pushes from Russia. The project is now "sidelined indefinitely", which is a step down from the policy of repeatedly putting it off, in force for the last five years.

So that's one fewer non-Russian fuel conduit. And it strengthens Putin's hand nicely ahead of his first visit to Ukraine in two years.

Here's Hoping WTO Entry Will Be An Exception

In guardedly positive news, all the necessary papers for joining the WTO have been signed. All that's left is agreement with Kyrgyzstan, and both Nasha Ukrayina and the Party of Regions are talking about getting in in the spring. Great! But the KP opinion article cited here expressed worries that more technicalities will arise to delay the process.

Posted on Wednesday, December 20, 2006 at 09:49PM by Registered CommenterDan McMinn | Comments30 Comments

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Reader Comments (30)

WTO not to mention that an economy minister was again doing the Yanu song and dance about what can WTO do for Ukraine (and not vice versa). Ridiculous work-slow-down and using spin to make it look like it is in UA's best interests (which is most assuredly NOT). Grrr to the PoR!
December 21, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterIIU
E. Ukraine esp. Luhansk has real economic woes - 20,000 people left without heat in Luhansk (this not long after strike at privately owned mine - miners not paid in months) and 3 schools in Donetsk are on verge of striking - no pay, heat or hot water.
December 21, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterIIU
At press conference held by Lutsenko - wishes for the New Year - politicians stop lying, people stop believing in politicians completely, stop looking for saviors or sinners, and start relying on their own resources (my paraphrasing.) Pretty good New Year wishes! Happy Holidays and Happy New Year to Everyone! Wishing everyone wealth, happiness and health!
December 21, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterIIU
"Iron-fist 'supreme' ruler of Turkmenistan dies suddenly"
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2514178,00.html

Major repurcussions for Ukraine see
"It's a Gas. Funny Business in the Turkmen-Ukraine Gas Trade."
http://www.globalwitness.org/media_library_detail.php/479/en/its_a_gas._funny_business_in_the_turkmen_ukraine_g
December 21, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterIIU
Bloomberg article about Shell oil foreign investment which Gazprom now will own a major chunk.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a4EZfXCnZIXI&refer=home

""Газпром" викуповує контрольний пакет акцій проекту Сахалін-2"
http://5.ua/newsline/251//34805/

December 21, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterIIU
I hear that if there is a shortfall in gas from turkmenistan that Russia has promised to make up the difference.
http://www.playfuls.com/news_10_6096-ROUNDUP-Putin-Declares-new-Pragmatism-After-Yushchenko-Talks.html

It seems that Putin is trying to improve his public image with the west by adopting a less antagonistic and more pragmatic stance with Ukraine.

dlw
December 22, 2006 | Unregistered Commenterdlw
dlw - you think that Putin is being nice? or showing the iron hand in the velvet glove? Personally I lean towards the latter. And whether it is a less antagonistic stance depends more on actions and not words. (re-read Dan's entry re: Odessa-Brody which Russia shut down.) I do not advise purchasing any land nr. Ukrainian gas pipelines as they will soon be owned by Gazprom, probably before 2008.

And I am not surprised that on the day of Putin's visit, the Pres. signed the budget for 2007 as the PM said he would which was a watered down version of his demands re: the pay to pensioners and others.
December 22, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterIIU
You're probably right.

I'm too much of an optimist.

We'll see...

dlw
December 23, 2006 | Unregistered Commenterdlw
Truthfully, I hope that I am wrong but actions and time will tell.

Actually, I am kinda frazzled about Putin's visit in total. For him to travel from Moscow to Kyiv to sign an accord about inc. cooperation bet. Ministry's of Tourism is like finding out that Kissinger was doing bar mitzvahs or U2 doing high school dances. Could this not have been entrusted to a diplomatic pouch? Or hanldled by peons? Why would it need one of the most powerful people on the planet to inconvenience themselves right before a major Holiday? Lots of ques. regarding exactly what went on behind closed doors.
December 23, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterIIU
Well, I'm sure that improving his public relations with the West has something to do with it. I think he could use some better publicity as of late...

dlw
December 24, 2006 | Unregistered Commenterdlw
Here is the report from Ukrainian Pravda - picking up all sorts of little nuances.

IIU will understand the bit about filling in the letters on the license plate "НХ"
December 24, 2006 | Unregistered Commenterelmer
You forgot the link elmer.

Merry Christmas to Dan and everyone!

dlw
December 25, 2006 | Unregistered Commenterdlw
The Zone
http://5.ua/newsline/230/0/34952/
Video of radioactive radiators being hauled out of the zone - the zone has been a source of illegal scrap and parts for years leaking radioactivity across the country. Inc. a source of venison and boar for fancy restaurants.

See http://www.opuszczone.com/index.php for pictures (site in Polish)

and Martin Cruz Smith wrote about the Zone in his mystery book "Wolves Eat Dogs". In a poverty stricken country with underpaid militia guarding a 30 km (17 mi. radious) territory, looting has and will continue to go on.

For those who wish, it can be a tourist trip.
http://www.lonelyplanet.com/journeys/feature/chernobyl06.cfm
December 25, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterIIU
http://www.nrcu.gov.ua/index.php?id=148&listid=38875
Crimean Parliament urges VR to recognize deportation of Crimean nation in 1944 as genocide.
December 25, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterIIU
Here is the link to the article that I forgot to post, on Putin's visit. Thanks, dlw, for pointing that out.

It is in Ukrainian.

http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2006/12/22/52689.htm
December 26, 2006 | Unregistered Commenterelmer
Countdown ---- will Belarus end up paying $200 per cu. for gas? or will Gazprom leave them in the cold?
December 26, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterIIU
It is expected that tom. again Tarasyuk will be physically prevented from attending what will be the last Cabinet Minister's mtg. of the year. (Tarasyuk could meet with Putin but not with Yanukovych and Azarov?!?)

And Moroz is stating that the Cabinet Ministers bill will go through even if Pres. vetos (which must mean that BYuT has agreed to vote for the bill as well.)

Well, so much for Holiday cheer, back political strife.
December 26, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterIIU
Why bother having a President?

And if BYuT has agreed to vote for that, doesn't that mean that Tymoshenko is more interested in herself than in the people or in good government?

How can anyone in Ukraine trust a government like this?
December 26, 2006 | Unregistered Commenterelmer
How BYuT votes will be seen (if it even comes to that.) The interesting feature is how Moroz as well as others use press conferences and "slips of the tongue" to try to influence their opponent's strategy and manipulate events. (Honestly makes American politics look like the minor leagues.)
December 26, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterIIU
On a different note, Ukrainian map collection of over 900 maps arrives at Harvard.


http://www.news.harvard.edu/gazette/2006/12.14/07-maps.html
December 27, 2006 | Unregistered Commenterelmer

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