Spotlight on the Biggest Privatization in Ukraine 

Since privatization is a big topic again with the fight between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko, I thought it would be worth looking back to see what's going on with Kryvoryzhstal, now Mittal Steel Kryvy Rih.

For background, this state asset was first privatized in an untransparent bid by Akhmetov and Pinchuk in Fall 2004 for $800mn, then reprivatized in November of 2005 in a fair and open bid that provided a massive amount more money for government coffers ($4.8bn: more than the previous 10 years of investment). It's been quite a while since I've seen big news about the plant, but if we're to decide what we think of Tymoshenko's new privatization proposals, knowing the current status of this key privatization will be important.

2006-2007 

In the spring of 2006 ran into troubles (some big troubles) with State Property Fund Chairwoman Valentyna Semenyuk. Taking into account that she fought against the privatization to Mittal Steel from the beginning (preferring, implicitly, the much less economically beneficial, nontransparent, and suspicious privatization to Akhmetov and Pinchuk), this was not an unexpected attack. However, her accusation that Mittal wasn't keeping the promises regarding wages that were part of the privatization deal did not seem to have been refuted by the company in the Ukrainiska Pravda article above, thought the company resolved to do better. Two days later, according to this article, the company raised the wages it pays its employees to the highest in the entire metallurgic sector.

Things also seem to have improved in fall of 2006, when Mittal Steel got a loan from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development for $500mn to modernize the facilities. The company claimed to have already invested a further $85mn of its own money in the same effort. This article in New Europe states that the company managed to increase sales by 16% as the result of its efforst in 2006.

In 2007, the company bought a new coke battery, increased production in the first quarter, and submitted plans for further investment and growth, especially growth in sales in the Ukrainian market. A January 2008 report states that the company lifted output for 2007 year by 7%. 

Finally, the company is cited in this report on the Ukrainian steel market as the major factor in increasing competition in the Ukrainian steel production, and thus improving the market overall.

2008 

For it in 2008 is this conflict, in which it seems the company has defaulted on one promise to improve the situation for workers, as well as a number of lesser articles in the privatization agreement of 2005 (again coming into conflict with Semenyuk).

I originally looked back into this issue, because a friend of mine who knows people working in or around Mittal Steel Kryvy Rih told me that his acquantences were complaining that the new company was worse than the old one.

Does anyone else have more information on this? The track record in the articles of continued investment and growth looks good from a business standpoint. However, is this be happening without greatly improving the situation for workers? What's happened to the high wages they were reported to have been earning in 2006?

Thanks in advance for any article links you might have! 

Tymoshenko and Yushchenko's Loudest Confrontation Yet: Privatization

It used to be that Yushchenko would send uncountable directives over to Tymoshenko and she would blithely ignore most of them and work towards her own purposes while saying she "admires" the president. He would veto what she did, issue a new directive, and the process would start again.

Recently, things have degenerated.

The major sticking point is Tymoshenko's extensive privatization plan, the proceeds from which she intends to use mostly for government remunerations (or handouts) to holders of Soviet bank accounts made worthless in the aftermath of the fall of the Soviet Union. Yushchenko considers this an irresponsible use of the money, and accuses her of privatizing into the hands of her allies--the claim made by pretty much every party against a privatization by one of its opponents.

So, for example, since State Property Fund Chairwoman Valentyna Semenyuk has been one of the main agents blocking Tymoshenko's privatizations, Tymoshenko kicked her out and installed her own chairman, Andriy Portnov. Yushchenko reinstated Semenyuk, cancelled the privatizations, and issued a "yellow card" warning to Tymoshenko's government. The Constitutional Court overturned his decision, and Tymoshenko told Portnov to ignore it. Along a parallel track, the privatization of, for example the Odesa Pre-Port Plant has been ordered, suspended, ordered again, and again suspended. The Eurasia Daily Monitor has a summary of all the tit-for-tat.

