Let the CIS Observers Come in March
This is just a quick riff in response to Ukrainska Pravda's article: First Cracks in the Armor of the Kremlin's Spin Doctors.
The article is a commentary on Ukraine's recent decision not to invite the CIS observation mission to observe the March election. UP thinks this is a good move, since the CIS observers deserve to be barred for their partisanship during the 2004 election. (the only one they have ever judged negatively, including elections in Belarus and the 'Stans)
I think this is really dumb. Yes, no legitimate observer group would come away from the 2004 Belarus election claiming it was "free and fair". So what? Let them come and give their inevitable speeches about election fraud on the part of everyone but Regions of Ukraine and maybe the Communists. The observers themselves are unlikely to add to the fraud themselves, and the inevitable contrast between their opinion and that of all the legitimate observers will only provide yet another example showing that they produce results to fit an agenda, not in response to the actual event.
By this point, nobody who does not already subscribe to the anti-democratic CIS agenda gives them any credit. What possible harm could they do as observers that is worse than the moral victory they get by being unable to observe? As observers, they will be judged based on their results. As potential observers barred from the process, they can make, and will make, a slew of accusations of corruption and anti-democratic behavior that they need not support with evidence gathered in the field.
Barring the CIS observers doesn't stop them from saying what they've always said, it just stops them from needing to find supporting evidence.
Dan McMinn
in 02) Foreign Policy - Russia, 04) Foreign Policy - Eastern Europe, 31) Mar 2006 Parl. Election
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Reader Comments (6)
Did you see how Western NGOs spun the recent presidential election in Azerbaijan? Lukashenko isn't worse than Aliev. You wouldn't know that upon hearing the slick commentary of Richard Lugar. A clasic example of utilizing human rights as a propaganda tool. Lugar's spin made Azerbaijan appear more democratic than Russia which is a complete farce. And you want me to trust Lugar's review of elections in Ukraine?
And it's not just Lugar. Kuzio, Kwashniewski, Brzezinski, Albright et al.
However, typically for Ukraine, there is some confusion over this - the Ukrainian Foreign ministry spokesman that you quote was probably 'firing from the hip'. According to 'Ukrainska Pravda' at http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2005/12/13/36604.htm Yushchenko declared at a press conference in Odessa 13th Dec. that Ukraine is prepared to invite observers from any country or international organization who wish to attend, including the CIS. I'm sure they will indeed do this for the reasons you state. Any other action would deny Ukrainian observers, perhaps even working on behalf of international bodies, from attending future elections in CIS countries.
If only analysis of Ukrainian matters were as simple as Toynbee suggests...The more you know, the more you realize that Russian-Ukrainian relations are very complex and multi-layered. E.g. shared suffering and shared victories during the last century were certainly powerful binding agents. For about half of the Ukrainian citizens Russian is their first language, and the country is, broadly speaking, polarized, each half having a differing ‘Weltanschauug’, but nevertheless opinion polls show that in general, Ukrainians do have a distinct sense of collective nationhood.
In some ways, the current gas crisis serves the political ends of both the Russian and the Ukrainian leaderships, but the matter will be resolved, if only because gas delivery shortfalls in Europe would be very embarrassing to Putin when Russia assumes presidency of the G8 in January, an event which no doubt will be accompanied with lots of posturing and crowing by Putin.
Anyone from Europe or North America who has visited Russia or Ukraine, particularly in the winter, cannot fail to notice how wastefully gas is used. This must change as gas prices inevitably rise in those countries. Better for Yushchenko that Gazprom takes the blame for this. Putin and his buddies continue to sell the pitch in the Russian media that Russia is surrounded by unreliable and treacherous neighbours who are always ungrateful for Russia's largesse. Only they can stand up to these guys and defend Mother Russia...As you say, it never does any harm to a politician, in whatever country, to be seen standing up for its national interests.
Russian leaders can't sleep because those pesky Ukrainians have got their hands on the gas pipeline valves and storage facilities which deliver gas to their customers in Europe, but if too much pressure is applied on Ukraine, and supplies to end users in Europe become erratic, the Europeans may start looking for [somewhat limited] alternative energy sources.
In order to increase gas sales, a big effort is being made Gazprom to show, above all, that it is a reliable supplier of fuel. I do not believe they would risk jeopardizing their reputation in a serious dispute with Ukraine over gas transit fees, which could result in interrupted gas deliveries to end-users. It’s a game of bluff and counter-bluff, but even though there are still more cards to play, both sides have a good idea what the final compromise will be.
I suspect that if Yushchenko really did have his back to the wall over gas, and felt that it was a matter of strategic national importance he would call Yanukovych [who he officially labelled leader of the opposition], Akhmetov and other oligarchs, VR speaker Lytvyn, Moroz, maybe even Yulia together, and form a united front. But as Yulia Mostova, in her brilliant 'Zerkalo Nedeli' piece suggests, these people are more concerned with getting their butts into the VR in next Spring's elections that working together for the national interest.
Therefore, it stands to reason that a CIS monitoring presence is perfectly acceptable.
Yeah, I certainly hope Yushchenko's blanket comment will overrule the Foreign Minister's statement.
I wholeheartedly agree about the inefficiency of Ukrainian industry. It's one of the numerous negative effects of Ukraine getting it's gas at below-market prices.
I hope Gazprom will fall back to a more reasonable timed increase plan. I agree that it would probably be a blow to their credibility with Europe if it cut off the gas. But recently they seemed to think they could convince Europe that if they shut off the gas it would be Ukraine's fault. I don't think the strategy would work, but I am not sure they will realize before fomenting a crisis with Ukraine.
Michael: I don't know nearly enough about Azerbaijan to talk about it. I respect Registan, and that blog covers all of Central Asia:
http://www.registan.net/index.php?cat=36
I think the result has pushed Europe to more actively consider alternate sources of energy. If they follow up, I definitely agree it will help put them in a more stable non-dependent position.