Betting on A Winner
Here are a few good articles I wanted to highlight that describe what has just happened in the protests, and what will soon happen under Yushchenko. They depend on Yushchenko winning the presidency, but that initial presupposition and the articles themselves are good bets from some great bettors on Ukraine.
Taras Kuzio, in an article Yushchenko Victory to Speed Up Ukraine's Democratization and Europeanization in the Eurasian Daily Monitor, gives his usual great assessment of all the political realignments that have recently occurred and what further sackings and judicial inquiries to expect. [hat tip Action Ukraine Report]
Nataliya Yatsenko, writing in Dzerkalo Tizhnya, describes The Budget Drafted by Cynics. This account describes just how unsustainable Yanukovych's pensions giveaway is. Budget headaches resulting from this will probably be one of Yushchenko's first major problems to deal with as President. It confirms Yushchenko's words from his campaign and from the debates yesterday--the pension one-off was a crude bit of populism.
When I saw Yanukovych say, in his first debate with Yushchenko, that he would not have run for President if he had not been blessed by a (Russian Orthodox) priest in Israel, I felt a ringing sense that he'd just uttered a powerful word of blasphemy. The Sin of their Mouths, the Word of their Lips, by Myroslav Marynovych and also in Dzerkalo Tizhnya, is an article decribing the moral struggle in this election. I include it not only because it is good, but also because it is extremely rare to see such overt and strong biblical language used in discussions of Eastern European politics.
Dan McMinn
in 33) Dec 2004 Pres. Election, 35) Orange Revolution
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http://www.yankeepotroast.org/daily/041215.html
-nikita demosthenes
Dan...
In contrast with the excellent Jamestown article that points to some bright prospects for the future in Ukraine, their post, Kremlin Strategists Warn of Serious Rift With The West describes possible dark days ahead.
Jamestown's (self-described) posts "delivered without political bias" prompts my own biased commentary...
The first article points to the greatest ideological shift toward democracy in the history of Ukraine, presaging the best prospects for true freedom and prosperity that the Ukrainian people have seen since the ancient Scythians of Ukraine became the worlds first horsemen, invented the short bow, drank their wine straight and scared the hell out of the Romans.
The second points to the greatest reversal of Russian fortunes in modern times, as Putin's covert and overt attacks on neighboring nations in general and western nations in particular sets his nation back thirty years, plunging it into prospects of a returning dictatorship, a re-closed society and a new declaration of cold war against the West.
The Romans were smart enough to learn valuable lessons in Ukraine, but Putin looks the Ukraine gift-horse in the mouth, and exposes his political acumen as astounding idiocy. Someone should slap him awake, out of his nightmarish dreams...
I believe that there will be dark days ahead for Ukraine, its relations with Russia and the West. Also dark days ahead for American/West relations with Putin/Russia. I hope that post-election, there will not be a 'job is done' feeling but one more of 'a fissure leading to a potential earthquake'.
I think that Kuzio is overly optimistic in stating that "A Yushchenko victory on December 26 will permanently change Ukraine's
political landscape. Instead of Yanukovych's consolidated autocracy and
Russian-style managed democracy, Ukraine is set to move decidedly ahead
in democratization ahead of the 2006 elections, the first election to be
held in Ukraine with a fully proportional law."
I agree much more with cautioinary optimism expressed by President Saakashvili in his statement that "The world should be alert on December
26, when Ukraine re-runs its election, and in the years to follow as the
enemies of freedom will try to undermine Ukraine's progress just as they try
in my own country (Georgia). Ultimately, I believe that revanchist attempts will fail.
Reforms can be expected throughout the whole post-Soviet region and they
will lead to completion of the third and final wave of the European
liberation."
And I do hope that there will a fourth wave of liberation freeing China and its people.
The first impression that struck me after reading the article on the debates was that it is rare anywhere to see such strong biblical language used by debating candidates for office, televised or other..it really stood out from anything I've ever heard. Shows that accountability to a higher power(God), is strong and alive in Ukrainian culture and thought.
Though politicians may acknowledge their religious beliefs in speeches, seldom, if ever, had it been part of a debate. I also think it's good. Demonstrates the true meaning of "freedom of Religion." Unfortunately, I can also see an element of manipulating the debate through "the forgiveness tactic" rather than answering the question directly.
Don't get me wrong, forgiveness is good, if one is truely repentant.
It is ultimately hopeful that Saakashvili believes in 'third wave' completion.
There is other hope too. Primary of which has been the massive foreign policy embarrassment suffered by Putin and his Russian pals - which was MOST interestingly followed yesterday with the statement that, "the Kremlin would work well with Viktor Yushchenko" (Or words to effect - and just think... how might THAT statement effect the election on the 26th!)
This was almost immediately followed by Yushchenko in stating that his first foreign visit would be to Moscow. What Moscow makes of this meeting will be key to completion of that all important liberation from semi-Soviet domination.
Putin was much closer to being on the right path a while back when he seemed to seriously consider EU membership for Russia - rather than the current disaster that he turned to, that of attempting to create a competing Russian dominated trade alternative.
To salvage his reputation, Putin needs to scrap revanchist plans, take his lumps and embark on restoring his image - which he could easily do by joining the rest of the free world by embracing democratic change in his own nation. He should think on that, if he really values his national and international image.
Alas, at the moment he sourly dreams of a return to dictatorial enslavement, and himself as lifelong dictator. Perhaps Yushchenko will enlighten him, if not turn him completely. In addition, the Russian people will not go backward without massive resistance - so Putin won't easily see his nightmare to fruition.
I'll put my bets where he does. :)
Ron - it will be interesting to see how Ukraine's development influences Putin. Uh... that's about it. :)
And Yuschenko going to Moscow? I hope he gets better at negotiating. I wasn't wowed by the 'terms' resulting out of the 'round table' talks. Though I do accept he keeps his eye on the prize - the Presidency. And I love the fact that Tymoshenko and he shimmied out from strict adherence, to the point where Kuchma was crying foul. Boo hoo.
And as for Putin salvaging his reputation - I don't think he cares, personally or professionally. I think that he will only become more entrenched in his beliefs and position. As Discoshaman blogged - Russia has officially become a 'Not Free" country being the only country to downgraded by Freedom House in 2004. http://www.freedomhouse.org/media/pressrel/122004.htm
And as for the Russian people going 'backward without massive resistance' - hogwash. They already have gone backward with almost no resistance. I feel really bad for the Russian people and hope that efforts will continue and hopefully be strengthened so that they can have a civil society. I hope that "From Dictatorship to Democracy" by Gene Sharp gets translated into Russian soon and published. http://www.aeinstein.org/organizations.php3?action=printContentItem&orgid=88&typeID=16&itemID=55 It is being called the "how to book for opposition groups from Serbia, Georgia and now Ukraine", which of course, is being connected back to OTPOR NPR broadcast Dec. 23
Putin has not changed and will not change. Look at what goes in Chechnya daily. Resistance is futile as the borg say. Any country/govt that has no problem killing its own people in order to succeed is not open to negotiations or adjustment based on embarassment. (The identity and antidote of the gas used in the Moscow theater was not released - hospitals were never informed prior to its discharge). The only way Putin is going to go is either feet first or feet first. Until such time, he and Kremlin are super dangerous.