In retaliation, it seems, BYT lined up with the Party of Regions and Tymoshenko said she supports a vote to decrease the President's power in favor of the Parliament (and she's been taking on a number of advisors from the defunct and unmourned SDPU(o) of Viktor Medvedchuk, though this may not be a retaliatory gesture as much as a tactical one). However, when Yushchenko saw that he lacked the support of the Constitutional Court and the Parliament, he backed down. His statement is a classic one of a politician accidentally saying the truth:

Let us not put to question which organization [of power] we need, but focus on the task of achieving, through dialogue, through the work of public commission, through public referendum, a system of counterweights which would ensure serene future for us and our children.

Exactly. Now why have you been wasting your time on this issue practically since you got into office?

Not that Tymoshenko or Yanukovych are any less to blame. The last link goes to an article in Dzerkalo Tizhnya: it's wordy, but overall a great article. The line that pretty much sums everything up:

Each of the three top Ukrainian political players more or less realize the need of the reforms, but all explain their slackness by the following logic: “Now preparations for the decisive battle are going on. What is of critical importance now is to garner as much resources and voter support as possible. It is imperative that sufficient financial, media and electoral reserves be built up. I will begin attending to the country’s salvation and development once I take the country’s top office for a long enough period”. The result is that Tymoshenko and Yushchenko are competing in populism, while Yanukovych, in the absence of State resource, is busy with NATO and language-related issues. This provides an explanation as to why we keep making the same mistake, which is because we make no headway. A country cannot move ahead unless and until the main state and public challenges are correctly identified and begun to be dealt with. Purely personal and corporate interests of policy makers cannot provide enough progress to drive us away from the same old mistake.

Speaking of wasting their time on political games while gas and inflation crises loom...

The Kyiv Mayoral Election vs. Macroeconomics

Taras Kuzio, writing in the Eurasia Daily Monitor, thinks BYT's candidate in the Kyiv mayoral election, Turchynov, will be able to get past Klitchko and Chernovetsky, citing corruption charges against both of the latter. I still fail to see how Turchynov is going avoid similar charges sufficiently to overcome the huge gap in public support between himself and the main contenders--particularly since there will be no runoff. Not that we should want Chernovetsky to win (which recent polls think he might, using the same tactics as last year).

This mayoral election is the biggest distraction from the two main problems for Ukraine, both of which are economic: inflation and fuel price hikes. 

While Tymoshenko was certainly overstating things when she said her government was getting the highest appreciation in the world and holding inflation policy unchanged will be enough, it is true that she was praised by the WTO.
The IMF was more moderate in its praise. In this report it did not actively argue against her privatization plan, but it definitely suggested holding back at least some of the money thus earned to promote a more balanced budget (meaning less going to Tymoshenko's handouts). Another one of its main points is that the hryvnia should be allowed to float against the dollar (meaning appreciate, in the current economic climate). According to the Ukrainian Journal, the NBU seems interested and Tymoshenko has reigned in her criticism of the bank on at least this issue. The WTO and IMF both make the situation with inflation seem less dire than Dzerkalo Tizhnya seems to think it is, but DzT bases more of its assessment on an expected massive fuel price hike from Russia (something I also think is imminent, and the IMF notes as a potentially major problem).

Two More Good Items 

One alternative to politics-watching is this entry on Ukrainiana about Chernobyl. It includes Taras's own story from living (six years old) in Kyiv at the time. It also is heavily laden with YouTube videos related to the event.

Another wonderful and unrelated article by John Marone at Eurasia Home praises the introduction of national standardized university examinations. One step forward for transparency, one step backward for corruption.

BYuT and NUNS fight over city politics, the nation gets closer to crisis

February and part of March were the Party of Region's chance to waste everyone's time blocking parliament with their NATO Circus of Obstructionism. The end of March seems to have been burnt up looking for the next issue for politicians to focus on. Now it's April and they've finally found something to keep themselves from addressing any of the multiple looming disasters—the Kyiv Mayoral Election.

NUNS is the less popular party, but is pushing for the vastly more popular candidate in this election: Klitchko. BYuT's candidate is Turchynov, who has about 6% popularity to Klitchko's 31%. That means that if Tymoshenko wants him to win she'll have to spend massive amounts of time and political capital to do so. So far she doesn't seem to have been deterred at seeing what PoR earned for its anti-NATO efforts on a national level—a ten percent drop in popularity and repeated local election losses to Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko.

Certainly Baloha and his new gang (a breakaway from NUNS) haven't acted constructively and won't do so in the future. But NUNS bleeds votes every election because of their pettiness and unprofessionalism. It's BYuT, which is stronger and more politically savvy that will need to compromise here, because there are much bigger national problems her Cabinet needs to be addressing.

Inflation

Thank's to IIU's blogging, readers here already know that inflation is a big problem that's getting worse. Years without reform, worldwide price increases for foodstuffs, government-on-government increases in unsupported payouts to voters (the most recent being Tymoshenko's payments on Soviet accounts) have all resulted in 26% inflation this March.

As with other issues, NUNS and BYuT are working at cross-purposes. Tymoshenko's payouts went through, but the privatizations she proposed to use to generate the money to pay for them were vetoed by Yushchenko. She's tried to get rid of a longstanding land auction ban which she also thinks could improve economic growth (I do, too) and has again been vetoed by Yushchenko. I would be less apt to think Yushchenko was simply playing spoiler if I saw any indication that he has a better plan instead of his usual vague generalities.

Tymoshenko has said the government going to stop inflation in five to six months. To do this will take actual reforms, though, and that means working with NUNS. That may not be possible under any circumstances, but fighting over the Kyiv mayor is the one way to ensure defeat.

Gas Price Hikes

RosUkrEnergo is still hanging on in Ukraine-Russia gas deals despite Tymoshenko's opposition. She is claiming a victory anyway by saying that the deals will happen on Russian soil so it is technically "out of the Ukrainian market", but it looks from this angle like she's trying to save face after failing to eliminate it.

Though Russia has been able to keep its intermediary (and its active push to keep RosUkrEnergo throughout the negotiations last month confirms that it is, indeed, Russia's preferred intermediary), this won't stop Ukraine's gas prices from increasing significantly in the next few months. The ultimate driving force will be simple, rational self-interest: why sell at under $200 per m³ to Ukraine when Europe will soon be paying over $300 per m³ to Europe?

The price rise has already been foreshadowed: a month ago Russia increased the price it pays Central Asia for gas. This was not out of generosity: it was a revision to preempt hard bargaining by Central Asia, or (much worse for Russia) actual progress on alternative gas routes to Europe that don't include it (one of them is Tymoshenko's White Stream project, lauded by The Economist, which would be a great use of her considerable political skills if she weren't too busy in Kyiv). Russia's price increase is likely to be passed on to Europe in the near future, and Ukraine should not expect to be far behind.

We should not be distracted from this issue. Yes, another Russian general has threatened to attack Ukraine militarily (and with "other methods" as well), and responding in a professional manner was important. Yes, Kommersant claims Putin said Ukraine "isn't a real nation" and it will "cease to exist" if it joins NATO (a claim his government has not refuted). Ukrainian politicians should remember this when dealing with Russia (Hey, Yanukovych, you've been shouting a lot about Ukrainian national sovereignty at anti-NATO rallies—refresh my memory, when did any NATO ally threaten that as much as Putin just did?). Nevertheless, the real motive force in the gas sphere will be the $100 per m³ price differential. Either Russia will take payment in cash, or in ownership of Ukrainian energy assets, but it won't sit for long without payment.

I don't know when the hike will come. Gazprom may not know, and maybe not even the Russian government. But since the Russian government doesn't like NATO and doesn't think Tymoshenko is going to give it anything in exchange for the discount pricing, the hike will certainly come this year. If Russia is looking to improve its chances of getting paid, it may hike them this summer or wait until inflation is more under control, so it doesn't catch Ukraine when it is more desperate. If it wants to shake Ukraine up more it may load on the hike about the same time that inflation problems come to a head.

Not Even Together Enough To Host A Soccer Match

Inadequate preparation for Euro 2012 should be a big issue. There is $25 billion more investment that needs to be made, Ukraine's reputation is on the line—this should be a cause for major concern. But, because the government has gotten into an inflationary and budgetary mess that dwarfs even this event, all that I'll do is note that it's still a problem. I will add, though, that it particularly unhelpful to see Yushchenko blithely state that everything is going smoothly despite warnings from Ukraine's host partner Poland and the Euro 2012 committee.

Tymoshenko Should Support Klitchko 

Below inflation, gas prices, Euro 2012, somewhere under corruption in public transportation, is the Kyiv mayoral election. And yet, the politicians of an entire nation are occupying themselves with this single city election.

Tymoshenko doesn't need to look very far to know what she should do in this situation: all she needs to do is remember her own decision ahead of the 2004 presidential election.

In 2004 she gave up her own candidacy in order to support Yushchenko, despite her ego and despite the animosity between them that is unlikely to have emerged fully-formed in January of 2005. The reason she did so was that she did not have a real chance at the presidency (her public popularity was in the low teens, I believe), but Yushchenko needed help to overcome his opponent Yanukovych. Divided, their two parties could have both lost a legitimate election to Yanukovych. In doing the right thing, Tymoshenko also earned enough voter support to improve her political rating far beyond anything she had had thusfar.

Tymoshenko should support Klitchko. Like Tymoshenko in 2004, Turchynov in 2008 is little more than a spoiler. This is especially true since the mayoral election, unlike the presidential, is decided without a runoff (though BYuT is trying to change this). If Turchynov and Klitchko fight one another, it is likely that both will lose to to Chornovetsky, whi is still polling above 30% popularity.

In a real, monetary way, Ukrainians cannot afford to watch BYuT and NUNS continue to squabble. If Tymoshenko makes the magnanimous step here, not only will it improve the nation's chances in the upcoming crises, but likely result in voters rewarding her as they did after 2004.

"Ukraine's parliament ratified a protocol on joining the World Trade Organisation on Thursday, clearing the final hurdle to membership after more than 14 years of negotiations. A total of 411 members in the 450-seat assembly approved the protocol, signed by President Viktor Yushchenko in February after the WTO said the former Soviet state had met membership conditions. Membership of the WTO takes effect 30 days after ratification." (Reuters)

Update: 5 more laws have to be passed for Ukraine to be able to enter into WTO.

"Addressing the Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament in Brussels, Solana said NATO rejected Ukraine's application for a Membership Action Plan during its annual summit this week because the country is not sufficiently mature politically. "Ukraine does not have a political system which is at the level of the aspirations of some [of its] leaders to be part of international organizations," he said. "That has been the response that, in a way, has been given by NATO." Solana said the message sent to Ukraine at the April 2-4 summit in Bucharest was that its leaders must act in a "much more constructive manner within the country." " (bold is mine) (RFE/RL)

"Ukraine’s inflation rate topped 26% in March, propelled by surging food prices and the government’s largesse. Although high food and energy price inflation are global phenomena, Ukraine’s situation is being made worse by budgetary policy. Moreover, the political climate reduces the likelihood of policy changes to meet the inflation challenge. ... Although the government tends to stress that high inflation is the unavoidable outcome of high food and energy prices globally, the authorities are doing their best to delay the impact of import-price inflation. Utility tariffs, for instance, are rising at a high single-digit rate this year. If the full cost of the gas-price hike instituted this year had been passed on, utility price inflation would be well into double digits. Instead, municipal budgets have borne much of the burden--this is a situation that cannot continue indefinitely, particularly as further import price rises are inevitable in 2009. If consumer prices fully reflected the cost of imported energy, inflation would be running even higher. ... As a result, there is no chance of meeting the official inflation target; most likely, price growth will be at or close to double that level." (The Economist)

"The Party of Regions (Regions) should be riding high in Ukrainian polls as opposition parties traditionally have golden opportunities to increase their popularity. Instead, Regions and its leader and former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych have been declining in popularity and are in a crisis. On March 6 Regions lost 6 mayoral elections in eastern Ukraine to local independents and the Yuliya Tymoshenko bloc (BYuT)." (EDM article by Kuzio)

The article reminds me of a broadcast of the show "EpiCenter" where the commentator spoke about the results from local elections and how BYuT was winning in local elections. Though from the way that he reported it, he made it seem as a 'conspiracy' of some sorts. My mom's commentary was "what did they think ByuT was going to do? plant potatoes? they are a political party."

"NATO membership is a not a priority, though, for voters as a whole. Only 0.8 percent of voters in Donetsk (compared with a Ukraine-wide average of 4.4 percent) considered it important, and it was second to last in a list of thirty-four priorities. In Ukraine, as in most countries, foreign affairs is not a high priority for voters, who vote on “bread and butter” issues." (quote from EDM article)

Check out Taras of Ukrainiana's footage from the anti-Nato rally in Kyiv.  

"Double world heavyweight champion Wladimir Klitschko will put his WBO belt on the line when he faces [American] Tony Thompson on July 12 in Hamburg." (Sky News)

"The hryvnia rate fell by 0.5 kopeck in interbank trading on Monday, to 5.0 UAH/USD after falling on Friday. ...  The National Bank of Ukraine did not enter the market.  According to market participants, most of the transactions were concluded at the exchange rate close to 5.0 UAH/USD." (Ukrainian News)

"Let the hryvnia exchange rate appreciate to contain Ukraine`s inflation. Ukraine`s inflation has got out of control. In February, it surged to no less than 22 percent over February 2007, doubling from 11.6 percent in 2006. This inflation crisis is Ukraine`s most urgent economic problem. Unlike in the 1990s, the problem is not the budget, which is close to balance. Instead, the main culprit is the inept exchange rate policy." writes Anders Aslund (UNIAN)

"In March, the consumer prices rose by 3.8%. Ukrainian News learned this from a statement by the State Statistics Committee. In particular, the consumer prices on foods and soft drinks grew by 5.6% in March, the prices of housing and utility services grew by 0.9%, and the health care services grew by 1.6%, the transport tariffs rose by 3.9%. In January-March the inflation rate totaled 9.7%. Compared to March 2007, in March 2008 the inflation rate rose by 26.2%." (Ukrainian News)

"The Ukrainian people sold $129.1 million more in hard currency in March than they bought, while in February they bought $668.2 million more than they sold, according to a statement from the National Bank of Ukraine." (Ukrainian Journal)

"Liquidity measures must be eased for economic growth, NBU says" (Ukrainian Journal)

"Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s group will soon join forces with opposition Regions Party to create a panel in Parliament that would focus on making amendments to the constitution, lawmakers said Monday. The panel, which will be a direct challenge to President Viktor Yushchenko’s own plans for re-writing the constitution, will focus on whether to dramatically increase powers of the prime minister." (Ukrainian Journal)

While "The faction of the Party of Regions at the Verkhovna Rada has elected Anatolii Kinakh as the deputy chairman of the faction for coordination with other parties and NGOs.... Anatolii Kinakh is the leader of the Ukrainian League of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs and the head of the all-Ukrainian Association of NGOs "People's Majority of Ukraine." The main tasks of faction deputy chairman Kinakh include the realization of public initiatives, accumulation of successful experience of NGOs and political organizations, the consolidation of their influence on the democratic reforms in the society and the organization of civil control over the work of the authorities." (Ukrainian News)

BYuT has yet to announce their candidate for Kyiv Mayor but so far no single candidate from the 'democratic coalition' though some political parties have combined their support for Klitschko.

"As the snap Kyiv mayoral election draws closer, it looks increasingly unlikely that the governing Orange coalition will be able to decide on a single candidate, raising the chances of incumbent Leonid Chernovetskiy of clinging onto office. Meanwhile, the eccentric Kyiv Mayor has continued to focus on attracting voters with promises and one-time payments. The elections of the city mayor and deputies to the Kyiv City Council are scheduled to coincide with the traditional Kyiv Days celebrations on May 25. The registration of candidates started on March 26 and will be closed on April 15. Candidates and their teams will then have just over one month to impress voters and raise their ratings." (Business Ukraine)

"An unseemly squabble within the governing coalition is currently hampering efforts to select a single Orange candidate for the forthcoming Kyiv Mayoral elections []. This lack of co-operation has come as no surprise to anyone who is even vaguely familiar with the goings-on in Ukrainian politics. Rather than representing an ideological split, these divisions within the Orange camp are symptomatic of a well-documented national malaise which seems to prevent Ukraine’s reformist leaders from ever presenting a united front in any but the most desperate of situations. While in opposition, the country’s Orange reformers are always ready to sign pacts and engage in talk of their historic mission, but once in government the appeal of power and the greed of individual politicians appear to take priority over broader national interests and ideological concerns, leaving the voters whose support propelled these self-styled saviours into office feeling cheated by their elected representatives and disillusioned with the democratic process in general." (Business Ukraine) 

"Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) Chairman Arseniy Yatseniuk is hoping that, in the course of two plenary weeks (April 8 - 11 and April 15 - 18), the parliament will adopt and ratify all documents and the protocol required for entry in the World Trade Organization.  President Viktor Yushchenko is proposing ratification of the protocol on Ukraine's accession to the World Trade Organization. Ukraine and the WTO reached membership agreement on February 5." (Ukrinform)

"The Russian president spoke about Georgia calmly, but lost his temper on the issue of Ukraine, said a source on the delegation of a NATO member state. Putin told his American colleague that Ukraine was not a proper state but an Eastern European territory, a substantial part of which had been presented to it by Russia. The source said Putin had openly hinted that if Ukraine were admitted to NATO, it would cease to exist as a state. In other words, he threatened to start the procedure for the secession of the Crimea and Ukraine's eastern regions." (RIA Novosti commenting on a story in Kommersant)(Newsru)

And over at Kremlin Inc, Hans reports on the story also in russian press that industrial espionage has been afoot in dealings between Ukraine and Gazprom.   

(деза - deza - abbreviated form of the word meaning disinformation)

"The rustic beauty of Ukraine's famed wooden churches is surpassed only by their capacity for survival. Dotting the countryside from the Carpathian Mountains to Crimea, they have withstood centuries of unforgiving winters. During World War II, Nazi shelling raked the Ukrainian heartland. Under Soviet rule, they became grain silos and warehouses for everything from mattresses to pesticides. Now, in an era when democracy and religion thrive in Ukraine, wooden churches as old as six centuries face ruin at the hands of the unlikeliest of enemies—the priests and parishioners who became their guardians and, unaware of their historical significance, began "improving" them. For Salyuk, president of the non-profit Lviv Foundation for the Preservation of Architectural and Historical Monuments, it's tantamount to blasphemy. Wooden churches are icons of Ukrainian architecture, he and other preservationists say, as synonymous with the country's cultural heritage as painted Easter eggs and borscht ... As crestfallen as Salyuk was when he walked up to Sytykhiv's only church, he's seen worse. Oblivious to their churches' architectural and cultural significance, priests and parishioners in other villages have cocooned the structures in metal plating or, in some cases, burned them down to build brick or stone replacements. ... Indifference toward cultural and historical treasures isn't confined to wooden churches, Dmytrukh says. He has visited homes throughout the Lviv countryside in which wooden icons—religious paintings sometimes hundreds of years old and the focal point of Ukrainian church interiors—are being used as attic doors, shelves or patches to fix holes." (Chicago Tribune) (Transitions Online) (ICOMOS 2001 report) (ukr Wooden Churches in Ukraine lots of photos)

If anyone has an opportunity to visit Ukraine, check out any neighboring wooden churches as they are vanishing. And I wonder if someone could start a tv program in Ukraine like "Cash in the Attic"?

"A U.S. judge ordered a former Ukrainian prime minister on Friday to pay nearly $19.5 million to a Ukrainian businessman who said the politician demanded cash and half ownership of his firm in exchange for favored treatment.

Pavlo Lazarenko, who served as Ukraine's prime minister from 1996 to 1997, was convicted in U.S. federal court in 2004 of using his position to extort millions of dollars from his country and then launder it through California banks. The indictment in the complicated and slow-moving case came down in 2000. During the trial businessman Peter Kiritchenko [a former Soviet trade official who was a Communist Party member] testified that he gave Lazarenko tens of millions of dollars and ownership of half of a company to help expand his firm. "I agreed to give him 50 percent of the profit and 50 percent of the company. I didn't see any other way to develop the company," Kiritchenko testified in 2004. He later asked for a court order for Lazarenko to give back the money, and on Friday U.S. District Judge Martin Jenkins agreed the former prime minister should return it." [add. to story is mine](Reuters)

Now is the true test of Ukraine's leadership and it's commitment to Euro-Atlantic intergration. The deadline has been set, the clock is ticking and there is only six months within which to indicate beyond a shadow of a doubt that Ukraine has been wrongly defined by its critics and detractors. It has been charged that the current politicians in power have been learning on the job. Well, now is the time to exhibit mastery or return back to the 'field'. Ready, set, go.

April Fools' Day and Anti-NATO Rally Day in Odesa 

It is with significant disappointment that I report to you the death of the "Odessan Sense of Humor".

Natives of the FSU will certainly remember the great number of comedians to come out of this city. Those who've visited the city or lived here often have stories of funny or witty bits of conversation. What was it like? It's hard enough to convey personal anecdotes, let alone second-hand ones, so I'm limited to my own experience. Unfortunately, I've only got one from our three months here.

A couple of older women are walking along, engaged in a deep conversation about a colleague. There was a lot of nodding and stern looks.

"...and you know," one said, "she's not spiteful. She doesn't do it out of spite."

"No, no, she's not spiteful, no..." said the other, and there was a moment of silence.

"But what about me?" 

If this does not convey the sense of humor, my apologies, I arrived too late to do it justice, it seems. It may be that occasional jokes still get floated around, but is simply drowned in the stream of profanity that begins a minute and a half from our door and flows along until a minute or so before we get wherever we're going.

April 1

It was with a sense of relief, if not a huge amount of hope, that we went to watch the April 1 celebration. Given Odesa's historic reputation for humor, April 1 is a big day here: an official city holiday this year. We could expect some of the prize humor to be at the show, wherever it is the rest of the year. Zhvanetsky, one of those famous Odesan comics, was slated to come.

When Zhvanetsky changed his mind and withdrew from the lineup, it was a warning sign.

Aside from Maski Show, a local clown act, and the cast of Derevnya Durokov, a television clown act, there wasn't anyone there who was ever funny, let alone who said something funny that day. By the time we finished dinner and headed down to the stage for the last three hours of the celebration, both groups were long gone. Without them, in fact, the only funny parts were the one's that weren't supposed to be funny.

Click pic to enlarge. Next to Precious is a girl from the Moscow circus in a leotard hanging in a hula hoop. The organizers apparently didn't think Eruption  was explosive enough on its own.Take Eruption, one of the two headline bands. Never heard of them? That's because it's a British R&B group that had a few hits in Germany and Europe in the 70s and 80s, then disappeared. Their second female lead singer, named Precious Wilson took the name when the rest of the group broke up, gathered together a couple girlfriends and created an all-female caberet act that's still singing Eruption's "hits" thirty years later. It's an uncomfortable mixture of funny and sad to watch Precious, now 51 years old, trying and failing to get a bunch of Ukrainian kids to sing the lyrics to Eruption's 1978 hit "One Way Ticket". When the MC called for an encore, she tried, and failed, again.

Wait, wouldn't that make it a two-way ticket?

After her was a strong man act with a guy in studded leather and his similarly-clad girlfriend. He lifted weights, and then lifted his girlfriend---almost as amazing as a trip to the gym or a football cheerleading squad practice. Then he blew up a hot-water bottle. For his big climax scene he (at this point you're going to think I'm kidding but I'm not) hammered a nail up his nose.

After him came a "zany" singing troupe that looked like it was made up of volunteers from my high school PTA. Did the PTA chaperones dance at your high school dances, too? Now you've got a mental picture of what I'm talking about.

Man in leather blowing up a hot water bottle All of which brings up a very important question: Why, God, why? Why couldn't they have gotten any decent Ukrainian music? There's plenty of Ukrainian bands with senses of humor. Why did they have a couple unfunny over-the-hill and pudgy Russian MCs and no actual comedians? Why did Zhvanetsky think the show was going to be a farce, not a good kind of farce, and cancel?

Two days later, I think I got my answer.

April 3 

Notwithstanding the fact that the Russian government, using Germany and France as proxies, has already vetoed giving Ukraine and Georgia NATO action plans for at least a year (actually, maybe I'm wrong about this, December may be the new goalpost, and Europe may not have barred Ukraine as strongly as I'd thought, see the comments here), there was an anti-NATO rally on April 3.

Some schoolkids march in for the rally, others ride the американские горки (roller coaster)It was held in the same plaza as the April 1 celebration, almost immediately after they'd taken down the props from that event. In fact, they didn't even take down the stage scaffolding, they just replaced the "Humarine 2008" banners with "Nato - Nyet" banners. Where the beer and cupie doll carnival games had been were new little kiosks giving away Party of Regions and Moscow Patriarchy Orthodox newspapers, or gathering signatures to make Russian another official national language.

The composition of the rally was the usual for PoR: older pensioners waving Soviet flags next to PoR flags (or new half-Soviet-red half-PoR-light-blue flags). The rest were kids that were given a day off from school along with plastic PoR ponchos and flags. They looked like they were at a boring assembly.

Keeping the purpose of their rally in mind, what would you expect the music lineup to be?

The April Fools'/anti-NATO stage, in the foreground a man with the Russian flag and a sign reading "Beating a Turk is not Playing a Schoolboy for a Fool". Anyone know what in the world that means?Let's see how well you guessed:

Queen - I Want to Break Free
Jamiroquai - Something, Not Canned Heat
Metallica - Enter Sandman
...a couple more of the same, couldn't remember their names as I'm not very up on my American culture

Then they brought in their live acts, which I thought would mean no more watching pensioners attempt to hold up under a barrage of American pop. Instead, their first singer sang only one Russian song before launching into Simply the Best by Tina Turner. Wait, don't click on that last link, this YouTube video of Dutch pop idols trying to cover the song will give you a much better idea of what it was like.

We waited through the end of that song act, and the arrival of some more of the attendees. I read the PoR news-pamphlet we picked up, but there was no actual fact-based argument against NATO in it. Never did find one. If anyone has seen a coherent argument against NATO, please let me know. I'd love to know what the objection is.

I'm afraid we didn't make it to the actual speeches, if there were any. We had to leave when the next twenty-year old boy on stage sang (in English):

Nasty, nasty, nasty girl

Every night I see,
you and me

Nasty, nasty nasty girl

Every night I see,
you and me

I wonder,
where are you now.

All of this is the best answer I have to what happened to the Odesan sense of humor: the reflexive anti-Ukrainianism in Odesa has overshadowed the city's famous indifference to politicians and their posturing. Since Odesa has been dragged down into the leaden stupidity of politics, the citizens can't muster the light wittiness that made the city so unique.

It's like a cruel joke.

despite the efforts of the US, Canada, and the newest EU members

As of today, efforts to stop Ukraine and Georgia from getting MAPs of how to eventually get into NATO should succeed: thanks to the craven capitulation of the German and French governments to Russia (IIU has already linked a great article by Taras Kuzio running down the list of how similar the situations of Ukraine and Georgia are to those of other nations that joined NATO, even Germany itself: showing clearly that the motivation for refusal is as a sop to Moscow).

In this environment, I'd like to praise Bush for launching the lead balloon IIU just blogged about. He could have downplayed Ukraine and Georgia's requests. He wouldn't even have needed to come out against, merely gone along with the usual practice at NATO meetings of not airing clashing views. In doing so he would have been more friendly with Russia, and thereby also with France: something that could produce real political dividends at a time when Russia has been suggesting it might open nearby bases to, and France may increase its participation in NATO in Afganistan. On the basis of a cost-benefit analysis, Bush could easily have waffled.

Instead he first visited Ukraine to express his support, and then at the summit he went off script to say:

Welcoming [Ukraine and Georgia] into the Membership Action Plan would send a signal to their citizens that if they continue on the path to democracy and reform they will be welcomed into the institutions of Europe.

It would send a signal throughout the region that these two nations are, and will remain, sovereign and independent states.

A lame-duck President doesn't have a lot of political muscle (or as much temptation to make compromises out of political expediency, to be fair). But Bush pushed as hard as he could to support Ukraine and Georgia, because doing so was right. Whatever else he's done, that deserves commendation.

The newest EU members and Canada are also to be praised. I particularly like the quotes by the Estonian and Latvian presidents (in one of the articles linked by IIU) that  the MAP would be of great benefit because "it forces nations to reform even when they don't want to do it," and "no action plan, no action.

Both statements are sadly approriate in Ukraine's currently political climate. Additional external pressure for reform would have been welcome.